After TPC Potomac filled in for the 2022 edition due to the fall’s Presidents Cup, the Wells Fargo Championship returns to Quail Hollow this week. We’re also back to a designated event after a two-week hiatus, so this week’s field is top-heavy, though noticeably less top-heavy than prior designated events.
We’re down to just 21 of the OWGR’s top 30, with Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler, among others taking the week off. The odds board looks a bit different without the world’s top two players on it, but I anticipate that this week will finish as nearly all the other designated events have, and that’s with a small group of top-tier players battling it out on Sunday. These designated events have changed the golf betting landscape, and in my opinion, it’s wise to take a shot or two near the top of the board.
Any course history pre-2017 is meaningless because the redesign after the 2016 event completely altered the course, especially the front 9. It’ll play 7,538 yards as a Par 71, which is one of the longest Par 71s played on the PGA Tour over the past decade. Elite tee-to-green play is required here, and the course favors distance off the tee, and between the long par-4s and lengthy par-3s, 56% of approach shots come from 175 yards and beyond. I’m also looking at corollary courses like Torrey Pines, Riviera, and Copperhead because previous leaderboards have a decent amount of overlap with Quail Hollow.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here’s an important tidbit about Quail Hollow:
Quail Hollow features tree-lined fairways, rolling terrain, strategically-placed water hazards, and firm undulating greens on approach. Though there are only 61 bunkers (11th fewest), they are well-utilized, laid out near landing zones along the fairways, and often in the direct line of approach shots around the greens.
With a SubAir system below the greens, tournament officials gradually firm up the greens throughout the week so that by Sunday, it becomes very tough to hold the green surface. This is another reason why long drivers of the ball have an advantage at Quail Hollow. More distance off the tee equates to higher-lofted and softer landing approach shots into firm tricky pin positions.
Before the 2016 renovation by Tom Fazio, Quail Hollow played nowhere near as tough as it does now. Between 2010 through 2015, the average score was 15-under with a birdie or better rate of 19%. In the three editions since the alterations, the average score has been 12-under with a birdie or better rate of only 17%. Basically, there are five scoring holes at Quail Hollow – the three par 5s and the two semi-driveable sub-350 yard par 4s. To have success on this course, players will need to birdie as many of those as possible and then hold on for dear life on the other 13 holes, which all average over par.
My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, so I’ll share my opinion on the best way to bet on each golfer in my player pool at this week’s event. When pricing out finishing position bets (T5, T10, T20s, etc.), I’ll often lean towards BetMGM even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. So know the rules of the books that you’re betting on!
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets from myself or other contributors. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
*Betting lines are accurate when posted in Discord.
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Noonan’s Wells Fargo Championship Betting Targets
Cam Young
Cam Young is still awaiting his first win on the PGA Tour, but it’s coming. This event feels like a great place for him to break through, considering that he’s fared well at the corollary courses I mentioned above, along with a few other top-ten finishes in majors against the world’s best.
He deserves our attention any time where distance off the tee is highlighted, and over the past 24 rounds, he ranks inside the top 10 in this field in long iron proximity. His putting hasn’t been nearly as sharp as it was during his 2022 season, but I believe there’s something to be said for his recent strong putting performances at Austin Country Club and Augusta lining up with the arrival of new caddie Paul Tesori. Tesori’s friend and former PGA pro Webb Simpson has had his fair share of successes around Quail Hollow, and that experience will help Young this week.
Max Homa
Max Homa cashed a 60/1 winner for me at this event last season, and while it’s important to note that last year’s event was played at TPC Potomac and not Quail Hollow, Homa has won here too, hoisting the first trophy of his PGA Tour career here back in 2019. He’s also won at Riviera and Torrey Pines, so while I was looking for reasons to not click Homa’s name this week, it got increasingly difficult to avoid him the more I dug into things.
Despite being 10th on the odds board, Homa ranks sixth in my model over the past 50 and 100 rounds, with no real weaknesses in his game. His short game is excellent, and he’s among the best long iron players in the world, which helps him pick apart long par-4s.
Taylor Moore
Taylor Moore jumps off the screen if I lean more toward short-term form. Over the past 12 rounds, Moore ranks fifth in my model, but that doesn’t even include his win at Copperhead. Back it out to the previous 24 rounds, and Moore ranks 14th, sandwiched between Homa and Young. He’s finished T39 or better in seven of his past eight starts, including a T4 last time out at the Zurich. I wanted to bet him last week in Mexico, but he chose not to go.
Moore carries plus distance while sacrificing little in terms of accuracy. Over the past 24 rounds, he’s inside the top 25 in this field in long par-4 scoring, short game, driving distance, and par-5 scoring. I don’t want to go down the board more than once, but Moore is my choice this week at 100/1. I’ll back it up in the finishing position market as well.
FanDuel Finishing Position Parlay
Jordan Spieth and Matthew Fitzpatrick – T40 (+106)
This is a relatively new entry to the space, thanks to our friends at FanDuel. I played a number of these last season with a 9.85% ROI, so I’ll continue it this season. If it’s not for you, feel free to skip it.
Unlike most other books I’m familiar with, FanDuel allows you to parlay finishing position bets. Now, the very premise of the bet is flawed because the expected value is negative since players are competing for the same finishing positions. If the bet is two T40s like this one, when one leg of your parlay finishes above the threshold, there’s now one less spot available in that range for the other leg(s) to also come in. I know the math is terrible. Spare me. But let’s be honest. Some bets are just fun, and these are fun for me.
The last time we saw these two, they were battling in a playoff to determine the winner at Harbour Town. I’m banking on that form to roll over here.
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