The second leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs, and the top 50 remaining players, head to the Chicagoland area and Olympia Fields Country Club’s North Course. Olympia Fields is a part of the current BMW Championship rota and a favorite of many, myself included. The U.S. Open-style setup led to a challenging four-day week for the field last time there were here, with Jon Rahm defeating Dustin Johnson in a memorable playoff with a final score of 4-under par. Just seven golfers finished even or better on the week, which is a far cry from most weeks on the Tour when the winning score often creeps up into the 20-under range.
The North Course plays as a stretching Par-70, listed at 7,366 yards from the tips. Both Par 5s are north of 600 yards and play as three-shot holes for almost everyone, so we see a higher-than-usual dispersion of wedge shots from 150 yards and in at this track. The bent/Poa mix greens are standard in size but have severe undulations throughout. In 2020, the bluegrass rough was gnarly. It was thick and grown out to four inches, which led to the lack of scoring on the week. We’ll see a lot of different clubs off the tee this week because finding the fairway is paramount. Again, expect this to be a classic U.S. Open-style setup.
For more course notes, check out Ron’s course preview, but here’s an important tidbit about Olympia Fields:
When it was last played as a PGA Tour event for this same BMW Championship back in 2020, Jon Rahm sank a 66-foot birdie putt on the 18th hole to win at only -4 as only five players finished under par. Overall, it played 1.82 strokes over par and ranks as the fifth toughest course in that same period.
With thick rough, strategic bunkering, and treacherous greens, players who don’t bring their best will get beat up in all sorts of ways. Similar to a U.S. Open test, it will examine all aspects of the game. Poor shots will face challenging consequences. While it was expected to play firm and fast with rough approaching six inches by the weekend, nine inches of rain in July, along with another two-plus inches that is forecast through Tuesday, should cause the course to play softer and longer than it already does.
The main reason Olympia Fields plays so tough is that there are so many areas where the course defends itself and is just waiting to penalize golfers for the slightest mistake. And on top of that, other than the first hole, which has the highest birdie rate on the course, there is simply no let-up.
To start with, fairways are pinched in at the landing zones and have strategically placed bunkers that are much deeper than normal and often cause players to pitch out due to having no other options. The Kentucky bluegrass rough is listed at four-plus inches and will definitely be longer by the first tee time on Thursday. The undulating, sloping green complexes present their own set of problems for each golfer. “Death by a million paper cuts” is a great way to describe the toll Olympia Fields will take on most golfers.
The truth is, we don’t yet know how the course will play this week or how it’ll differ, if at all, from the 2020 setup. Cappers can either pick an archetype and fill their betting card, selecting golfers with overlapping skills, or spread themselves out, covering multiple skill sets since the range of outcomes could be vast. I’m of the first ilk. I want multiple guys in contention on Sunday, and if I’m correct in how I think a course will play that week, I want to increase my chances of being rewarded for it.
My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, so I’ll share my opinion on the best way to bet on each golfer in my player pool at this week’s event. When pricing out finishing position bets (T5, T10, T20s, etc.), I’ll often lean towards BetMGM even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. So know the rules of the books that you’re betting on!
Please take advantage of the subscriber-only Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets from myself or other contributors.
*Betting lines are accurate when posted in Discord.
Noonan’s BMW Championship Targets
Viktor Hovland
I had Viktor Hovland in my mind as a target this week, and the confirmation bias was strong when he came out as the top player in my model this week. After an opening round 72 last week in Memphis, Hovland was nine strokes off the lead but crawled back into contention after shooting 64-65 on Friday and Saturday. He finished with a 69 on Sunday, good for a T13 on the week. It was the first time Hovland lost strokes off the tee all year, but his short game continues to improve, and he finished second in strokes gained approach for the week. Hovland was still better than the field in distance and accuracy off the tee, with a few water balls impacting his strokes gained metric, so I’m not overreacting to last week’s blimp. I’m banking on another positive ball-striking week, paired with his improvements on and around the green.
According to our customizable stat database, Hovland ranks second in the field in total strokes gained on “difficult” and “very difficult” scoring conditions over the past nine months. In fact, he’s the only golfer in the field who ranks in the top 10 in every key stat in my model this week. That includes recent tee-to-green form, Par-4 scoring, and total driving. I love Hovland anywhere north of 15/1 if it’s still available when you read this.
I wanted to note a few other players that I’m considering this week, even though I haven’t bet them to win outright as of this writing. They’ll likely be finishing position bets for me this week, with Hovland my only current outright selection:
- Max Homa is rounding into form a bit, though the approach game is still not dialed in like it was earlier in the season. Folks want to attribute Homa’s early-season success to playing in his home state of California, but his results have come down to ball-striking rates more so than Poa putting splits. He’s going off the board around 2/1 for a T10 this week.
- The model loves Russell Henley this week. His propensity for finding fairways helps here, along with his exceptionally consistent iron play. Last week’s T6 comes on the back of his T2 at the Wyndham, so I’ll happily back him at even odds to finish inside the top 20 of this week’s 50-man field.
- I backed Corey Conners last week, and while he came up short after a poor second round, a pair of 65s on the weekend propelled him to a T6 finish. With Olympia Fields rewarding premier ball striking and accuracy, I’m going back to the well on Conners, who’s gained strokes putting in three straight events.
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.