My approach to golf betting and daily fantasy is deeply rooted in statistical modeling. It’s not the only way to go about handicapping a golf tournament, but I think it’s the best way. It helps me eliminate biases and identify golfers purely based on whether they are in good form and if their game syncs up with the course they are about to play.
In this article, I will put together a weighted statistical model specific to the course and tournament. The statistics are chosen and weighted based on historical data from previous tournaments. In addition to course specific data, I will also look at recent form and any other potential relevant angle. The model accounts for the last 50 measured rounds, with the more recent rounds receiving increasingly more weight.
John Deere is one of the easiest courses on tour. We usually see elevated statistical performances relative to the tour average in almost all categories. The final score should be relatively low, however this is a supremely weak field so maybe the winner doesn’t need to go super low. TPC Deere Run requires approach shots to be dialed in and putts to be made. Given the low scores, you can’t really miss a lot of greens. Approach and birdies or better (easy courses) will be very important along with bentgrass putting. Strokes gained off the tee and around the green are fairly muted, but I did add good drives gained as there is an advantage to being in the fairway or at the very least missing on the correct side. The key distance is the 125-150 distance. Winners also gain a bunch of strokes on the three par 5s, so that will be included in the model as well. To round out the model we’ll look at overall form and course history.
SG: Approach — Approach shots are the bread and butter of every statistical model. At Deere Run, approach is more important than usual. Difficulty off the tee is down, so guys need to gain strokes with their second shot. Around the green isn’t overly important because if you’re missing the green, you likely don’t have enough birdie opportunities to contend
- Mark Hubbard
- Sepp Straka
- Alex Smalley
- Emiliano Grillo
- Eric Cole
- Ben Martin
- Nate Lashley
- Russell Henley
- David Lipsky
- Ryan Palmer
- _
Birdies or Better on Easy Courses — We’re going birdies or better this week instead of opportunities because it’s not good enough to have the opportunity, we need the player that is going to convert those birdie putts. I want golfers who are going to not only hit the greens, but stick it close at Deere Run and make the putt
- Ryan Palmer
- Taylor Montgomery
- Cameron Young
- Tyler Duncan
- Harry Higgs
- Alex Smalley
- Taylor Moore
- Eric Cole
- Ben An
- Patrick Rodgers
- _
Good Drives Gained—- The rough is penal at Deere Run. The good news is the fairways are pretty easy to find. That said, there has to be some off the tee element in every model. Many of the holes have slight angles to them that require positioning off the tee.
- Matthew NeSmith
- Russell Henley
- Micheal Kim
- Ryan Armour
- Doc Redman
- Lucas Glover
- Emiliano Grillo
- Dennis McCarthy
- Kevin Yu
- Alex Smalley
- _
Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 – This range has the plurality of holes and a quick glance at the Par 4 efficiency of previous tournaments shows that the top five of the leaderboard gained on the field in this yardage range.
- Denny McCarthy
- Taylor Montgomery
- Adam Hadwin
- Stephan Jaeger
- Callem Tarren
- Russell Henley
- Brendon Todd
- Eric Cole
- Taylor Moore
- Emiliano Grillo
TPC Deere Run course form – The players who have gained the most strokes per round at TPC Deere Run.
- Zach Johnson
- Ryan Moore
- Scott Brown
- Russell Henley
- Adam Schenk
- Dylan Fritelli
- Patton Kizzire
- Emiliano Grillo
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout
- Seamus Power
- _
Proximity: 125-150 and 150-175 — Approach shots from this range make up 17% of all approach shots on tour, but they make up 20% at Deere Run.. It’s basically the only range where shots are hit at a greater clip than tour average. Here are the players who excel at this range. Together 125-175 approaches make up most of the 2nd shots not including the Par 5s.
- Russell Henley
- Vincent Norman
- Doug Ghim
- Satoshi Kodaira
- Ryan Moore
- Ben Martin
- Alex Smalley
- Michael Kim
- Akshay Bhatia
- Greyson Sigg
- _
Recent Form — We obviously want to roster golfers who are playing well at the moment. Recent form takes into account the total strokes gained over the last few tournaments.
- Denny McCarthy
- Doug Ghim
- Russell Henley
- Eric Cole
- Mark Hubbard
- Adam Schenk
- CT Pan
- Chez Reavie
- Nick Taylor
- Ben An
- _
Par 5 Scoring — The top finishers at this tournament have been really good at scoring on the Par 5s. There are three Par 5s players will need to take advantage of at the Par 71 Deere Run. Some will go for the green in two, some will hit to their number. Either way, here are the players who score on Par 5s.
- Davis Thompson
- Dylan Wu
- Doug Ghim
- KH Lee
- Richie Werenski
- Will Gordon
- Akshay Bhatia
- Kevin Roy
- Ludvig Aberg
- Denny McCarthy
- _
Fast Bentgrass Putting — Putting is always important. At the John Deere Classic the scores are going to be low so making a few more long putts than usual is going to be very important. The greens are bentgrass, so let’s see who have been the best bentgrass putters recently.
