2023 Valero Texas Open – Betting Preview

f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074b

With one week before perhaps the most anticipated Masters ever, the PGA Tour gathers in San Antonio, Texas for the 101st edition of the Valero Texas Open. After a week off for the match-play event, golfers return to the stroke-play format at the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio. This tournament was founded in 1922 and is the third longest-running event on the PGA Tour. It has been held in the San Antonio area since its origins and has moved to many different courses before finding its current home at the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio in 2010 when Adam Scott raised the trophy.

TPC San Antonio winds through the narrow corridors of the Cibolo Canyons, just north of the second most populous city in Texas. With fairways lined by brush and mature oak trees, tricky pin positions on elevated greens, one of the toughest sets of par 5s on Tour, and typical gusty “Texas” winds, it plays as the 14th toughest annual PGA course with golfers averaging 0.14 strokes over par per round. It is a unique layout in that it balances these narrow tree-lined alleys with wider fairways which provide strategic angles for approach shots.

There have been some shocking winners in the event in recent years. From Corey Conners winning as a qualifier in 2019 to Steven Bowditch triumphing in 2014 with odds of 350-1, anything is possible on the leaderboard come Sunday. Ultimately, it’s a complete challenge from tee to green that doesn’t favor any specific type of player. Keeping the ball in play off the tee, hitting accurate approaches to the proper quadrant on the greens, and gaining shots on the field on the par 5s are among the ingredients needed for success.

The Field

Though lacking in star power there is actually quite a bit of depth in this year’s field. There are 20 players slated to tee off who rank between 32nd and 84th in the Official World Golf Rankings. After a positive showing at the Dell Match Play, J.J. Spaun returns to defend his title after picking up his first career win here last year.

While most Masters participants chose to return home to work on their game, there are a few players choosing this event as their warm-up for Augusta. It’s a smaller list this year, but it includes Tyrrell Hatton, Hideki Matsuyama, Si Woo Kim, Chris Kirk, Corey Conners, Alex Noren, Sepp Straka, Cameron Champ, Francesco Molinari, and Ryan Fox. Two of those favorites, Hatton and Matsuyama both enter with question marks surrounding their health and are candidates to withdraw before Thursday. Hatton suffered a hand injury that affected his performance last week in Austin while Matsuyama continues to be hampered by a lingering neck injury.

Similar to Spaun last year, it is the last chance golfers in the field will have to make it into Augusta. Motivation will be high for all involved. If the winner of the Valero Texas Open is not yet qualified for the Masters, that player will earn a spot in the field. All eyes will be on Rickie Fowler as he has shown great recent form yet still sits outside of the requirements needed. Taylor Montgomery is another talented favorite who could punch his ticket with a victory this week. Overall, it’s a great week to chase unqualified golfers as eight of the past ten winners here were not originally in the Masters field.

2023 Valero Texas Open Betting Narratives and Strategies

Unique Model Weights

  • SG: Difficult Courses
  • SG: Winds 15+ mph

With many people already focusing on the Masters, the smart thing is to avoid all of the noise and focus on making a profit this week. One of the largest angles I am attacking relates to my “Core 4” model and a grouping of metrics I believe are paramount in moving up the leaderboard. Simply put, I am targeting players who have past success on other difficult scoring courses, who are strong in both long and short-term SG: Approach, and also in certain “Safety” metrics including Good Drive %, Sand Save %, and Bogey Avoidance.

Neither distance nor complete accuracy is vital off the tee at TPC San Antonio. The fact that you do not need to be long here is evidenced by the fact that the last six winners have averaged 38th for Driving Distance. Last year’s winner J.J. Spaun ranked 95th. As for Driving Accuracy, back in 2019, the top five finishers averaged ninth. This was followed by 2021’s winner, Jordan Spieth, ranking 109th in fairways gained. Then last year, J.J. Spaun was 7th best. While almost every driving hole is flanked by either rocky terrain or native Texas brush, it will only impact those who are wildly spraying their ball off the tee. Golfers simply need to keep the ball in play off the tee to give themselves a chance to hit the green on this true “second-shot” course.

All the seeming variety and randomness off the tee is a definite reason TPC San Antonio is one of the top “second-shot” courses as it is the eighth toughest layout to gain strokes on approach. Players entering this event who are hot with their irons are my first priority. Each of the past seven winners here gained at least three strokes in approach in the event before their victory. Golfers that fit that puzzle piece this week include Tyrrell Hatton, Si Woo Kim, Erik van Rooyen, Eric Cole, Nick Taylor, Matt Wallace, Emiliano Grillo, and Ben Martin.

