Brian Harman’s dominant performance at Royal Liverpool put a bow on Major Season, and we have just two events remaining leading up to the FedEx Cup Playoffs. While the field might be a bit of a letdown post-links swing, there are still plenty of betting opportunities on the board this week. The playoff field moving from 125 to 70 has put an increasingly large number of players on the bubble, and with just the 3M Open and Wyndham Championship left on the schedule, the chances to improve your position or punch your ticket are dwindling away.
That helps improve the strength of this week’s field as the Tour moves back stateside to Minnesota for the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities. TPC Twin Cities is a Par 71, 7,431-yard course that features bentgrass fairways and greens, native prairie grasses, and 13 water hazards in play that challenge golfers off the tee. Shockingly, stray drives that land in the water often lead to crooked numbers. In addition, last year, the course had the fifth-most penalty strokes per round on Tour. This makes driving accuracy and Bogey Avoidance more of a premium this week compared to most other “easy scoring” courses. Even so, there should be numerous birdie opportunities and a winning score in the upper teens or higher. With the greens also playing very soft and receptive here over the years, it basically comes down to a test of who can keep their ball dry off the tee, followed by a ball striking and a putting contest.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here are a few interesting nuggets about TPC Twin Cities:
After two straight events on links-style courses, the 3M Open also signals a return to the familiar confines of parkland-style golf. But TPC Twin Cities is not your typical parkland course. With 27 different bodies of water spread throughout the property, along with a full-sized housing development, it displays as more of a “Florida” course than one up north in Minnesota.
Last year the course had the fifth most penalty strokes per round on Tour and had the most “water balls” out of any other course, with a total of 303. This makes control off the tee and Bogey Avoidance more of a premium here than most other “easy scoring” courses. Also, with the course not being completely lined with trees, there are open areas for the wind to have more of an impact, which we saw last year.
My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, so I’ll share my opinion on the best way to bet on each golfer in my player pool at this week’s event. When pricing out finishing position bets (T5, T10, T20s, etc.), I’ll often lean towards BetMGM even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. So know the rules of the books that you’re betting on!
Please take advantage of the subscriber-only Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets from myself or other contributors.
*Betting lines are accurate when posted in Discord.
Noonan’s 3M Open Targets
Ludvig Aberg
The former top amateur in the world has competed in five events since turning pro, and we’ve already seen glimpses of why he’s widely regarded as one of the top prospects on Tour. He’s coming off of a missed cut in Scotland, but he’s finished in the top three in SG: OTT in all five of his starts, leading the field off the tee in Canada and Detroit. He’s flashing a rare combination of elite distance and accuracy off the tee, which matters immensely at TPC Twin Cities due to the length of the course and hazards off the tee.
In his last start stateside, we saw his approach game at TPC Deere Run resemble what Texas Tech fans grew accustomed to, gaining 0.97 strokes per round, which was 14th for the week. His final-round 63 topped his impressive second-round 64, which resulted in his first top-five finish on the PGA Tour. I think he gets another ‘first’ this week in Minnesota.
Eric Cole
This is a familiar face for those that have been riding with me all season. Eric Cole has been a profitable player to back this season, as he typically finds his way onto my T40 section most weeks, but I’m willing to back him to find the winner’s circle at an opening price of 60/1.
While not an elite driver of the ball, Cole ranks well in our Distance From Edge of the Fairway metric, even though his drive accuracy mark is slightly below average. That tells me that when he misses the fairway, he doesn’t usually miss by much. He’s also played well at corollary courses like PGA National, Muirfield Village, and TPC River Highlands, where avoiding trouble off the tee is paramount. Cole has also played well when the scoring gets low, with strong showings in Mexico and at the Byron Nelson, and he ranks fourth in this field in birdie or better rate over the past 24 rounds. I’ll back him in the finishing position market again as well, but 60/1 was a buy.
Austin Eckroat
Here’s another familiar face and frequent visitor to my weekly betting card. I’m comfortable admitting that Austin Eckroat’s May-June heater is over, but I’m still bullish on the long-term prospects for the 24-year-old, and he’s an excellent course fit for TPC Twin Cities.
His irons have cooled off a bit after he gained strokes on approach in six of seven starts before his recent cool-down, but he’s not far removed from rattling off five straight T30s, including a T10 at the U.S. Open. He’s slightly above field average both in distance and accuracy off the tee and has shown an ability to make birdies in bunches, with top-five finishes at the Byron Nelson (T2, -22) and Puntacana (solo 5th, -16).
Garrick Higgo
It feels like Garrick Higgo has been around for years, but he just turned 24 years old. There’s a lot of upside to the young South African’s game, and he’s shown to be a form horse so far in the early days of his professional golf career.
Higgo was a promising prospect, with multiple wins on the Sunshine and Challenge Tour before breaking through and winning the Open de Portugal back in 2020, which was just his sixth start on the DP World Tour. He put together an incredible four-week run in the spring of 2021, going T4, Win, T8, Win before teeing it up for the first time on the PGA Tour, which was a win at the one-and-done Palmetto Championship. He’s been surprisingly quiet since, but he’s caught my attention with back-to-back strong showings at the John Deere (T21) and Scottish Open (T19).
His driver is a weapon. He’s gained strokes off the tee in 11 of his past 12 starts flashing elite distance and accuracy. That’s a priority for me this week, so I’m looking to ride the fit and, hopefully, a hot hand.
FanDuel Finishing Position Parlays
Sungjae Im and Sepp Straka – T40 (+122)
Unlike most other books I’m familiar with, FanDuel allows you to parlay finishing position bets. I played a number of these last season with a 9.85% ROI, so I’ll continue it this season. If it’s not for you, feel free to skip it.
Now, the very premise of the bet is flawed because the expected value is negative since players are competing for the same finishing positions. If the bet is two T40s like this one, when one leg of your parlay finishes above the threshold, there’s now one less spot available in that range for the other leg(s) to also come in. I know the math is terrible. Spare me. But let’s be honest. Some bets are just fun, and these are fun for me.
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