The top 70 golfers in the FedExCup standings will travel to Tennessee for the FedEx St. Jude Championship which is the opening playoff event of the PGA Tour’s season-long points competition. Nestled in the rolling countryside just southeast of Memphis sits TPC Southwind, which is hosting a playoff event for the second consecutive year.
It is a course that is infamous for its “water balls” and one that historically rewards the best ball-strikers in the world. In the past six events played at this course, winners have included some of the best ball-strikers in the world including Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Abraham Ancer, Daniel Berger (twice), and last year’s winner, Will Zalatoris. TPC Southwind is definitely a course that favors players that are both familiar and competent on Bermuda grass surfaces as its firm and fast greens along with its penal rough thrive in the heat and humidity of the American south.
Rory McIlroy gave a quality summation of what it takes to have success at TPC Southwind. “If you do hit it in the rough, it’s going to be hard to control your ball from there. So first thing, you put it in the fairway and put it in play, but I think the biggest thing around here is your approach play. I think sort of seems to be a lot of approach shots between like 140 yards to 170 yards, so that’s a key distance this week. If you can sort of get your pitching wedge through 7-iron dialed in and get those working really well, I think you’ll always have a good chance around this course.”
The Field
In this year’s newly devised playoff structure, only the top 50 in the FedExCup standings after this week will advance to the BMW Championship. With such a small field, this will be the first time that the opening event of the playoffs will not have a cut. Since this course has hosted a PGA Tour event every year since 1989 we have plenty of course history and data to rely on this week.
With $20 million dollars in prize money on the line, there is plenty of motivation for the top players to not treat this week as a warm-up for the following two playoff events. Players outside of the top-50 can really boost their place in the standings with a good performance this week as points are quadrupled for these first two playoff events, with the winner earning 2,000 points and 70th place earning 12 points.
As for the 70 players that comprise this field, every eligible player will be in attendance including the top three ranked players in the world, Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Jon Rahm. Both Tom Kim (ankle) and Hayden Buckley (ribs) are currently in the field but both have been nursing injuries. Numerous high-profile will be absent from this year’s playoffs including Justin Thomas, Adam Scott, and Shane Lowry. Last year’s champion of this event, Will Zalatoris, is still recovering from back surgery and finished 138th in the point standings. Even with its long history, interestingly, the only player in the field who has won an event at TPC Southwind is Harris English who triumphed at the 2013 St. Jude Classic.
2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship – Betting Narratives and Strategies
While TPC Southwind is a “scorers” course, there are many challenging aspects to it. Good shots will be rewarded. Double bogeys will happen. It is pretty much a ball-striking paradise. And with so many approach shots being missed on these tiny 4,300 square foot greens, scrambling skills on Bermuda grass will be vital as well. As seen below, some of the best tee-to-green players of the last decade have been the most recent winners here.
Strokes gained off the tee and on approach were weighted much more heavily this week in the model compared to other weeks (around 35% combined). Another interesting angle related to this is that each of the past six winners was gaining an average of 1.28 strokes ball-striking coming into TPC Southwind. Whoever you choose to play, focus on golfers who enter this week in excellent ball-striking form. Most of the players that I am targeting in both outrights or finishing bets are elite in one or both of those areas.
Due to the combination of a small field, no-cut event on a familiar course to most players in the field, there will most likely be a predictable outcome with an upper-tier player finishing on top. This led me to focus on the +3500 to +4500 range for outright bets.
With the greens at TPC Southwind being some of the easiest on Tour, I am minimizing putting performance and focusing more on players who can maximize tee-to-green (T2G) play. Each of the past six winners has finished in the top-six overall in T2G. With so many greens being missed, scrambling and around the green play should not be ignored.
Another important metric this week is Par 4 scoring. On a par-70 course with 12 par-4s and only two par-5s, par-4 scoring is heavily weighted. I have that incorporated into both the “Hole Breakdown” model and the “Scoring” model for this week. Each of the last seven winners here in Memphis was inside the top-15 in par-4 scoring. With only two Par 5s on the course, scoring will be more difficult, making stats like Birdie or Better% (BoB) very significant.
