My approach to golf betting and daily fantasy is deeply rooted in statistical modeling. It’s not the only way to go about handicapping a golf tournament, but I think it’s the best way. It helps me eliminate biases and identify golfers purely based on whether they are in good form and if their game syncs up with the course they are about to play.
In this article, I will put together a weighted statistical model specific to the course and tournament. The statistics are chosen and weighted based on historical data from previous tournaments. In addition to course specific data, I will also look at recent form and any other potential relevant angle. The model accounts for the last 50 measured rounds, with the more recent rounds receiving increasingly more weight.
TPC Twin Cities provides a gettable track for the golfers that deploy the correct strategy. The winning scores of the first three tournaments played here have been around between 15 and 20 under. Despite it’s relative ease, the course can provide a challenge for wayward shots. Personally, I think the amount of trouble is overstated on this course, but there are a handful of holes with water in play that include some difficult carries. There are also some holes with water that aren’t in play unless you are a 20 handicap that has a chance to top the ball 20 yards. Over the last three years, approach, putting, and Par 5 scoring pop as the most important stats while around the green game has been largely irrelevant. There are three long par 5s, three long par 3s, with the dispersion of the other thirteen holes pretty spread out. In my model, the course specific stats I added were the proximity distances that occurred above tour average, Par 5s of 550-600 yards in length, good drives gained, and current form
This Week’s Stats
SG: Approach — Approach shots are the bread and butter of every statistical model. TPC Twin Cities highlights approach play more than most courses on tour. The players who are sticking their approaches the closest will be the ones that have the advantage.
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Mark Hubbard
- Lucas Glover
- Gary Woodland
- Aaron Rai
- Nate Lashley
- Chez Reavie
- Emiliano Grillo
- Adam Hadwin
- Kevin Roy
Opportunities Gained — Opportunities gained is a vital stat because it tells you who is giving themselves birdie looks. Greens in regulation percentage is somewhat fluky because they could be hitting greens and still leaving themselves 40-foot putts. We want guys who are gaining shots on approach by giving themselves birdie putts inside 15-feet.
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Lucas Glover
- Justin Thomas
- Ludvig Aberg
- Eric Cole
- Chez Reavie
- Austin Ecroat
- Stephen Jaeger
- Ryan Palmer
- Ryan Moore
Good Drives Gained — Good Drives Gained refers to fairway percentage plus balls that came to rest in the primary rough that resulted in a green in regulation. If you take a look at the leaderboard over the last three tournaments at TPC Twin Cities, nearly every player in the top ten gained good drives on the field. Distance is important, but it isn’t necessary as Michael Thompson proved in 2020.
- Matthew NeSmith
- Lucas Glover
- Emiliano Grillo
- Doug Ghim
- Ryan Armour
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Sam Bennett
- Ryan Palmer
- Doc Redman
- Russell Knox
Recent Form — We obviously want to roster golfers who are playing well at the moment. Recent form takes into account the total strokes gained over the last few tournaments.
- Tony Finau
- JT Poston
- Davis Riley
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Brendan Steele
- Adam Svensson
- Mark Hubbard
- Cam Davis
- Nick Hardy
- Sungjae Im
SG: Par 5 Scoring 550-600 — All three of the par threes fall into this yardage bucket at TPC Twin Cities. For some of the shorter hitters, them may be looking at a wedge into the greens, while some of the bombers will be able to get there in two.
- Ludvig Aberg
- Stephan Jaeger
- Adam Long
- Aaron Rai
- Mark Hubbard
- Davis Thompson
- Ryan Gerard
- Sahith Theegala
- Dylan Wu
- Grayson Murray
Proximity: 175-200 yards — This yardage bucket has the biggest discrepancy at TPC Twin Cities in terms of percent above tour average for this approach shot.
- Gary Woodland
- Justin Lower
- Emiliano Grillo
- Trey Mullinax
- Ludvig Aberg
- Chez Reavie
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Cam Champ
- Stephan Jaeger
- Sepp Straka
Proximity: 200+ — There are three long Par 5s and three long Par 3s that can be soaked up by this bucket. Scoring well on the long Par 5s and 200+ Par 3s will be critical.
- Augusto Nunez
- Justin Suh
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Eric Cole
- Kevin Tway
- Tom Hoge
- Luke List
- Lucas Glover
- Charley Hoffman
- Tony Finau
SG: Putting (Bentgrass) — Plain and simple you have to have a great putting week to win a PGA tournament, but at events like the 3M open, you have to do so at a high rate given the low scores that often populate the leaderboard. Here are the best bentgrass putters.
