My approach to golf betting and daily fantasy is deeply rooted in statistical modeling. It’s not the only way to go about handicapping a golf tournament, but I think it’s the best way. It helps me eliminate biases and identify golfers purely based on whether they are in good form and if their game syncs up with the course they are about to play.
In this article, I will put together a weighted statistical model specific to the course and tournament. The statistics are chosen and weighted based on historical data from previous tournaments. In addition to course specific data, I will also look at recent form and any other potential relevant angle. The model accounts for the last 50 measured rounds, with the more recent rounds receiving increasingly more weight.
The Detroit Golf Club is a tree-lined course with few hazards like we saw last week at River Highlands. Players finishing at the top of the leaderboard have gained a ton of strokes putting, specifically from 5-10 feet. The greens in regulation percentage is high here, so we want birdie makers. It’s not sufficient enough to two-putt for par as the winning score will push 20-under. You can attack the course in different ways. Bryson smashed his way to the title with long drives and wedges while others have played to their number. The rough is usually up, so good drives gained will be important as well. Given the fact there are four par 5s and multiple short par 4s, I put a lot of emphasis on wedge play which has proven to be critical in Detroit.
This Week’s Stats
SG: Approach — Approach shots are the bread and butter of every statistical model. Though putting oddly ranks higher among the top finishers at this tournament, approach is still incredibly important as always
- Mark Hubbard
- Rickie Fowler
- Chez Reavie
- Collin Morikawa
- David Lipsky
- Tom Hoge
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Justin Thomas
- Tom Kim
- Nate Lashley
- _
Birdies or Better Gained — We usually use opportunities gained in this spot, however since this is a course where you have to sink putts and make lots of birdies to climb the leaderboard, I am replacing opportunities gained with birdies or better gained. It’s similar to opps gained, but accounts for making the putt as well.
- Rickie Fowler
- Dylan Wu
- Harry Higgs
- Keegan Bradley
- Ben An
- Nick Hardy
- Patrick Rodgers
- Akshay Bhatia
- Tony Finau
- Tyler Duncan
- _
Good Drives — You can bomb and gouge this course given it’s set up, or you can play it from further back if you’re accurate enough with your longer irons. Strokes gained off the tee really was a muted statistic over the last three years at Detroit Golf Club. I am using good drives gained because it measures fairways hit plus greens hit from the rough.
- Dylan Wu
- Matthew NeSmith
- Aaron Rai
- Collin Morikawa
- Ryan Armour
- Nate Lashley
- Doug Ghim
- Mark Hubbard
- Hayden Buckley
- Martin Laird
- _
Recent Form — We obviously want to roster golfers who are playing well at the moment. Recent form takes into account the total strokes gained over the last few tournaments.
- Rickie Fowler
- Doug Ghim
- Mark Hubbard
- Austin Eckroat
- Adam Schenk
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Aaron Rai
- Keegan Bradley
- Chez Reavie
- Collin Morikawa
- _
SG: Par 5 Scoring — Four par 5s are going to be key all week to achieve a score low enough to win this event. Any time a tournament has a chance to get to 20-under, it’s crucial to be able to take advantage of the Par 5s
- Harry Higgs
- Rickie Fowler
- Cameron Davis
- Dylan Wu
- Collin Morikawa
- Justin Thomas
- Carson Young
- Beau Hossler
- Keegan Bradley
- Matt Wallace
- _
SG Par 4: 450-500 — This range is not the most common among the holes at Detroit Golf Club, but the holes from 450-500 are the most difficult. So while we want guys who can throw wedges close on the short par 4 holes and have eagle chances on the Par 5 holes, you also have to not give strokes back on the 450-500 yard holes.
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Ben An
- Sungjae Im
- Beau Hossler
- Lee Hodges
- Austin Eckroat
- Sam Stevens
- Patrick Rodgers
- Kevin Roy
- Joseph Bramlett
- _
Proximity: Wedges — Given the short par 4s and the four par 5s, players will have to pull their wedges often. Each wedge range will be tested above tour average this week. This is a combination of three yardage buckets from 75-150.
- Collin Morikawa
- Rickie Fowler
- Max Homa
- Tom Hoge
- Russell Knox
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout
- Davis Riley
- Chris Kirk
- Ben Griffin
- _
SG: Putting (surface and distance combo) — Putting is crucial at the Detroit Golf Club because greens in regulation are a little bit easier to come by. What we’ve seen in it’s short history is the top of the leaderboard rank head and shoulders above the field in putting, especially 5-10 footers.
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout
- Alex Noren
- Harris English
- Rickie Fowler
- Justin Lower
- Beau Hossler
- Brendon Todd
- Austin Cook
- Tony Finau
- Sam Ryder
- _
Detroit Golf Club Course History — The players who’ve gained strokes against the field at the highest rate at Detroit Golf Club
- Tony Finau
- Troy Merritt
- JJ Spaun
- Taylor Pendrith
- Chris Kirk
- Matt Wallace
- Nate Lashley
- Taylor Moore
- Cam Davis
- Tom Kim
- _
Strokes Gained: Easy Courses — Here is a look at players who gain the most strokes on the field when the scoring is easy relative to par.
- Justin Thomas
- Tony Finau
- Tom Kim
- Tom Hoge
- Sungjae Im
- JJ Spaun
- Taylor Moore
- Thomas Detry
- Alex Smalley
- Mark Hubbard
- _
Peaking and Fading
One of the flaws that I often come across in modeling is focusing on a fixed range of time or rounds and taking a wider view to determine if a player is peaking or fading leading up to an event. For instance, a player’s high rating in a model that only focuses on the last 50 rounds could be a result of playing well four months ago. In this section I will lay out the players who have improved or faded statistically over the course of their last 50 rounds.
Peaking
- Austin Eckroat
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout
- Ben An
- Kevin Roy
- Adam Schenk
- _
Fading
- Chris Kirk
- Davis Riley
- Adam Hadwin
- Tom Hoge
- Joseph Bramlett
- _