2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic – Betting Preview

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The PGA Tour rolls on to the Motor City and the Rocket Mortgage Classic as we head down the stretch toward the final major of the season and the FedExCup Playoffs that follow.

The Detroit Golf Club is a classical, tree-lined, parkland course that has been one of the most prolific birdie-making courses on the Tour. Established in 1899, the club has a long history with the North Course (1916) being the oldest annual course in the Tour rotation. This year’s tournament is the fifth edition of this event with past champions including Nate Lashley, Bryson DeChambeau, Cameron Davis, and last year’s winner, Tony Finau.

While longer hitters (DeChambeau, Davis and Finau) have flourished here due to the lack of hazards off the tee, all playing styles have had success with the likes of Lashley J.J. Spaun, Troy Merritt, and Chris Kirk finishing high on past leaderboards. Skilled putters that are strong with their wedges and who are proven par-5 scorers are the best players to target on this course.

The Field

The field for this year’s Rocket Mortgage Classic is the strongest in its history. Part of the reason definitely has to do with the tournament being moved up an entire month to a more beneficial position in the schedule. Another reason is the need for certain players to increase their FedExCup point total in the hopes of guaranteeing their spot in the top 70 of the standings.

Overall, 14 of the top 40 and 37 of the top 100 players in the OWGR will be in attendance including Max Homa, defending champion Tony Finau, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Sungjae Im, Tom Kim, Hideki Matsuyama, Travelers Championship winner Keegan Bradley, and perhaps the hottest player on Tour without a recent win, Rickie Fowler. This will be the first trip to Detroit for both Thomas and Morikawa. Young phenoms, Sam Bennett and Gordon Sargent are also in the field thanks to a sponsor exemption.

2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic – Betting Narratives and Strategies

Unique Model Weights

  • SG: Easy Scoring Courses
  • SG: Weak Fields
  • SG: Driver Heavy Courses

In low-scoring birdie-fests such as will occur at Detroit Golf Club this week, past history at this event tells us that the recipe for success is quite simple. Because the course does not really penalize poor shots, and players are free to bomb away with driver and attack flags on approach, there is not much separation between great and below-average tee-to-green play. This, in essence, boils the tournament down to a putting contest.

That being said, driving distance presents a huge edge off the tee. The top of last year’s leaderboard was a veritable group of bombers off the tee including Tony Finau, Taylor Pendrith, Patrick Cantlay and Cameron Young. It’s definitely an angle of attack to select bombers this week.

With golfers unable to separate themselves that much off the tee due to the lack of any penalty for wayward drives, Detroit Golf Club is a definite second-shot course. Over 46% of approach shots come from under 150 yards, which is one of the highest wedge/short-iron rates on Tour.

With so many scoring holes here combined with a Greens in Regulation (GIR) rate from the fairway at well over 80%, proximity to the hole on these Donald Ross greens will also be key this week. With the majority of approach shots coming from the short iron or wedge range, players that are strongest in that area will have a sizeable advantage.

In such an easy scoring environment, more golfers will be able to contend on the leaderboard. Combine this with the fact that none of the upper-tier golfers stand out above the others, and the reasoning for selecting numerous mid-tier/longshots on the betting board becomes clear. Whether it’s Ludvig Aberg (+6600) or Carson Young (+18000), there is a wide range of players who have the all-important combination this week of gaining on approach along with the ability to make putts in bunches.

Speaking of the stars at the top of the board, one of the narratives is that each of these players have struggled to win tournaments. Whether it’s Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Rickie Fowler or Sungjae Im, this week presents each with a chance to break out of their “outright win” slump

Speaking of putting, these birdie-fest type of events allow almost any player that gets hot with the flat stick to have a chance to contend. Putting on these greens is not easy. While these Donald Ross surfaces have lost some of their natural movement over the decades, many still feature back-to-front sloping which is typical of his designs. Over the past four years, they have been rated as the 11th most difficult greens on which to gain strokes putting. And yet, close to 40% of all strokes gained on this course come with the flat stick. That is well above the typical average of 35%. The undulated areas around some of the pin placements make putting even tougher from inside five feet averaging as the 6th toughest.

My overall betting strategy is to embrace the volatility of this event and to select a wide range of mid-tier and longshot options. For full transparency, I will be choosing one outright in the upper range, because with so many favorites winning almost every week on Tour, it makes sense. to have at least one. As of Tuesday night, I don’t know who that is yet. My initial choice is Max Homa. I also think Rickie Fowler is very live to win here. Make sure to check the Discord for any additions that will come on Wednesday.

Most Important Stats For Success at Detroit Golf Club

*In order of importance

  • Birdie or Better %
  • SG: Approach
  • SG: Putting
  • Good Drive %
  • Par 5 Scoring
  • Driving Distance
  • SG: Easy Scoring Courses
  • Proximity: 50-125 yds
  • Opportunities Gained
  • Par 4 Scoring: 400-450

Weather Forecast – Detroit, Michigan

Rocket Mortgage Classic – Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.

Outright Betting Selections

*Lines accurate at the time of publication.

Ludvig Aberg +6600 (currently +4100)

Aberg pounds the ball off the tee and does it with accuracy as he has gained 10.4 strokes the last two events which resulted in consecutive top-25 finishes. He has also gained on approach in three of his four Tour events this year. He is a rising star who should benefit from the weaker field in Detroit this week.

(0.36u) BetMGM

Chris Kirk +6000 (currently +5500)

(0.40u) FanDuel

Austin Eckroat +8000 (currently +5000)

Other than Fowler, Austin Eckroat has been the hottest player on Tour with five straight top-30 finishes including a 10th-place finish at the U.S. Open. With his past success on easier scoring courses, strong wedge play and ability to score on par 5s, Detroit Golf Club fits right up his alley.

(0.30u) FanDuel

Hideki Matsuyama +6600 (currently +4500)

(0.36u) PointsBet

Other Outright Bets

  • Sahith Theegala +9000 (0.26u) – FanDuel (currently +7000)
  • Shane Lowry +10000 (0.24u) – PointsBet (currently +6600)
  • Brian Harman +12500 (0.19u) – BetRivers (currently +8000)

Finishing Position Picks

Top 20 – all DraftKings

  • Viktor Hovland +105 (1u)
  • Tony Finau +150 (1u)
  • Matt Fitzpatrick +165 (1u)

Top 30 – all FanDuel

  • Russell Henley +100 (1u)
  • Hideki Matsuyama +125 (1u)
  • Tom Kim +155 (1u)

Top 40

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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images