With four guaranteed rounds in this week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship, a golfers ceiling becomes very important. While a player may have a poor round or two, if they have a spike performance in the other couple of rounds it can help boost their position up the leaderboard. Over the last 100 rounds here are the number of times each player has gained either 3, 4, or 5+ strokes on the field along with their overall weighted ceiling.
Finally, with TPC Southwind having Bermuda grass rough and greens, I also factored in past player performance on this unique surface. To see the best and worst performers on Bermuda, check out my article from last year.
Out of all the different grasses that golf is played on, Bermuda, and specifically Bermuda rough, is often the most frustrating to hit from. Known as a warm-season grass found mostly in the American south, players that have grown up playing on its surface typically have an advantage over those less experienced.
One of the main reasons it can be so demanding is that when chipping on short grass lies around the greens, the grain (the direction the grass is growing) of the grass can have a considerable influence on the clubface when making contact with the ball. Lies can either be “down-grain” or “into-the-grain”, and both can strongly affect the quality of impact along with trajectory and spin.
Bermuda rough is an entirely different and yet no less challenging issue. It can be very unpredictable to play from due to the grass stems wrapping around the ball. This typically produces either “fliers” over the green or low-tumbling approaches that finish well short of the hole. Either way, spin control is almost non-existent from the rough, and players are typically left scrambling to save par.
Bermuda greens often have severe grain that can affect how much a putt will break. More often than not the ball will break in the direction of the grain which makes green-reading even more of an important skill on this surface. Lag putting on longer putts is also typically more difficult because the grain affects the speed of the greens as well.
Most Important Stats For Success at TPC Southwind
*In order of importance
- SG: Approach
- Fairways Gained
- SG: ARG/Scrambling (Bermuda)
- Proximity: 125-200
- SG: Par 4
- Birdie or Better %
- Good Drive % (Bermuda rough)
- Bogey/Dbl Bogey Avoidance
- SG: Bermuda courses
- SG: Putting (Bermuda)
Weather Forecast – Memphis, Tennessee
FedEx St. Jude Championship – Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Collin Morikawa +3500 (currently +2500)
On a course where gaining strokes on approach is paramount thanks to the third smallest greens on Tour, and where putting is perhaps the easiest anywhere, Morikawa’s profile fits TPC Southwind to perfection. Similar to Will Zalatoris who won here last year, he is one of the best iron players in the world and has gained on approach in 16 of his last 18 starts. His elite ball-striking and gradual improvements with the putter should allow him to separate from the field and give him a great chance to win. He’s had success here in the past as well with finishes of 5th, 26th, and 20th.
(0.68u) BetRivers
Matt Fitzpatrick +3500
While Fitzpatrick has struggled with accuracy off the tee in recent starts, his course history and love for Bermuda grass courses cannot be ignored. With three top-6 finishes in the last four years, TPC Southwind definitely fits his eye. As for his performance on courses with Bermuda grass, going back to 2018, he is the fifth-best player in the world and is gaining an average of 1.36 strokes per round. That is 0.72 strokes above his non-Bermuda baseline. His last five starts on Bermuda courses include five consecutive top-15 finishes.
(0.68u) PointsBet
Rickie Fowler +3500
Finishing 12th in this week’s model, Fowler will look to continue to keep it rolling to close out the season. He’s been the eighth-best player in the world over the past 12 months which includes nine top-15s over the past five months. Before the Scottish Open, he had gained strokes on approach in 18 of his last 19 events. Even more importantly, he is gaining strokes across the board in every category.
(0.68u) BetRivers
Sam Burns +4500 (currently +3500)
Burns will be in his comfort zone this week playing in the heat in the deep south on Bermuda grass, in the same conditions he grew up. And on a course that he has thrived on with finishes of 2nd and 20th over the last two years. He finished 14th at the Wyndham last week and gained 4.6 strokes on approach. Burns is also desperately trying to make this year’s Ryder Cup team and has the skillset needed to have success here at TPC Southwind.
(0.53u) BetRivers
Finishing Position Picks
Top 10
- Jon Rahm -105 (1.1u) – FanDuel
Top 20
- Tyrrell Hatton -115 (1.2u)
- Collin Morikawa -110 (1.2u)
- Tommy Fleetwood +100 (1u)
- Rickie Fowler +100 (1u)
- Russell Henley +130 (1u)
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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images