2023 Valero Texas Open – Round 4 Betting and Showdown Picks

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With one final round on Sunday before Masters week is here, a talented, yet winless PGA Tour veteran, Patrick Rodgers attempts to close out a victory and punch his ticket to Augusta National. Hot on his heels is the 2019 Valero champion, Corey Conners, who has not won a tournament since that Sunday four years ago. Matt Kuchar sits three shots back and cannot be counted out thanks to his elite course history at TPC San Antonio along with his steady current form. Both the data and the bookmakers have Conners as the favorite. He currently sits at +190 to win with Rodgers at +200 and Kuchar +750. While Rodgers and Conners rank one-two in strokes gained ball-striking this week, Conners gained over three strokes on Saturday to Rodgers 0.36. Conners is also a much better “Sunday” player gaining an average of 1.23 strokes in his last 24 final rounds compared to Rodgers at 0.15.

The wind situation is something to keep an eye on tomorrow. If conditions get gusty in the afternoon, it is possible that someone with an earlier tee time in calmer conditions could make a charge up the leaderboard. This situation would also be impactful for Showdown lineups as there are a number of highly volatile players teeing off early that could shoot a low number. This would include J.J. Spaun, Brendon Todd, and Taylor Montgomery,

Weather Forecast – Cibolo, Texas

Round 4 Betting Matchups Model

*Strokes Gained Rating (SG RTG) is the key metric that combines all the weighted categories in the model. Some players (or matchups) may not be listed due to not having enough sample size data.