My approach to golf betting and daily fantasy is deeply rooted in statistical modeling. It’s not the only way to go about handicapping a golf tournament, but I think it’s the best way. It helps me eliminate biases and identify golfers purely based on whether they are in good form and if their game syncs up with the course they are about to play.
In this article, I will put together a weighted statistical model specific to the course and tournament. The statistics are chosen and weighted based on historical data from previous tournaments. In addition to course specific data, I will also look at recent form and any other potential relevant angle. The model accounts for the last 50 measured rounds, with the more recent rounds receiving increasingly more weight.
For a course like Oak Hill that hasn’t been played in a few years and has changed quite a bit since the last playing, I think it’s smart to be very brief and specific with our stats. I’ve seen a lot speculation around the internet about how the course will play, but there are only certain things we know for sure and that’s what I am going to use in the modeling. I’m going to avoid too much guess work because I wouldn’t want that to lead us down the wrong path.
This Week’s Stats
SG: Approach — Approach shots are the bread and butter of every statistical model. No matter the course, the second shot will almost always be the most important.
| Tony Finau |
| Xander Schauffele |
| Collin Morikawa |
| Scottie Scheffler |
| Wyndham Clark |
| Rickie Fowler |
| Tom Hoge |
| Max Homa |
| Jon Rahm |
| Brendan Steele |
Opportunities Gained — This stat measures birdie opportunities within 15 feet from the hole plus any greens hit in under regulation (on the green with an eagle putt or better).
| Wyndham Clark |
| Tom Hoge |
| Rory McIlroy |
| Cam Young |
| Tony Finau |
| Brendan Steele |
| Scottie Scheffler |
| Corey Conners |
| Jon Rahm |
| Viktor Hovland |
Proximity from 200+ — The plurality of shots will come from distance, especially with players avoiding bunkers and high rough in favor of accuracy on certain holes.
| Jon Rahm |
| Tom Hoge |
| Gary Woodland |
| Tom Kim |
| Tony Finau |
| Patrick Cantlay |
| Harold Varner III |
| Adam Svensson |
| Chez Reavie |
| Dean Burmester |
SG: Difficult Courses/Par 70 – Oak Hill is set up to play as one of the tougher courses of the season. It boasts some extreme rough, penalizing bunkers, and abnormally long Par 3s.
| Dustin Johnson |
| Rory McIlroy |
| Hideki Matsuyama |
| Webb Simpson |
| Scottie Scheffler |
| Tony Finau |
| Shane Lowy |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick |
| Collin Morikawa |
| Aaron Wise |
Off-the-Tee Combo — You’re going to need a combination of distance, some accuracy, and the ability to know where to miss. I’ve created a metric with a combination of driving stats to come up with an off-the-tee metric specifically for Oak Hill
| Gary Woodland |
| Scottie Scheffler |
| Cameron Young |
| Rory McIlroy |
| Keith Mitchell |
| Jon Rahm |
| Patrick Cantlay |
| Sam Burns |
| Viktor Hovland |
| Adam Scott |
Recent Form — Professional golfers can play well at any given tournament, however when it’s always important to give an added boost to guys who are in a groove with their swing and have been playing well leading up to a tournament.
| Jon Rahm |
| Xander Schauffele |
| Wyndham Clark |
| Tyrrell Hatton |
| Tony Finau |
| Scottie Scheffler |
| Emiliano Grillo |
| Patrick Cantlay |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick |
| Sungjae Im |
SG: Around the Green – Obviously we are going to want players that are stellar with their irons that will be hitting the most greens. It would be naïve to think guys aren’t going to miss greens. It’s going to be important to hit greens and make putts when you have the opportunity, but it will also be crucial to save par when you don’t.
| Brendon Todd |
| Matt Kuchar |
| Ben Griffin |
| Justin Thomas |
| Jimmy Walker |
| Chris Kirk |
| Talor Gooch |
| Tommy Fleetwood |
| Sungjae Im |
| Scottie Scheffler |
Bentgrass Putting – These are the best putters on the specific surface type we’ll see at Oak Hill.
| Patrick Cantlay |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout |
| Brendon Todd |
| Martin Kaymer |
| Maverick McNealy |
| Keegan Bradley |
| Andrew Putnam |
| Thorbjorn Olesen |
| Denny McCarthy |
| Tony Finau |
Peaking and Fading – One of the flaws that I often come across in modeling is focusing on a fixed range of time or rounds and taking a wider view to determining if a player is peaking or fading leading up to an event. For instance, a player’s high rating in a model that only focuses on the last 50 rounds could be a result of playing well four months ago. In this section, I will lay out the players who have improved or faded statistically over the course of their last 50 rounds.
