Not a ton to say about this that we didn’t cover in the preview we put out on YouTube this morning, but if you’re looking for a little more context into the course and what’s been successful here in the past, I’d encourage you to check out Ron’s course preview and his betting article. I decided to just base my plays on price, seeing how course fit can play a smaller role in matches where strategy is completely different at times. Path should be a factor in any bracket-style prognostication, but with the high variance of results and no time to run millions of sims, I tossed that out too and will focus most of my energy on matchups (and Puntacana).
Outrights
Berger +3000
This is my only real look after the draw, his price compared to where some of the other top players sit is making me go against my better judgment and adding an outright to a wildly volatile event.
These are my pre-draw long shots. Seeding is based on your OWGR so, I knew going in that they were always going to be placed in groups with top players, and to be honest, they all have tough draws so I’ll just be praying I can get one of these guys through to Saturday. Prices are the outright & top four wagers I placed early in the week in the discord.
Tringale +11000/+3000
Power +12500/+2500
List +15000/+3500
Group Winners
These are all pretty widely available numbers as I’m not seeing big differences in the markets in the group offerings, but it still wouldn’t hurt to poke around and see if you can do a little better. All three are just value plays on guys I think should have a leg-up in at least two of their three matches to start play this week.
Group 13 – Daniel Berger +210
Group 15 – Bubba Watson +250
Group 16 – Shane Lowry +220
Wednesday Matchups
Just a couple, because despite it being nothing but matchups, the offerings are actually a bit lighter than usual since the field is smaller. This is likely a theme for the week, as I doubt I’ll have more than a couple on Thursday and Friday as well but, I’ll certainly be looking at the Corales each night to see if I can extract any value there.
Bubba Watson > Abe Ancer +102
Russell Henley > Kevin Na -139
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