After watching the world’s best battle it out at Oak Hill for the PGA Championship, a strong field heads down to Fort Worth, Texas, for this week’s Charles Schwab Challenge. Though not a designated event, the field is still relatively strong, especially considering it’s the week after a major.
The PGA Tour has been coming to the legendary Colonial Country Club since 1946, and it’s held the test of time despite all the changes in the game. We know what we’re getting this week. Precision is the name of the game, both off the tee and into these small bentgrass greens. Birdies are hard to come by, and historically bombers have been forced to go less-than-driver more than most other tracks due to the many forced layups, doglegs, thick Bermuda rough, and tight tree-lined fairways. We’ve seen an increase in driver usage off the tee over the past few years, a trend that will likely continue this week for some of the 120 golfers in the field. Not everyone has the apex and carry distance required to drive it over the trees to cut off the many doglegs at Colonial, but those who can likely continue to try. Regardless, as is often the case, approach play is paramount this week.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here’s an important tidbit about Colonial:
Colonial is one of the toughest courses to make birdies on Tour. It has stood the test of time, and because it cannot be overpowered, it continues to challenge golfers year after year. It has the third-smallest average landing zones on Tour when combining fairway width (28 yards) and green size (5,000 square feet).
Over the last five years, it has averaged 0.24 strokes over par, which makes it the 10th toughest course on Tour. Thanks to only two par-5s, it has one of the lowest eagle rates on Tour, along with the third-highest rate of pars. With the lack of many “birdie” holes, boring golf tends to win here. Also, because distance off the tee is a non-factor here, any type of skill set has the opportunity to win.
Because of the heavy volume of trees lining the fairways, along with the unpredictable 3″ Bermuda rough, it becomes a positional-based course where most players will club down off the tee and take less than driver. Distance off the tee is seven yards lower here than the average course. Those who find the rough or try to cut across the doglegs and fail will have to deal with plenty of tree-blocked approach shots. Fairway-finders playing “target golf” rule the day here at Colonial.
My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, so I’ll share my opinion on the best way to bet on each golfer in my player pool at this week’s event. When pricing out finishing position bets (T5, T10, T20s, etc.), I’ll often lean towards BetMGM even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. So know the rules of the books that you’re betting on!
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets from myself or other contributors. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
*Betting lines are accurate when posted in Discord.
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Noonan’s Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Targets
Russell Henley
Russell Henley took his red-hot form to Oak Hill last week, and while he didn’t make the cut, his tee-to-green play remained solid. He gained nearly 1.5 strokes per round on approach, but in less shocking news, he couldn’t make a putt and missed the cut by a stroke.
Henley had four straight T19 or better finishes leading up to the PGA Championship, and he’s built for what’s required to win at Colonial. He ranks first in the field in fairways gained over the past 50 rounds and third in Good Drive%, which takes into account his tee shot and approach. Throughout his career, he’s played well at courses like this, but Colonial has only been on his schedule once, which is surprising.
Cam Davis
We didn’t find out that Cam Davis had been battling an illness until he told us at The PLAYERS, but he’s been a completely different golfer after missing five straight cuts to start the year. Davis’s T6 at Sawgrass was his first of four T17 or better finishes over his past six starts, three of which were T7 or better, including a T4 at last week’s PGA Championship.
Davis is not someone who profiles well for a less-than-driver course, but he finished T7 here last season, and a lot of his recent success has come on shorter, station-to-station layouts like Austin Country Club and Harbour Town. He’s also performed well on Bentgrass greens in his career.
Emiliano Grillo
If Russell Henley is a poor man’s Collin Morikawa, then Emiliano Grillo is a poor man’s Russell Henley. Grillo is excellent with his irons, ranking second in this field in SG: APP from 150-200 in 2023, but the rest of his game can come and go. He’s in the middle of a solid run, and throughout his career, he’s put together streaks similar to the one he’s on now.
Grillo has gained strokes putting in five of his past six measured rounds, and if he can do that again this week, he’ll be in contention. He’s played well at Colonial in past years, including a solo third back in 2018 and a T8 in 2021. I think his outright number is too long at 100/1, and his T40 price is one of the best bets on the board.
Akshay Bhatia
Akshay Bhatia is going to win golf tournaments, and I’m going to continue to back him at spots like this where approach play is paramount. The 21-year-old Southpaw has a wide range of outcomes right now, but his baseline approach skill set is outstanding. He’s sixth in this field in SG: APP over the past 24 rounds and ninth in SG: Total. He’s also 14th in Good Drive% over the past 36 rounds, so if he can piece together a few solid days on the greens, he’ll contend.
FanDuel Finishing Position Parlay
Si Woo Kim and Justin Rose – T40 (+159)
This is a relatively new entry to the space, thanks to our friends at FanDuel. I played a number of these last season with a 9.85% ROI, so I’ll continue it this season. If it’s not for you, feel free to skip it.
Unlike most other books I’m familiar with, FanDuel allows you to parlay finishing position bets. Now, the very premise of the bet is flawed because the expected value is negative since players are competing for the same finishing positions. If the bet is two T40s like this one, when one leg of your parlay finishes above the threshold, there’s now one less spot available in that range for the other leg(s) to also come in. I know the math is terrible. Spare me. But let’s be honest. Some bets are just fun, and these are fun for me.
These two were the last cuts from my outright betting shortlist, and I wanted to note them here. I believe this course is a great fit for their games, and the recent form is trending upward for both. Love this at plus-money.
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