The season’s second major is upon us as the world’s best head to western New York and Oak Hill Country Club for the 105th PGA Championship. Oak Hill underwent a facelift in 2019 and shares very little resemblance to the version that last hosted the PGA Championship back in 2013.
Early reports show some similarities to last season’s PGA at Southern Hills and commonalities with Brookline Country Club, which hosted last season’s U.S. Open. It’s a stretching Par-70 that can play up to 7,394 from the tips. With an estimated 600 trees removed during the remodel, sightlines around Oak Hill should be quite different than in years past. These small, bentgrass greens have been reshaped, and the shaved runoffs create a difficult challenge, which should be the case in a major. The creek that runs through the course forces accuracy and plus carry distance on a handful of holes. Those who can’t manage will be forced to lay up, making this course play even longer than expected.
The rough has been described as dense, and the fairways narrow, which leads me to believe driving accuracy will be challenging for all this week. Anyone who pieces together four rounds of ‘long and straight’ is always in contention no matter the week, but with this layout and the elevation changes into these small greens give me long over straight at Oak Hill. Also, the fairway bunkers are true hazards after the redesign. Going for the green is not always a viable option depending on one’s placement in each trap. If you want to understand the architecture of Oak Hill, check out this video from the team over at The Fried Egg.
If you’re into #trendz, we have a few that I think are worth looking into this week. Of course, an all-around game where a golfer gains strokes throughout the bag supersedes all trends, but they’re noteworthy nonetheless.
- Seven of the previous 10 winners had already bagged a win that season.
- Eight of the last 10 champions finished inside the top 20 in their start before the PGA Championship.
- Seven of the previous 10 champs had appeared in five or fewer PGA Championships.
- Nine of the last 10 winners had a T20 or better at the PGA Championship on their resume their win.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here’s an important tidbit about Oak Hill:
Golfers will need to be strong with every club in their bag. On such a long course with dense rough, combined with the cooler May conditions of the upper northeast, both distance and accuracy off the tee will be crucial. Every golfer in the field will be forced to scramble for par or bogey from difficult positions throughout the week. With birdie opportunities rare, elite ball-strikers should rise to the top.
With greens only 4,500 square feet on average, there will be plenty of 20-40 yard recovery pitch shots that will test players’ short-game skills. Along with being immaculate in design, the greenside bunkers are so penal and steep with the same thick rough on their faces that balls can even get lodged on the slope creating near-impossible recovery shots. Perfectly placed “tear-drop” mounds surrounding certain greens can also have the same effect causing difficult lies.
My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, so I’ll share my opinion on the best way to bet on each golfer in my player pool at this week’s event. When pricing out finishing position bets (T5, T10, T20s, etc.), I’ll often lean towards BetMGM even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. So know the rules of the books that you’re betting on!
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets from myself or other contributors. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
*Betting lines are accurate when posted in Discord.
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Noonan’s PGA Championship Betting Targets
Jon Rahm
Chasing Jon Rahm at the top of the board in the middle of his heater probably comes off as a square play, but I believe he’s the best golfer in the world right now, and his recent form is better than anyone else at or near his price range.
You need the full bag to win any major, and while there are plenty of golfers in this week’s field who are equipped to compete, Rahm’s baseline in all the stats that matter is simply higher than anyone else’s. He’s among the longest drivers in the field, and he ranks sixth in total driving after leading the PGA Tour in 2022. We expect most approach shots to come from the 175-225 yard range, where Rahm ranks among the field’s best, both in the short-term (24 rounds) and longer-term (50 rounds).
Dustin Johnson
Recent form heading into the PGA Championship has been a great predictor of success over the years. There’s no better recent form than winning the previous week, which Dustin Johnson can say after his victory last week at LIV Golf Tulsa. He’s been playing better of late, and I think Brooks Koepka’s performance at the Masters sparked a level of engagement in DJ that most have been questioning over the past calendar year.
He’s cleaned up on these northeast courses throughout his career, ranking first in total strokes gained in the northeast over the past four years. I jumped in early last weekend when I saw him climbing up the leaderboard, but he’s still betable if you can get a 30/1.
- To Win: +3000 DraftKings
- Top 20: +100 BetMGM
Max Homa
I can’t pass on Max Homa at 45/1. Sometimes it’s just that simple. Yes, he’s yet to put it together for a major, but he’s a better player than he was 2-3 years ago. He’s won at Quail Hollow, Torrey Pines, TPC Potomac, and Riviera. Those are long, tough golf courses and, in most instances, include strong fields.
Homa finished T8 last time out at Quail Hollow, gaining strokes across the board. He’s an excellent long-iron player and has one of the best short games in the world, which will matter this week.
Talor Gooch
Talor Gooch was triple-digits in the outright market prior to his back-to-back post-Masters wins on LIV. Gooch was an ascending player on the PGA Tour before opting for the ‘Golf but louder’ route, so it’s no surprise to see him playing well in sub-50 person events where he’s one of the ten best in every event.
He checks the short-term form box, and he’s also a solid course fit. He’s an excellent long-iron player, especially from 200+ yards.
- To Win: +8000 DraftKings
- Top 40: +145 FanDuel
Mito Pereria
Andy said it on Tuesday’s betting preview, and I laughed, but he’s right. Over the past few years, Mito Pereira has been closer to winning a major than Rory has! Of course, Andy’s never one to shy away from a chance to swing at Rory, but the fact remains true. Mito Pereria led last year’s PGA Championship after 71 holes, but an aggressive drive on the 18th hole opened the door for others, while Mito Pereria was left to wonder what could’ve been.
Pereria has since taken his talents to LIV Golf, so he’s out of sight, out of mind for most. While the field size and strength certainly impact things, I’ve been encouraged to see Mito finish inside the top-6 in three of his six LIV Golf starts. He also played well in his recent full-field events during the swing season, and he sets up well for this course. He’s long and relatively straight off the tee, and his long iron game is tremendous. Over the last two years, Pereria is one of the leaders in strokes gained approach from the rough, over 150 yards out. He’s also among the best in strokes gained approach from the fairway from over 200 yards out, key approach buckets at this stretched-out Oak Hill.
FanDuel Finishing Position Parlay
Justin Thomas and Matthew Fitzpatrick – T40 (+117)
This is a relatively new entry to the space, thanks to our friends at FanDuel. I played a number of these last season with a 9.85% ROI, so I’ll continue it this season. If it’s not for you, feel free to skip it.
Unlike most other books I’m familiar with, FanDuel allows you to parlay finishing position bets. Now, the very premise of the bet is flawed because the expected value is negative since players are competing for the same finishing positions. If the bet is two T40s like this one, when one leg of your parlay finishes above the threshold, there’s now one less spot available in that range for the other leg(s) to also come in. I know the math is terrible. Spare me. But let’s be honest. Some bets are just fun, and these are fun for me.
These two were the last cuts from my outright betting shortlist, and I wanted to note them here. I believe this course is a great fit for their games, and the recent form is trending upward for both. Love this at plus-money.
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