*In case you missed it, here is an excellent discussion on strategies, and favorite plays for every pricing tier for the DraftKings slate. My thoughts are fully encapsulated here in the show. If anyone has specific player questions, I’ll be checking Discord all night until lock.
The Course and Stats That Matter
While TPC Southwind is a “scorers” course, there are many challenging aspects to it. Good shots will be rewarded. Double bogeys will happen. It is pretty much a ball-striking paradise. And with so many approach shots being missed on these tiny 4,300 square foot greens, scrambling skills on Bermuda grass will be vital as well. As seen below, some of the best tee-to-green players of the last decade have been the most recent winners here.
Strokes gained off the tee and on approach were weighted much more heavily this week in the model compared to other weeks (around 35% combined). Another interesting angle related to this is that each of the past six winners was gaining an average of 1.28 strokes ball-striking coming into TPC Southwind. Whoever you choose to play, focus on golfers who enter this week in excellent ball-striking form. Most of the players that I am targeting in my lineups are elite in one or both of those areas.
Due to the combination of a small field, no-cut event on a familiar course to most players in the field, there will most likely be a predictable outcome with an upper-tier player finishing on top. This led me to use more of a “stars and scrubs” approach. This week, one of my main strategies is to jam as much win equity as possible into each lineup. With this being such a small field, DraftKings still has to fill out the 6K range, and there are legitimate high-upside players down there that you can play with confidence thanks to this being a no-cut event. Whether you want to start with a Scheffler-Rahm stack or play four golfers from the $9k range, there are tons of viable options.
With the greens at TPC Southwind being some of the easiest on Tour, I am minimizing putting performance and focusing more on players who can maximize tee-to-green (T2G) play. Each of the past six winners has finished in the top-six overall in T2G. With so many greens being missed, scrambling and around the green play should not be ignored.
Another important metric this week is Par 4 scoring. On a par-70 course with 12 par-4s and only two par-5s, par-4 scoring is heavily weighted. I have that incorporated into both the “Hole Breakdown” model and the “Scoring” model for this week. Each of the last seven winners here in Memphis was inside the top-15 in par-4 scoring. With only two Par 5s on the course, scoring will be more difficult, making stats like Birdie or Better% (BoB) very significant.
With four guaranteed rounds in this week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship, a golfers ceiling becomes very important. While a player may have a poor round or two, if they have a spike performance in the other couple of rounds it can help boost their position up the leaderboard. Over the last 100 rounds here are the number of times each player has gained either 3, 4, or 5+ strokes on the field along with their overall weighted ceiling.
Finally, with TPC Southwind having Bermuda grass rough and greens, I also factored in past player performance on this unique surface. To see the best and worst performers on Bermuda, check out my article from last year.
Out of all the different grasses that golf is played on, Bermuda, and specifically Bermuda rough, is often the most frustrating to hit from. Known as a warm-season grass found mostly in the American south, players that have grown up playing on its surface typically have an advantage over those less experienced.
One of the main reasons it can be so demanding is that when chipping on short grass lies around the greens, the grain (the direction the grass is growing) of the grass can have a considerable influence on the clubface when making contact with the ball. Lies can either be “down-grain” or “into-the-grain”, and both can strongly affect the quality of impact along with trajectory and spin.
Bermuda rough is an entirely different and yet no less challenging issue. It can be very unpredictable to play from due to the grass stems wrapping around the ball. This typically produces either “fliers” over the green or low-tumbling approaches that finish well short of the hole. Either way, spin control is almost non-existent from the rough, and players are typically left scrambling to save par.
Bermuda greens often have severe grain that can affect how much a putt will break. More often than not the ball will break in the direction of the grain which makes green-reading even more of an important skill on this surface. Lag putting on longer putts is also typically more difficult because the grain affects the speed of the greens as well.
Most Important Stats For Success at TPC Southwind
*In order of importance
- SG: Approach
- Fairways Gained
- SG: ARG/Scrambling (Bermuda)
- Proximity: 125-200
- SG: Par 4
- Birdie or Better %
- Good Drive % (Bermuda rough)
- Bogey/Dbl Bogey Avoidance
- SG: Bermuda courses
- SG: Putting (Bermuda)
Weather Forecast – Memphis, Tennessee
FedEx St. Jude Championship – DraftKings Picks
Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options. In essence, the players you see below make up the majority of my player pool for this event.
Core Plays
Upper Tier Plays
Mid-Range Plays
Value Plays