Not only are the greens heavily guarded by difficult and deep bunkers, but many are also elevated above the fairway and do not provide bailout areas for errant shots. Players will also need to loft approach shots onto the proper quadrants of the greens due to the many undulations in order to get the ball to funnel as close to the pin as possible. Other than SG: Approach, there is such little correlation here with any other data point, most likely because TPC San Antonio doesn’t fit any singular type of player. Evidence of this is the fact that there have been so many mid-range and longshot winners here.

One final angle I am factoring in relates to the large grouping of players who have not yet punched a ticket to the Masters. I am banking on those players, which includes almost every single one of my outrights, to be very motivated this week. Obviously, a player like Rickie Fowler who has been the 13th-best player in the entire world over the past six months fits the bill. I was hoping for a better number but could resist the temptation of jumping on his 20-1 odds to win. On the flip side, I am fading many of the upper-tier players on the board who are already playing at Augusta next week. Not only is there little value for any wagers, but the fact they might be using this week as a warm-up for the Masters is potentially worrisome. Corey Conners is the one exception to this. Not only did he win here as a qualifier back in 2019, but as you can see in the chart below, he has always performed well above his baseline when playing the week directly before a major.

Most Important Stats For Success at the Valero Texas Open

*In order of importance

  • SG: APP
  • Bogey Avoidance
  • Par 5 Scoring
  • Scrambling
  • Good Drive %
  • Birdie or Better %
  • SG: Putting (Poa Trivialis courses)
  • SG: Wind
  • Sand Save %
  • Proximity 50-125 yds

Weather Forecast – San Antonio, Texas

The Valero Texas Open Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.

Outright Betting Selections

*Lines accurate at the time of publication.

Rickie Fowler +2000 (currently +1800)

Sometimes the popular pick is the correct one. It’s been a long wait since Fowler’s last victory back in 2019. But over the past six months, which included a caddie switch and a revamped swing, he is playing his best golf in years. During this time period, he is second in this field in strokes gained per round and first in approach. He has two top-17s here in his three appearances at TPC San Antonio. Pressure notwithstanding, with a Masters bid on the line to go along with his immaculate form, Fowler is an easy player to root for and wager on this week.

(1.20u) FanDuel

Taylor Montgomery +2800 (currently +2700)

After blitzing through group play in last week’s Dell Match Play event, Montgomery showed once again the enormous upside that he possesses. Though very inconsistent with his ball-striking at times, his elite short game, and especially his putting prowess, makes up for his other deficiencies. He ranks as the second-best player in the field over the past year and should be plenty motivated to achieve his first PGA victory and punch his ticket to the Masters.

(0.85u) FanDuel

Brendon Todd +5500

Ranking sixth overall in my model for the week, Todd is primed to get back into the winners circle. Having finished runner-up at Pebble Beach last month his form has been trending upward with three top-10s since the start of the new season. He also loves playing in Texas, finishing 3rd at the Schwab Challenge and 8th in this same event last year. Being one of the shorter hitter on Tour, he makes up for it with top-notch accuracy with his irons combined with an elite short game.

(0.43u) BetRivers

Cameron Davis +5500

After allegedly dealing with an extended sickness that rendered him virtually impotent over a five-week stretch of brutal missed cuts, Davis finally emerged a couple of weeks ago with a ninth-place finish at THE PLAYERS. One of the best young players on the Tour who excels with his irons and on par 5s, he is a great course fit this week and is a tremendous value to win at these odds.

(0.43u) BetRivers

Aaron Rai +7500 (currently +5500)

Rai should be in his element this week on a tough-scoring course that demands excellent tee-to-green performance. One of the most accurate ball-strikers in the field, his lack of distance off the tee won’t hurt him on a course where shorter hitters have had success year after year. He also ranks as one of the best wind players in my model. His past performance in windy conditions confirms this ranking which includes a victory in the 2020 Scottish Open along with a recent 7th-place finish in Houston last year. Coming off an impressive top-20 showing at THE PLAYERS, expect Rai to be in contention this week.

(0.32u) DraftKings

Finishing Position Picks

Top 20

Top 30 – BetRivers all (1u)

  • Thomas Detry +110 
  • J.J. Spaun +110
  • Ben Griffin +125
  • Nick Taylor +125
  • Brendon Todd +125
  • Cameron Davis +138
  • Aaron Rai +138

Top 40

This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.

Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images