Peaking
| Hideki Matsuyama |
| Gary Woodland |
| Hayden Buckley |
| Adam Scott |
| Justin Thomas |
Fading
| Tom Hoge |
| Brendon Steele |
| Davis Riley |
| Cameron Young |
| Collin Morikawa |
Stat Model Top 50 Rankings
| 1. Tony Finau | Finau is playing out of his mind currently. It helps that he’s excellent with his long irons, long off the tee, a very good bentgrass putter, and rates out well on tough Par 70s |
| 2. Jon Rahm | Rahm is top ten in approach, opportunities gained, recent form, and 200+ proximity. Surprisingly he only rates out 24th on difficult Par 70 courses. |
| 3. Patrick Cantlay | Cantlay is inside the top ten in the driving metric, 200+ proximity, recent form, and bentgrass putting. |
| 4. Scottie Scheffler | Scheffler rates out tenth or better in the driving metric, approach, opportunities gained, recent form, and around the green. He has the complete game for a difficult course like Oak Hill |
| 5. Xander Schauffele | Second in approach, third in recent form, and pretty much has no red flag in his game on a course where you need every skill to be solid. |
| 6. Rory McIlroy | Rory is trending in the wrong direction, but still checks in at number sixth thanks to his driving metric and his opportunities gained. He’s also second on difficult Par 70s and first in long term form. |
| 7. Tyrell Hatton | Hatton is fourth in recent form and 14th in both long term and short term course stats. He ranks 16th in approach, 8th off the tee, and is 19th in opportunities gained as well. |
| 8. Jordan Spieth | Spieth coming in with a banged up wrist, but the stat model doesn’t know that ranking him 9th due to solid rankings across the board. Nothing pops specifically for Spieth, but much like Xander, he doesn’t have a a glaring weakness |
| 9. Hideki Matsuyama | Hideki rates out third in difficult Par 70s and sixth in short term key stats. He showed enough last week that I think we can put the injury concern behind him and back him at a huge number |
| 10. Justin Rose | Justin Rose rates out 13th in short term form, he’s a player that is trending up as his baseline rating is in the 30s over the last 50 rounds. He’s an excellent bentgrass putter and has a solid history at tough PGA Championship courses. |
| 11. Dustin Johnson | |
| 12. Wyndham Clark | |
| 13. Justin Thomas | |
| 14. Sungjae Im | |
| 15. Max Homa | |
| 16. Keegan Bradley | |
| 17. Jason Day | |
| 18. Viktor Hovland | |
| 19. Cameron Smith | |
| 20. Adam Scott | |
| 21. Gary Woodland | |
| 22. Tommy Fleetwood | |
| 23. Mito Pereira | |
| 24. Rickie Fowler | |
| 25. Denny McCarthy | |
| 26. Sam Burns | |
| 27. Brendan Steele | |
| 28. Cameron Young | |
| 29. Collin Morikawa | |
| 30. Joaquin Niemann | |
| 31. Shane Lowry | |
| 32. Tom Kim | |
| 33. Corey Conners | |
| 34. Matthew Fitzpatrick | |
| 35. Emiliano Grillo | |
| 36. Cameron Davis | |
| 37. Talor Gooch | |
| 38. Chris Kirk | |
| 39. Russell Henley | |
| 40. Taylor Moore | |
| 41. Anirban Lahiri | |
| 42. Mark Hubbard | |
| 43. Patrick Rodgers | |
| 44. Adria Arnaus | |
| 45. Patrick Rodgers | |
| 46. Si Woo Kim | |
| 47. Nick Taylor | |
| 48. Christiaan Bezeidenhout | |
| 49. Andrew Putnam | |
| 50. Dean Burmester |