The second major of the year has arrived with the prodigious East Course at Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, New York hosting the 2023 PGA Championship. Completed by Donald Ross in 1926, Oak Hill has a rich history having hosted six previous majors along with the 1995 Ryder Cup. Throughout the decades, the course has been a model of parkland golf in America having hosted multiple championships. It has a sterling reputation as being one of the most equitable yet challenging tests of golf in America. After shooting 4-over par and finishing tied for 40th place at the 2013 PGA Championship here, Tiger Woods called Oak Hill “the toughest, fairest course I’ve ever played.”
The course underwent a near-complete remodel in 2019 by rising architect, Andrew Green in an effort to revive the vintage Ross design. While the overall routing remains the same, the course looks and plays completely different than in years past. “There’s a certain rugged kind of boldness to what we’ve done that’s meant to provide a little more intimidation and to place some demanding circumstances on the world’s best players,” Green said.
Featuring naturally scenic holes, elevation changes, narrow fairways, penal rough, and small raised greens surrounded by hazardous bunkers, it will play as a lengthy par 70 measuring 7,394 yards. PGA Championship layouts have usually been “U.S. Open-lite” type courses, but Oak Hill might be as close to a U.S. Open challenge as we’ve seen in years. Good shots will be rewarded. Poor shots punished.
Golfers will need to be strong with every club in their bag. On such a long course with dense rough, combined with the cooler May conditions of the upper northeast, both distance and accuracy off the tee will be crucial. Every golfer in the field will be forced to scramble for par or bogey from difficult positions throughout the week. With birdie opportunities rare, elite ball-strikers should rise to the top.
The Field
It is seemingly said for every major, but the PGA Championship really does have the strongest field, perhaps of all time. 102 of the top 103 players in the world rankings are in attendance at Oak Hill. Out for the season after back surgery, Will Zalatoris is the only exception. The 156-player field also includes 18 players from the rival LIV Golf League including major event stalwarts in Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, and Cameron Smith.
The game’s two biggest heavyweights, Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler, headline the field as co-favorites once again. Rahm enters atop both the world rankings and the FedExCup standings after four wins this year, including the Masters and two other designated events, the Sentry Tournament of Champions and the Genesis Invitational. Second to Rahm, in both the world rankings and FedExCup standings, Scheffler has won two designated events at THE PLAYERS Championship and the WM Phoenix Open.
There are plenty of other big names in the second-tier of favorites that are ready to contend including two-time PGA Championship winner and Oak Hill member, Rory McIlroy, defending PGA champion, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Koepka, Johnson, and Tony Finau. Other past PGA champions in the field this week include Collin Morikawa, Jason Day, Phil Mickelson, Keegan Bradley, and Jimmy Walker.
2023 PGA Championship – Betting Narratives and Strategies
Unique Model Weights
- SG: Strong Fields
- SG: Long Courses
- SG: Difficult Scoring Conditions
- SG: Driver Heavy Course
- SG: Northeast Courses
There are so many narratives at this week’s second major of the year but the overarching theme seems to be carnage that might take place thanks to how tough Oak Hill might play. While going through practice rounds early in the week, players are predicting a winning score ranging from 4 to 8-under par. Literally, every golfer has mentioned the fact that if you don’t keep your drive in the fairway, the rough and bunkers are so penal that you might be lucky to save bogey. For this reason, Total Driving (which measures distance and accuracy off the tee) is the most important stat in my model this week.
While distance seems to trump accuracy off the tee, reports are that fairways are much firmer than expected and drives in the fairway are actually getting some solid rollout. If this is the case, accuracy on both drives and on approach to the green becomes the most important factor for success. Distance will always be a positive but it appears that, even on such a long course, shorter-hitting fairway-finders can still have success provided they have a level of accuracy from 200+ yards and are stellar around the greens.
With only two par 5s (each being over 600 yards), along with the allegedly “driveable” 14th hole not really being driveable, golfers will be hard-pressed to find any quality scoring chances. Even with the removal of hundreds of trees opening up the course to many more playable options, there simply does not appear to be much let-up at Oak Hill. Tony Finau remarked that he couldn’t count a single birdie hole on the entire course! One of my first priorities will be targeting players who have had past success in other strong field events that had difficult scoring conditions.
Short game in the form of chipping around the green and being able to scramble from bunkers will be huge this week. In the words of Oak Hill’s course renovator, Andrew Green, the bunkers are “bold and aggressive”. They have intimidating steep faces and may force players to hit sideways just to get out of jail. Green’s goal was to transform them into true hazards which can extract up to a full shot penalty depending on where the ball settles. On certain courses with tough lies around the green, players will often bail out into bunkers. That will not be a viable option this week and will place even more of a premium on ball-striking.
With such narrow fairways, the fairway accuracy rate could actually dip below 50%. Everyone will have to play from the rough on numerous occasions. With few water hazards or penalty areas, the lush rough has always been one of the primary defenses of the East Course. According to course Superintendent, Jeff Corcoran, “If you miss the fairway you’re gonna be in trouble. And once the competitive rounds start Thursday, the rough, per the PGA of America mandate, will not be cut the rest of the week. So by Sunday, it could be extremely gnarly.”