- Denny McCarthy
- Brian Gay
- Sam Ryder
- Chez Reavie
- Taylor Montgomery
- Ben Taylor
- Nick Taylor
- Peter Malnati
- Taylor Moore
- Eric Cole
- _
Peaking and Fading
One of the flaws that I often come across in modeling is focusing on a fixed range of time or rounds and taking a wider view to determine if a player is peaking or fading leading up to an event. For instance, a player’s high rating in a model that only focuses on the last 50 rounds could be a result of playing well four months ago. In this section I will lay out the players who have improved or faded statistically over the course of their last 50 rounds.
Peaking
- Doug Ghim
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout
- Ryan Palmer
- Ben An
- Denny McCarthy
- _
Fading
- Cam Young
- Ryan Moore
- David Lipsky
- Chris Kirk
- Lanto Griffin
- _
Statistical Top 50 Rankings
| 1. Emiliano Grillo | Grillo is trending in the right direction with his recent win. He rates out first in the short term course fit, eighth in course history, and 19th in the putting angle. He’s also top 20 in birdies on easy courses. |
| 2. Russell Henley | This seems like very much a Henley course and it has proven to be in the past as he rates out fourth in course form. He’s also fifth or better in approach, good drives, 400-450 Par 4s, and the proximities |
| 3. Eric Cole | Eric Cole is one of my favorite picks this week. I have him as an outright bet and think he’s going to contend. He rates out well on 400-450 yard par 4s, Par 5 scoring, recent form, putting, and birdies on easy courses. The only blemish is his past finishes at Deere Run, but I’m wiling to ignore those five the fact he’s never really been playing this well. |
| 4. Dylan Wu | I bet Dylan Wu last week and thought I was on to something. He played exceptionally Thursday-Saturday and faded a bit on Sunday. Nonetheless he rates out well for Deere Run. He’s 8th in long term form with a top 20 ranking in birdies or better on easy courses. I have bet Dylan Wu to win this week as well. |
| 5. Alex Smalley | Another bet I have placed is Alex Smalley to win. It’s not always the case that you can get almost a full betting card at the top of the rankings, but some decent numbers are floating around. Smalley needs to putt well and he will have a chance to win this event. He’s been ball-striking tremendously well. He’s 6th in birdies and 12th in form, too. |
| 6. Nick Taylor | |
| 7. Christiaan Bezuidenhout | |
| 8. Chez Reavie | |
| 9. Adam Hadwin | |
| 10. Ben An | |
| 11. Denny McCarthy | Denny is first in form and first in putting. That’s a good combo. He does rate out near the bottom in the field in making birdies on easy courses which is troublesome. The number is extra short as well too. |
| 12. Mark Hubbard | A top five player in form coming in thanks to two top tens in the last 5 weeks, Hubbard was a favorite play in the last two tournaments where he disappointed. There is potential for some performance lag on what people were seeing in him with a solid performance |
| 13. Cameron Young | |
| 14. Scott Piercy | |
| 15. Seamus Power | |
| 16. Nate Lashley | |
| 17. Sepp Straka | Straka rates out top eight in short and long term form and is in excellent form. I’d rather him on a more slugfest type track where you have to grind to a win, but you can’t ignore how well he fits here. |
| 18. Ryan Palmer | Palmer has been trending up. He’s in solid form and can get those birdies rolling in. I think he can finish high at Deere Run. A first round leader or DraftKings type consideration |
| 19. Brandon Wu | |
| 20. Joseph Bramlett | |
| 21. Adam Schenk | Schenk is a popular pick this week and rightfully so. The only red flag statistically is that he hasn’t kept pace in birdiefests. He did a pretty good job last week, but historically he hasn’t gained birdies on the field on easy tracks. Still a solid bet to finish high. |
| 22. Carson Young | |
| 23. Aaron Baddeley | |
| 24. Michael Kim | |
| 25. Patrick Rodgers | |
| 26. Greyson Sigg | |
| 27. Akshay Bhatia | |
| 28. Brendon Todd | |
| 29. Ben Martin | |
| 30. Chesson Hadley | |
| 31. Nick Hardy | |
| 32. CT Pan | |
| 33. Kevin Yu | |
| 34. Satoshi Kodaira | |
| 35. JT Poston | |
| 36. Vincent Norman | |
| 37. Andrew Novak | |
| 38. Patton Kizzire | |
| 39. Ryan Moore | |
| 40. Gordon Sargent | |
| 41. Doug Ghim | |
| 42. Chris Kirk | |
| 43. Will Gordon | |
| 44. Kevin Roy | |
| 45. Zac Blair | |
| 46. Keith Mitchell | |
| 47. Kevin Streelman | |
| 48. Taylor Moore | |
| 49. Chuck Hoffman | |
| 50. Stephan Jaeger |