2023 Genesis Scottish Open – Round 4 Betting and Showdown Picks

Weather Forecast – North Berwick, Scotland

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Due to forecasted high winds on Sunday, tee times for the final round of the Genesis Scottish Open will be 1:45-3:57 a.m. EST in threesomes off Nos. 1 and 10. If you are going to catch the final round live, you are going to have either get up early or stay up through the night. Consistent high winds will be the main storyline, along with quite the battle of big names on top of the leaderboard which includes Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry, and Scottie Scheffler. The latter three are among the best “wind” players in the world. McIlroy has one of the highest ball flights on Tour, but let’s remember, he also grew up right down the road from the Scottish coast and has plenty of experience in these conditions. As far as betting values go and predicted outcomes, I think Fleetwood at +700 is the best value and is my pick to win. He is only two shots back and is the only one of the contenders to gain across the board in every strokes gained category. Making short putts in the wind will be crucial and Fleetwood ranks as one of the best on Tour in these conditions and especially on the greens.

Round 2 Betting Matchups Model

*Strokes Gained Rating (SG RTG) is the key metric that combines all the weighted categories in the model. Some players (or matchups) may not be listed due to not having enough sample size data. Also, historical data was removed with so many DP World Tour players not having accessible round SG metrics.