Research and Stat Model: The Open

My approach to golf betting and daily fantasy is deeply rooted in statistical modeling. It’s not the only way to go about handicapping a golf tournament, but I think it’s the best way. It helps me eliminate biases and identify golfers purely based on whether they are in good form and if their game syncs up with the course they are about to play.

In this article, I will put together a weighted statistical model specific to the course and tournament. The statistics are chosen and weighted based on historical data from previous tournaments. In addition to course specific data, I will also look at recent form and any other potential relevant angle. The model accounts for the last 50 measured rounds, with the more recent rounds receiving increasingly more weight.

Hoylake has hosted the Open Championship twice in the last 15 years or so. Tiger and Rory took home the Claret Jug in those two years. I’ve done an awful lot of research into the new routing and layout. I’ve also included correlated courses that fit the same criteria in terms of key stats and course type. As with all courses that aren’t regulars on the tour, creating a model is somewhat speculation. However, I do think that I’ve delved into the course enough to create a model that will help us narrow down the field.

This Week’s Stats

SG: Approach — Approach shots are the bread and butter of every statistical model. Hoylake is going to be no different in the fact that second shots are going to be the most important. Once again, it’s a significant chunk of the overall model.

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Russell Henley
3. Hideki Matsuyama
4. Adam Schenk
5. Collin Morikawa
6. Xander Schauffele
7. Gary Woodland
8. Jon Rahm
9. Justin Rose
10. Rickie Fowler
11. _

Greens in Regulation — Greens in regulation is a vital stat because it tells you who is giving themselves birdie looks. Being able to navigate a links style course often means being able to get up and down from around the green or shaved run offs, however if we can find someone who hits an abnormal amount of greens, they’ll have a massive leg up on their competition.

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Collin Morikawa
3. Jon Rahm
4. Corey Conners
5. Rory McIlroy
6. Xander Schauffele
7. Wyndham Clark
8. Rickie Fowler
9. Denny McCarthy
10. Tommy Fleetwood
11. _

Driving Metric—- The fairways are pretty tight at Hoylake and there is out of bounds lurking on several holes. This metric combines a few different metrics off-the-tee but has an emphasis on players who can keep the ball on the map.

1. Patrick Cantlay
2. Corey Conners
3. Si Woo Kim
4. Collin Morikawa
5. Tommy Fleetwood
6. Viktor Hovland
7. Sepp Straka
8. Abraham Ancer
9. Tony Finau
10. Xander Schauffele
11. _

Par 3 Scoring: 200+ – Though I haven’t used the previous two tournaments a ton because of how long ago they took place, one thing that I did notice is the long par 3s were important to success. Depending on if the wind is up, the Par 3s could end up being huge numbers for guys who miss the green.

1. Jordan Smith
2. Rory McIlroy
3. Tony Finau
4. Cam Young
5. Patrick Cantlay
6. Thomas Pieters
7. S. Sharma
8. Thomas Detry
9. JT Poston
10. KH Lee
11. _

Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 — Seven of the holes this week are in this bucket (give or take a few yards).

1. Xander Schauffele
2. Ryan Fox
3. Rory McIlroy
4. Scottie Scheffler
5. Bryson Dechambeau
6. Wyndham Clark
7. Tyrrell Hatton
8. Hideki Matsuyama
9. Jason Day
10. Sungjae Im
11. _

Par 5 Scoring— Par 5s are going to be important regardless of how this tournament plays out. If this tournament turns out to be a difficult test, the Par 5s are going to be crucial to getting the few birdies that are attainable. As of right now the wind doesn’t look to be too bad, so we may see guys attack this course and in that instance guys how have eagle chances will have the advantage on the field.

1. Rickie Fowler
2. Jordan Spieth
3. Andrew Putnam
4. Patrick Cantlay
5. Scottie Scheffler
6. Matthew Southgate
7. Jon Rahm
8. Brooks Koepka
9. Wyndham Clark
10. Cam Smith
11. _

Recent Form — We obviously want to roster golfers who are playing well at the moment. Recent form takes into account the total strokes gained over the last few tournaments.

1. Rory McIlroy
2. Scottie Scheffler
3. Rickie Fowler
4. Tommy Fleetwood
5. Denny McCarthy
6. Min Woo Lee
7. Wyndham Clark
8. Collin Morikawa
9. Cam Smith
10. Patrick Cantlay

Bogey Avoidance — Tossing this in to the model because most majors require guys to get up and down for par and have the skill to avoid bogeys even when the going gets tough

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Wyndham Clark
3. Tommy Fleetwood
4. Jason Day
5. Patrick Cantlay
6. Hideki Matsuyama
7. Tyrrell Hatton
8. Min Woo Lee
9. Harris English
10. Xander Schauffele
11. _

Strokes Gained: Correlated Courses — This stat takes into account courses with similar attributes to Hoylake and which players have gained the most strokes on average at those courses.

