2023 PGA Championship – DraftKings Picks

*In case you missed it, here are my complete thoughts, strategies, and favorite plays on every pricing tier for the DraftKings slate.

2023 PGA Championship – Narratives and Important Metrics

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Unique Model Weights

SG: Strong Fields
SG: Long Courses
SG: Difficult Scoring Conditions
SG: Driver Heavy Course
SG: Northeast Courses

There are so many narratives at this week’s second major of the year but the overarching theme seems to be carnage that might take place thanks to how tough Oak Hill might play. While going through practice rounds early in the week, players are predicting a winning score ranging from 4 to 8-under par. Literally, every golfer has mentioned the fact that if you don’t keep your drive in the fairway, the rough and bunkers are so penal that you might be lucky to save bogey. For this reason, Total Driving (which measures distance and accuracy off the tee) is the most important stat in my model this week.

While distance seems to trump accuracy off the tee, reports are that fairways are much firmer than expected and drives in the fairway are actually getting some solid rollout. If this is the case, accuracy on both drives and on approach to the green becomes the most important factor for success. Distance will always be a positive but it appears that, even on such a long course, shorter-hitting fairway-finders can still have success provided they have a level of accuracy from 200+ yards and are stellar around the greens.

With only two par 5s (each being over 600 yards), along with the allegedly “driveable” 14th hole not really being driveable, golfers will be hard-pressed to find any quality scoring chances. Even with the removal of hundreds of trees opening up the course to many more playable options, there simply does not appear to be much let-up at Oak Hill. Tony Finau remarked that he couldn’t count a single birdie hole on the entire course! One of my first priorities will be targeting players who have had past success in other strong field events that had difficult scoring conditions.

Short game in the form of chipping around the green and being able to scramble from bunkers will be huge this week. In the words of Oak Hill’s course renovator, Andrew Green, the bunkers are “bold and aggressive”. They have intimidating steep faces and may force players to hit sideways just to get out of jail. Green’s goal was to transform them into true hazards which can extract up to a full shot penalty depending on where the ball settles. On certain courses with tough lies around the green, players will often bail out into bunkers. That will not be a viable option this week and will place even more of a premium on ball-striking.

With such narrow fairways, the fairway accuracy rate could actually dip below 50%. Everyone will have to play from the rough on numerous occasions. With few water hazards or penalty areas, the lush rough has always been one of the primary defenses of the East Course. According to course Superintendent, Jeff Corcoran, “If you miss the fairway you’re gonna be in trouble. And once the competitive rounds start Thursday, the rough, per the PGA of America mandate, will not be cut the rest of the week. So by Sunday, it could be extremely gnarly.”

It’s not the length of the rough as much as it is the thickness that poses such a challenge. Early reports have players doubting that anything longer than an 8-iron will allow them to reach the green when hitting from the rough. They are even experimenting with 9-woods to allow for a higher chance of getting the ball airborne.

With such dense rough along with the 4th smallest greens surrounded by penal bunkers, gaining strokes on approach will be a task this week. The expanded green surfaces allow for more pin locations near the edges of holes. Add in the abundance of long par 4s and numerous elevated greens that will require flighted approach shots and it’s easy to see why Oak Hill demands elite ball-striking. SG: Approach is once again the most heavily weighted metric of my weekly model.

Finally, with such tough scoring, combined with the cooler temperatures and winds of at least 15 mph on three of the days, I’m strongly betting on high finishes for players who have thrived in the past in such conditions. While not as challenging, Wentworth Club in England, host of the BMW PGA Championship, reminds of Oak Hill a great deal. European golfers like Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick, Shane Lowry and Matt Wallace have played that course a bunch and really stand out as players who could have high finishes this week.

Most Important Stats For Success at the PGA Championship

*In order of importance

SG: APP
Total Driving
Proximity 175+
Scrambling
SG: Long/Difficult Courses
Bogey Avoidance
SG: Majors/Strong Field Events
Sand Saves
Par 4 Scoring (450-500 yds)
SG: Putting (Bentgrass)

Weather Forecast – Rochester, New York

PGA Championship – DraftKings Picks

Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options. In essence, the players you see below make up the majority of my player pool for this event.