The world’s best golfers head to Austin, Texas this week for the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play event, a scheduling wrinkle to break up the monotony of standard tournament golf. The field of 64 takes on a round-robin format Wednesday through Friday, with 16 four-man groups playing head-to-head with the goal of advancing from their group into the ‘win and advance’ format over the weekend.
As last year showed, with just one of 16 top seeds moving on, Match Play brings an added layer of variance when compared to a traditional four-day stroke play event. Austin Country Club, designed by noted golf architect Pete Dye, adds another layer of randomness. A par-71 layout measuring just 7,108 yards from the tips keeps every skill set in play, limiting distance advantages off the tee. For more course details, check out Ron’s breakdown here.
Past Match Play Winners at Austin Country Club
- 2021: Billy Horschel over Scottie Scheffler
- 2019: Kevin Kisner over Matt Kuchar
- 2018: Bubba Watson over Kevin Kisner
- 2017: Dustin Johnson over Jon Rahm
A unique format also brings in unique betting opportunities. Betting outright winners is still in play, but betting on group winners is more commonplace and likely a better way to approach this week. Finishing position bets get the week off. I’ll share a couple of outright bets that I like, along with a few of my favorite group bets heading into Wednesday.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets. More than ever, the Discord is where you’ll want to be this week. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.
Outright Betting Picks
Xander Schauffele
Is there a more fitting event for Xander Schauffele to win than Match Play? The Olympic Gold Medal winner has thrived in non-traditional formats and non-cut events, and this week, he has the softest draw of any top-tier golfer in the field. He’s coming off of a T12 at the Valspar, where his ball-striking was immaculate, though the putter was fairly average—a bit of an anomaly for Schauffele. He’s 5-3-3 lifetime in match play singles, losing to eventual runner-up Scottie Scheffler in sudden death here last season. He’s the favorite to win Group 7, available at +165. His group features an out-of-form Tony Finau, Lucas Herbert, and Takumi Kanaya. It’s a trio lacking both form and upside to take down Schauffele in group play, and getting out of the initial stage is half the game. At 24/1 on FanDuel, Schauffle is the shortest price I’ll consider this week.
Tom Hoge
The only bet I made before the bracket reveal was Tom Hoge at 100/1. At that price, his combination of recent form and course fit made too much sense to me. I was rewarded with a very winnable draw for Hoge, whose group is led by defending champion Billy Horschel, and rounded out with Thomas Pieters and Min Woo Lee. Horschel is the deserved favorite in the group at +175, but you can make the case that Hoge, +250 on FanDuel, is the best tee-to-green player in his group, which is backed up by the #math. Over the past six months, Hoge ranks 11th in this field in strokes gained ball-striking, comfortably ahead of his Group 12 counterparts.
Group Play Bets
Group 8 Winner
Dustin Johnson
The demise of Dustin Johnson has been a bit premature, and he’s been rounding into form heading into Augusta. He has a solid track record of match play success over his career and was the winner of this event back in 2017. His dust-up with Kevin Na here last year was one of the more memorable moments of the week, after Na scolded him for assuming his 3-inch putt was a gimmie, and not asking before picking up his ball. We’re just two weeks removed from Johnson lighting Pete Dye’s signature course on fire in the final round at THE PLAYERS, where Johnson shot 63 and cashed one of the best backdoor top-10 finishes of all time. Wedge play is crucial here, and Johnson’s 38.5% birdie or better rate (BoB%) from 125 yards and in is the best rate in the field this week. There’s very little match play experience and a lot of volatility in his Group 8 peers, with Max Homa, Mackenzie Hughes, and Matthew Wolffe. I’ll eat some chalk with Johnson at +175 on FanDuel.
Group 9 Winner
Talor Gooch
I’m guessing Talor Gooch will be a pretty popular pick to make it out of Group 9. He’s paired with two guys nearly eligible for the Champions Tour in Lee Westwood and Richard Bland, along with Bryson DeChambeau, who we haven’t seen since he withdrew from the Saudi event in early February. A healthy DeChambeau has a less-than-stellar track record here as well, coming in at just 2-4, including a loss last year to noted giant killer Antoine Rozner. Gooch has a limited and unimpressive career mark in match play, but he’s improved greatly over the past calendar year and this course fits nicely with what he does well. He’s ninth in this field in BoB% from less than 125 yards, which should give him plenty of chances to win this week. He’s posted at +225 on DraftKings to win Group 9.
Group 10 Winner
Alex Noren
I don’t love the draw for Alex Noren, but it’s hard to not love his recent form and his stellar career mark in match play formats. He’s 19-8 in his career, and according to Justin Ray, Noren has either won or halved 81.4% of the holes he has played at Austin CC, the highest rate of anybody in the field this week with at least 60 holes played. That’s a ridiculous stat. Now, the draw is tough, let’s face it. Louis Oosthuizen, Paul Casey, and Corey Conners are three of the best ball-strikers in the world, but outside of Oosthuizen, putting can be an Achilles heel for all of them. If Noren continues to his recent form, where he’s gained strokes in 21 of his past 22 rounds, he’s moving on. FanDuel has him at +300 to win the group, the longest odds among the group.
Group 13 Winner
Daniel Berger
A case can be made for all four Group 13 participants, but I like Daniel Berger in this format and at this course. Over the past three months, he’s seventh in this field in total strokes gained per round, with no weakness in his game. His ability to maneuver off the tee and put himself in a position to attack pins will come into play, and that’s key in match play formats. He won two of his three matchups in convincing fashion at last year’s event, and also won his lone head-to-head at Whistling Straits against Matthew Fitzpatrick. Tyrrell Hatton vs. Daniel Berger will be a fun one to watch and will go a long way in deciding who comes out of the group. At +210 on FanDuel, I’m backing Berger and also sprinkling on him at 28/1 outright.
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