It’s not the length of the rough as much as it is the thickness that poses such a challenge. Early reports have players doubting that anything longer than an 8-iron will allow them to reach the green when hitting from the rough. They are even experimenting with 9-woods to allow for a higher chance of getting the ball airborne.
With such dense rough along with the 4th smallest greens surrounded by penal bunkers, gaining strokes on approach will be a task this week. The expanded green surfaces allow for more pin locations near the edges of holes. Add in the abundance of long par 4s and numerous elevated greens that will require flighted approach shots and it’s easy to see why Oak Hill demands elite ball-striking. SG: Approach is once again the most heavily weighted metric of my weekly model.
Finally, with such tough scoring, combined with the cooler temperatures and winds of at least 15 mph on three of the days, I’m strongly betting on high finishes for players who have thrived in the past in such conditions. While not as challenging, Wentworth Club in England, host of the BMW PGA Championship, reminds of Oak Hill a great deal. European golfers like Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick, Shane Lowry and Matt Wallace have played that course a bunch and really stand out as players who could have high finishes this week.
Most Important Stats For Success at the PGA Championship
*In order of importance
- SG: APP
- Total Driving
- Proximity 175+
- Scrambling
- SG: Long/Difficult Courses
- Bogey Avoidance
- SG: Majors/Strong Field Events
- Sand Saves
- Par 4 Scoring (450-500 yds)
- SG: Putting (Bentgrass)
Weather Forecast – Rochester, New York
The PGA Championship Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Scottie Scheffler +1000 (boosted from +700)
Coming into this major, as dominant as both Scheffler and Jon Rahm have been over the past year, I think it’s just common sense to have one on your outright card. It was a difficult internal debate with tons of analysis over every metric imaginable. But I settled on Scheffler for a few reasons. First, over the past year, (according to DataGolf’s True Strokes Gained) Scheffler has gained 2.44 strokes tee-to-green per round compared to Rahm’s 1.76. That is a sizeable edge, especially on a course where putting is de-emphasized thanks to the tough scoring conditions. Secondly, Scheffler has reached a level of consistency that might be unmatched in the modern era (minus Tiger Woods of course). He has recorded a top-12 finish in 11 consecutive events. To be fair, Rahm has a similar current streak, but Scheffler has taken his game to an entirely different level. Scheffler ranks first in my “Core 4” metric and outpaces Rahm in Total Driving and SG: Approach. As intense of a competitor as there is on Tour, Scheffler will be squarely in the mix come Sunday afternoon.
(2.4u) DraftKings
Xander Schauffele +2900 (currently +1800)
Finishing second overall in my model for the week, Schauffele has been on a tear of late with three straight top-10 finishes, all in designated events, including consecutive top-4s. He’s gained a spectacular 23.5 strokes ball-striking in those three events. The biggest draw with Schauffele is his excellence and consistency with every club in his bag. His lack of any specific weakness is a huge strength when playing a strenuous course like Oak Hill. He has four consecutive top-15 finishes at majors and leads the field in approach over the past 36 rounds.
(0.82u) FanDuel
Tony Finau +2900 (currently +2200)
Over the past few years, everyone who follows golf has known that Finau has the potential to be one of the best players in the world, including winning multiple majors. It appears that he is finally seeing the results catch up with his talent. Albeit in lesser events, with four wins in the last 10 months, Finau will now continue the journey to get the major monkey off his back. Having won in Mexico three weeks ago, and having not lost strokes in an event since March of 2022, his form leading into this week is stellar. Similar to Schauffele, he has the all-around game, length off the tee, and touch around the greens to battle Oak Hill. He is one of the elite birdie-makers in the game. And in a week where it might only take a handful of birdies to win, both his high ceiling and floor make him a great selection this week.
(0.68u) DraftKings
Tyrrell Hatton +6600 (currently +4600)
When I hear “extremely tough course, with long par 4s in chilly and windy conditions” I immediately think of someone like Hatton. Not only is he a course fit this week, but he has been playing perhaps the best golf of his career in the States with five top-6 finishes in the last three months. Hatton’s ball-striking and consistency off the tee are ranked in the top-10 in this field. His short-game and ability to scramble have also rebounded nicely over the last three events where he has gained over 11 strokes.
(0.68u) PointsBet
Talor Gooch +12000
Gooch should be plenty motivated to make a run for the top of the leaderboard this week in order to secure his spot into next month’s U.S. Open after feeling snubbed when his exemption was seemingly removed. Having just won consecutive LIV events last month, he brings excellent form to Oak Hill where his all-around game can shine.
(0.20u) FanDuel
Finishing Position Picks
Top 10
- Scottie Scheffler -110 (1.1u)
- Jon Rahm +100 (1u)
Top 20 – all DraftKings
- Xander Schauffele -120 (1.2u)
- Patrick Cantlay +100 (1u)
- Tony Finau +105 (1u)
- Brooks Koepka +110 (1u)
- Justin Thomas +120 (1u)
- Dustin Johnson +138 (1u)
Top 30 – all FanDuel
- Matt Fitzpatrick -110 (1.1u)
- Tyrrell Hatton -105 (1.1u)
- Hideki Matsuyama +145 (1u)
- Tommy Fleetwood +145 (1u)
Top 40 – all FanDuel
- Adam Scott +110 (1u)
- Shane Lowry +135 (1u)
- Gary Woodland +140 (1u)
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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images