The PGA Tour’s FedEx Cup Playoffs begin this week just outside Memphis, Tennessee, at TPC Southwind. The Tour has played here annually since 1989, but this is just the second time it’s been in the lead-off spot for the playoffs. The playoff format shifted, moving this event from the top 125 to the top 70 in the FedEx Cup standings. The top 50 advance to next week’s BMW Championship at Olympia Fields, just outside of Chicago, with the top 30 advance to the Tour Championship at Atlanta’s East Lake Golf Club. No one loves the format for the FedEx Cup Playoffs, especially once we get to East Lake’s staggered scoring, but we get the Tour’s best competing against each other for a few weeks in a row, so it’s better than nothing.
The event’s winner has had a finishing score in the teens the past few years, but TPC Southwind can play harder than those results indicate. Multiple doglegs make the 7,243-yard par-70 track play longer than it indicates. The course features zoysia grass fairways, Bermudagrass rough, and Championship Bermudagrass greens, all native to Southeastern United States golf. As a result, scoring chances are few and far between if you don’t find the fairway off the tee. In addition, the greens-in-regulation rate and average proximity to the hole are significantly lower here than at a Tour-average track. As a result, golfers hitting their approach from the fairway will have a significant advantage this week. As will those who can work magic on and around the greens since missing these small green complexes (fourth-smallest on Tour) is inevitable.
For more course notes, check out Ron’s course preview, but here’s an important tidbit about TPC Southwind:
While it is a par-70, TPC Southwind is not a short course like Harbour Town or Pebble Beach. There are eight lengthy par-4s, and the numerous doglegs stretch the course even further. The course also features numerous lakes, streams, and ponds, which add up to 11 holes with water directly in play. In fact, TPC Southwind has the most “water balls” on Tour by far. Since 2003, TPC Southwind’s 6,166 balls in the water are the most at any PGA TOUR course during that stretch. The second highest course is TPC Sawgrass, with a huge drop to 5,089. Because of all the water danger, three different holes average higher than a 5% double bogey or worse rate.
With just two par 5s, scoring chances will be limited. Par 4 scoring will be key as the threat of bogeys will be brought much more into play than has been seen over the past couple of weeks. Overall, there are more holes with a 17% bogey rate (ten) than a 17% birdie rate (six). While the rough isn’t ultra-penalizing, the unpredictability of the Bermuda grass results in numerous bogeys. It becomes a very difficult track to play if you’re missing fairways and greens or splashing it into the water. The greens present another challenge as the fourth smallest on Tour and are heavily guarded by either water or multiple greenside bunkers.
My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, so I’ll share my opinion on the best way to bet on each golfer in my player pool at this week’s event. When pricing out finishing position bets (T5, T10, T20s, etc.), I’ll often lean towards BetMGM even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. So know the rules of the books that you’re betting on!
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Noonan’s FedEx St. Jude Targets
Collin Morikawa
Collin Morikawa has been frustratingly close on a number of occasions this season. Most of those starts came early in the season, with four T10 or better finishes in his first eight starts of 2022, but he’s a great course fit for what I think matters most at TPC Southwind, and he’s flashed that in his previous three starts at this event. Last year’s T5 finish was his best yet, but he’s improved year-over-year every time he’s teed it up here.
He’s one of the most consistent flushers on Tour, ranking inside the top-10 in this field in SG: APP, SG: T2G, and SG: BS, regardless of your sample size of rounds played. He also ranks inside the top ten in all the key driving accuracy metrics that I’m prioritizing this week, including distance from the edge of the fairway and Good Drive %. Morikawa’s basic Par 4 scoring metrics, like Par 4 birdie or better rate (BoB%) and Par 4 average, are middle of the pack, but with our customizable stat database, you can see that he ranks sixth in this field over the past 36 rounds in BoB% from the fairway. That metric tells a better story when handicapping Morikawa’s chances this week since I expect him to be playing from the fairway at one of the field’s highest rates.
Tom Kim
A twisted ankle on Thursday night after Round 1 of The Open Championship paused Tom Kim’s hot run and defense of last week’s Wyndham Championship. You have to think it was precautionary, considering Kim shot 68-68-67 after the ankle injury on his way to a T2 finish in Liverpool. Defending a championship is nice, but there’s a lot of money on the line in the FedEx Cup Playoffs, so I’m confident that TK is ready to go.
This is not the first time I’ve had Morikawa and Kim on the same betting card, and it certainly won’t be the last. Their games are quite similar. Slightly lacking in distance and volatile with the putter, Kim is one of the premier ball-strikers in the field. He’s shown to be a form player in his early career, typically stacking strong finishes on top of strong finishes, which is what we’ve seen from Kim recently. A T6 in Scotland preceded his T2 at The Open, which was his third T8 or better finish in his past five starts. I think we’re getting a discount due to the unknown surrounding his ankle, which makes this a great time to buy at 50/1.
Corey Conners
I’m leaning on a team of elite ball strikers that struggle with the putter, so why not add Corey Conners to the card? I think he’s mispriced at 70/1, and after ranking eighth in my model this week, I can’t pass it up.
Conners has had a string of middling finishes here over the years, but he fits the profile that I’m looking for this week. He’s elite off the tee, mostly due to his accuracy. His approach play, both baseline and recent form, is as consistent as anyone on Tour. And finally, he’s an excellent Par-4 scorer. He had five T20 or better finishes in seven starts leading up to The Open Championship, where he was inside the T20 heading into Sunday before a final round 76 derailed his strong run.
I wanted to note a few other players that I’m considering this week, even though I haven’t bet them to win outright as of this writing, mostly due to their price. They’ll likely be finishing position bets:
- J.T. Poston (75/1) is in tremendous form. Last week’s T7 at the Wyndham Championship was Poston’s fourth T7 or better finish in his past five starts.
- The last time we saw Brian Harman (45/1), he was dominating the weekend at Royal Liverpool, but he posted a T2, T9, and T12 heading into The Open, so his performance didn’t come out of nowhere. TPC Southwind fits his game well, evident by Harman’s T3 here last season.
- It was cool to see Lucas Glover (100/1) find the winner’s circle again last week, but just like Harman, the win didn’t come out of nowhere if you’ve been paying attention. Glover missed the cut at his previous start at the 3M Open, but a T4, T6, and solo fifth preceded it, so you knew he was close. He tied Harman here last year, finishing T3.
FanDuel Finishing Position Parlays
Rickie Fowler, Tommy Fleetwood, and Tyrrell Hatton – T40 (-127)
Unlike most other books I’m familiar with, FanDuel allows you to parlay finishing position bets. I played a number of these last season with a 9.85% ROI, so I’ll continue it this season. If it’s not for you, feel free to skip it.
Now, the very premise of the bet is flawed because the expected value is negative since players are competing for the same finishing positions. If the bet is three T40s like this one, when one leg of your parlay finishes above the threshold, there’s now one less spot available in that range for the other leg(s) to also come in. I know the math is terrible. Spare me. But let’s be honest. Some bets are just fun, and these are fun for me.
We a small-field no-cut event, the top 40 market is a bit trickier. With that said, FanDuel remains the best in the market for most of these prices, and I’m taking three guys that I considered betting outright.
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