- Justin Lower
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout
- Beau Hossler
- Patrick Rodgers
- Alex Noren
- Justin Suh
- Eric Cole
- Harry Higgs
- JT Poston
- Mackenzie Hughes
Correlated Courses: This is a measure of total strokes gained on the top five courses I believe are most closely correlated with TPC Twin Cities
- Justin Thomas
- Kevin Streelman
- Chez Reavie
- Sahith Theegala
- Matt Kuchar
- Gary Woodland
- Alex Noren
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Austin Eckroat
- Eric Cole
Course Form — This is a measure of average strokes gained at TPC Twin Cities
- Sungjae Im
- Tony Finau
- Adam Hadwin
- Emiliano Grillo
- Greyson Sigg
- Callum Tarren
- Adam Long
- Brice Garnett
- Alex Noren
- Hank Lebioda
Peaking and Fading
One of the flaws that I often come across in modeling is focusing on a fixed range of time or rounds and taking a wider view to determine if a player is peaking or fading leading up to an event. For instance, a player’s high rating in a model that only focuses on the last 50 rounds could be a result of playing well four months ago. In this section I will lay out the players who have improved or faded statistically over the course of their last 50 rounds.
Peaking
- Austin Eckroat
- JJ Spaun
- Doug Ghim
- Cam Champ
- Trevor Cone
Fading
- Tony Finau
- Satoshi Kodaira
- Gary Woodland
- Ben Martin
- Michael Kim
Overall Statistical Top 50
| 1 | Eric Cole | Cole is a first-timer at the 3M, but I think his game is currently stronng enough to compete and even win the event. He rates out top ten in every metric including 4th in short term course fit, 10th in long term course fit, 7th in form, 9th in correlated courses, and 7th in putting. He’s a sure first win bet for me. |
| 2 | Chez Reavie | Reavie may be a guy that needs a bit of luck with the putter this week cause that’s been his struggle, but he’s otherwise been solid. He rates out 3rd and 1st in the short and long term course fit, 11th in form, and 3rd in correlated courses. He’s an outright bet for me. |
| 3 | Austin Eckroat | The peaking metric has been an excellent indicator of who is going to play well at upcoming tournaments. Last week Harman, Straka, and Fleetwood all hit the peaking top 5. Eckroat checks that box along by improving to 5th in the short term course fit. |
| 4 | Sepp Straka | Comes in at first in recent form, 8th in short term course fit, and also lands fairly high on the correlated course metric at 25th. He has a win in the last month and doesn’t seem like he’s going to let up soon. |
| 5 | Hideki Matsuyama | Hideki would probably be at the top of this model if it wasn’t for his abysmal bentgrass putting. As we know, putting can be volatile and a spike week is well within his range of out comes. Every other metric is 13th or better |
| 6 | Mark Hubbard | Hasn’t played well at the correlated courses, but Hubbard rates out top ten in both short and long term course fit as well as being a solid bentgrass putter. |
| 7 | Emiliano Grillo | Grillo’s game is definitely in the right direction. He rates out 3rd in recent form and 4th in correlated courses. His putting is trending up as well despite being his achilles heel. |
| 8 | Aaron Rai | Rai is also a first-timer and not the best bent putter, but rates out 6th in short term course fit and 4th in recent form. |
| 9 | Tony Finau | Finau is fading fast, but rates out 2nd in correlated courses and is obviously familiar with success on this course having won the 3M last year. |
| 10 | Gary Woodland | Woodland is also a fading player statistically, but it’s tough to ignore top 20 rankings in long term fit, recent form, correlated courses and coure form. |
| 11 | Ludvig Aberg | |
| 12 | Adam Hadwin | |
| 13 | Sungjae Im | |
| 14 | Stephan Jaeger | |
| 15 | Nate Lashley | |
| 16 | Lucas Glover | |
| 17 | Christiaan Bezuidenhout | |
| 18 | Doug Ghim | |
| 19 | Kevin Roy | |
| 20 | Ryan Moore | |
| 21 | Ryan Palmer | |
| 22 | Greyson Sigg | |
| 23 | Kevin Streelman | |
| 24 | Vincent Norrman | |
| 25 | Cam Young | |
| 26 | Justin Thomas | |
| 27 | Ryan Armour | |
| 28 | Callum Tarren | |
| 29 | Sahith Theegala | |
| 30 | Carson Young | |
| 31 | Nicolai Hojgaard | |
| 32 | Taylor Pendrith | |
| 33 | JJ Spaun | |
| 34 | CT Pan | |
| 35 | Akshay Bhatia | |
| 36 | Cam Davis | |
| 37 | Lee Hodges | |
| 38 | Trevor Cone | |
| 39 | Kevin Yu | |
| 40 | Justin Suh | |
| 41 | Scott Piercy | |
| 42 | Dylan Wu | |
| 43 | Justin Lower | |
| 44 | Cam Champ | |
| 45 | Charley Hoffman | |
| 46 | Tom Hoge | |
| 47 | Michael Kim | |
| 48 | KH Lee | |
| 49 | JT Poston | |
| 50 | Ryan Fox |