1. Jon Rahm
2. Justin Rose
3. Dustin Johnson
4. Jordan Spieth
5. Rory McIlroy
6. Rickie Fowler
7. Xander Schauffele
8. Tony Finau
9. Justin Thomas
10. Scottie Scheffler
11. _

Putting (Slow/Average): Apparently the greens are going to be running between a 10 and 11 on the stimp this week, which is relatively slow for a PGA tour golf course. Here are the players who have traditionally putted well on the slower surfaces.

1. Tyrrell Hatton
2. Jason Day
3. Matt Fitzpatrick
4. Patrick Reed
5. Phil Mickelson
6. Brendan Todd
7. Andrew Putnam
8. Patrick Cantlay
9. Tommy Fleetwood
10. Jon Rahm
11. _

Peaking and Fading

One of the flaws that I often come across in modeling is focusing on a fixed range of time or rounds and taking a wider view to determine if a player is peaking or fading leading up to an event. For instance, a player’s high rating in a model that only focuses on the last 50 rounds could be a result of playing well four months ago. In this section I will lay out the players who have improved or faded statistically over the course of their last 50 rounds.

Peaking

1. Tommy Fleetwood
2. Si Woo Kim
3. Corey Conners
4. Sepp Straka
5. Brian Harman
6. _

Fading

1. Max Homa
2. Sungjae Im
3. Justin Thomas
4. Jon Rahm
5. Jason Day
6. _

Stat Model Top 50 Rankings

1	Patrick Cantlay	Cantlay rates out top five in the driving metric, 200+ par 3s, bogey avoidance, and Par 5 scoring. He;s also tenth in overall form and eighth in the putting metric.
2	Scottie Scheffler	Scottie rates out first in both short and long term course fit, third in recent form, and tenth in correlated courses. He’s been insane tee to green, perhaps the switch to slower/flatter greens this week cures his putting woes.
3	Rory McIlroy	Fresh off the win at the Scottish, Rory checks in at number one in recent form, and top fives in SG: OTT, 200+ Par 3s, GIRs gained, and 450-500 Par 4s.
4	Rickie Fowler	Fowler is top ten in form, approach, Par 5s, GIRs gained, and sixth in correlated courses. Rickie doesn’t rate out well in the putting metric which is unusual for him, but the numbers don’t lie.
5	Xander Schauffele	Xander rates out seventh in correlated courses, and then top ten in approach, driving metric, avoiding bogeys, GIRs, and is tops in the 450-500 Par 4 range.
6	Jon Rahm	Rahm has kind of been off the map recently, but comes into The Open with a top ranking in correlated courses and tenth in the putting metric. He only rates out 21st in recent course form which is a little troubling, but he is still one of the most talented golfers in the world.
7	Collin Morikawa	Morikawa gets a huge lift from his accuracy off the tee. Because he’s such a steady ball-striker, it’s unlikely he gets in toruble off the tee which is important for Hoylake. He’s also eighth in recent form (despite the prevailing notion he isn’t playing well) and 11th in correlated courses.
8	Tommy Fleetwood	Fleetwood is playing really well and checks in as a top ten ranked player due to his driving metric, GIRs, and bogey avoidance.
9	Denny McCarthy	Denny is inside the top 25 for both short and long term course fit, but he really stands out in recent form, correlated courses, and obviously putting.
10	Justin Rose	Rose ranks second in correlated courses, and is 15th or better in approach, bogey avoidance, and both the Par 4 and Par 5 metrics.
11	Russell Henley
12	Tyrrell Hatton
13	Corey Conners
14	Hideki Matsuyama
15	Tom Kim
16	Tony Finau
17	Dustin Johnson
18	Cam Smith
19	Wyndham Clark
20	Adam Schenk
21	Brian Harman
22	Matt Fitzpatrick
23	Viktor Hovland
24	Sepp Straka
25	Si Woo Kim
26	Sungjae Im
27	Shane Lowry
28	Jordan Spieth
29	Jason Day
30	Chris Kirk
31	Gary Woodland
32	Jordan Smith
33	Andrew Putnam
34	Keegan Bradley
35	Brooks Koepka
36	Joaquin Niemann
37	Talor Gooch
38	Harris English
39	JT Poston
40	Yannick Paul
41	Emiliano Grillo
42	Nick Taylor
43	Max Homa
44	Louis Oosthuizen
45	Justin Thomas
46	Patrick Reed
47	Brendon Todd
48	Sam Burns
49	Cam Young
50	Abraham Ancer