*In case you missed it, here is an excellent discussion on strategies, and favorite plays for every pricing tier for the DraftKings slate. My thoughts are fully encapsulated here in the show. If anyone has specific player questions, I’ll be checking Discord all night until lock.
With upwards of 75 players from the DP World Tour who have played little to no rounds in PGA Tour events, the normal model was simplified this week. However, I think it’s going to be quite accurate because full strokes gained data was input into each of the categories, even for the DP World Tour players. Recent and longer-term history is included as usual, as well as a very thorough Links course ranking based on data for every links-style course going back to 2014. Also included is DataGolf’s powerful top-10 finish prediction metric as well as the current Vegas odds to win.
On top of that, there are just as many PGA Tour players making the trip across the pond to the mostly unfamiliar surroundings of a hybrid links Scottish course. There is a distinct advantage to being a European player at the Scottish Open as most have much more experience on these types of courses. With these factors in mind, there is a very specific group of players that I’m targeting this week for all types of wagers.
The first box I am looking to check is with players who have had past success on links-style courses or at The Renaissance Club in particular. When analyzing the Strokes Gained per round history (minimum 20 rounds) on these types of courses there is a clear top-six in the field led by Jordan Spieth at 2.49. The other five players include Xander Schauffele (2.13), Tommy Fleetwood (1.77), Rory McIlroy (1.76), Justin Rose (1.73), and Tyrrell Hatton (1.73). Since this is not a “true” links course and his putting has been erratic, I’m out on Spieth this week. I’m not playing McIlroy either who spoke of his disdain for this course back in 2021 when he missed the cut. I also foresee him using this as a warm-up for next week’s Open.
Digging into the strokes gained categories for the Renaissance Club, in gusty conditions last year, the Driving Accuracy rate was only 49%. Yet it ranked as the second easiest course in “Missed Fairway Penalty”. A big part of the reason for that is there just aren’t many hazards to trouble players off the tee. Greens were still hit in regulation 59% of the time. If the winds are a factor, everyone will struggle to hit these fairways which rank on the narrow side at only 31.5 yards wide on average.
Though atypical of links-style courses where shorter hitters can use rollouts on tee shots to make up for lost carry distance, Driving Distance appears to be a definite advantage at The Renaissance Club. Last year, the average driving distance was 295 yards which is well above the Tour average. And with the reputation of playing longer than its yardage, along with four par-4s over 475 yards, a driveable par-4, and three lengthy par-5s, distance off the tee brings many advantages. There are also a couple of longer carries off the tee into potentially gusty winds that favor the longer hitters as well.
While shorter hitters like Aaron Rai and Tommy Fleetwood can definitely have success here, last year’s leaderboard was filled with longer drivers of the ball including Schauffele, Kurt Kitayama, Thomas Detry, Dean Burmester and Rasmus Hojgaard.
On approaching the green this week, players will have a variety of options. If winds remain on the calmer side, longer players off the tee will have the advantage of hitting higher lofted irons into the proper quadrants on the tiered greens. Whether winds are high or not, thanks to Doak creating a firm surface with no bunkers or water in front of the greens, all players will have the option to utilize the ground game to run their ball onto the greens.
When the weather cooperates, hitting these greens is not even a remote issue. Out of the 77 players to make the cut in 2021, only 13 of them had a GIR rate of under 70%. 15 players were above 80%! That being said, with the greens being so huge and undulating, proximity to the hole and positioning approach shots relative to the pin, and leaving an uphill putt is vital. The course definitely favors strong iron players as in that same year seven of the top-15 on the leaderboard had gained at least 4.6 strokes on approach.
Similar to off-the-tee, last year’s windy conditions allowed the Renaissance Club to play much tougher in every area as it ranked as the fourth toughest course to gain strokes on approach. With last year’s event being the only one with ShotLink, a whopping 48% of approach shots came from outside of 175 yards.
While scrambling and performance around the greens would seem to be important on most links courses, this is another stat at the Renaissance Club that is weather-dependent. In 2021 with calm winds and players hitting so many greens in regulation, it didn’t factor in much. Out of the top 20 that year, only four players gained more than two strokes around the green, with seven of them actually losing strokes. But if greens are firm and the winds increase as they did last year, the undulating nature of the green surfaces will repel shots into the pot bunkers and runoff areas, and that will produce chips off of tight lies.
The green complexes, in a word, can be described as adventurous. They are firm, large, and well-contoured with a variety of possible pin positions. Last year these greens ranked as the fifth most difficult on which to gain strokes. Putting inside 15 feet, especially in windy conditions, will be crucial.
Some players have commented that the breaks are very difficult to identify while others have said they look much more severe than they play. One thing is for sure, the speed will be much slower than typical PGA Tour courses and may cause some players to start slow while they adjust. With such large green surfaces, lag putting and three-putt avoidance will be huge this week as last year’s tournament saw one of the highest 3-putt rates on Tour at 4.91%.
Most Important Stats For Success at The Renaissance Club
*In order of importance
- SG: Approach
- SG: Putting
- SG: Links/Wind Courses
- Proximity: 175+ yds
- SG: ARG/Scrambling
- Three-putt AVD
- Bogey AVD
- Par 4: 450-500
- Birdie or Better %
- Driving Distance
Weather Forecast – North Berwick, Scotland
Genesis Scottish Open – DraftKings Picks
Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options. In essence, the players you see below make up the majority of my player pool for this event.
Core Plays
Upper-Tier Plays
Mid-Range Plays
Value Plays
