There’s nothing else in the world of sports quite like The Masters. For most, it signals the beginning of spring. The tight shots of the azaleas in bloom. The piano playing that ditty that we’re so accustomed to as the coverage goes in and out of commercial breaks. Jim Nantz whispering sweet nothings to us as he sends us to Amen Corner for an update. The tree-lined shots of Magnolia Lane leading to the clubhouse.
Full transparency, I’m a sucker for all of it. Like most, I’ve never had the opportunity to attend The Masters, but it’s as close to the top of the bucket list as anything can get for me. By all accounts, time stops when you’re on the grounds at Augusta National. No cell phones. No overpriced vendors. Even the schmucks that yell ‘get in the hole!’ after every tee shot seems to understand that this place is different.
As of this writing, we’re looking at 88 competitors for the 87th edition of the Masters, representing 20 different countries, competing for one green jacket and the lifetime invitation to come back that comes with it. It’s an exclusive club with just 54 members to date, 18 of which will be taking part in this year’s tournament. And yes, that includes Tiger Woods. The added element of drama and intrigue this year surrounds the 18 LIV Golf participants that will be here, reunited on the course with their former PGA Tour comrades for the first time since The Open Championship last summer.
I could wax poetic about the “tradition unlike any other,” but let’s get to the goods.
Below is a list of this year’s participants, along with their Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR), notes on their history at Augusta, and a quick nugget regarding their recent form.
The “Last 4 Masters Finishes” show the most recent first (2022-2019), but if a golfer hasn’t played in every recent event but played previously, their past appearances are listed in order.
Abraham Ancer
Current OWGR: 30th
Best Finish At The Masters: 13 (2020)
Last 4 Masters Finishes (2022-2019): MC, 26, 13, -,
Abraham Ancer left for LIV Golf back in July, so he’s been out of sight, out of mind like many of his peers, unless you’re the one person tuning into the new CW coverage. I had to pause when I saw his recent run of strong finishes, remembering that LIV is a no-cut limited-field 54-hole exhibition.
Ok, enough picking on the low-hanging fruit. Ancer did win on the Asian Tour back in February, taking down the PIF Saudi International, a full-field cut event with a respectable field. I believe that shorter hitters like Ancer need to be perfect everywhere else in order to compete at Augusta, and that’s a tall task for anyone. He missed the cut here last year, making a mess on and around the greens, and he won’t make my betting card this year, either.
Sam Bennett (A)
Current OWGR: n/a
Best Finish At The Masters: n/a
Last 4 Masters Finishes: debutant
Sam Bennett became the first Texas A&M Aggie to win the U.S. Amateur back in August of 2022 when he defeated fellow 2023 Masters debutant Ben Carr at Ridgewood CC in New Jersey. This is his first trip to Augusta but not his first major championship golf experience after he qualified and made the cut (T49) at the 2022 U.S. Open at The Country Club in Brookline.
Keegan Bradley
Current OWGR: 22nd
Best Finish At The Masters: T22 (2015)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 43, 52, 22, MC
Keegan Bradley played in five straight Masters from 2012 to 2016, but it’s been tough sledding ever since. He qualified for the 2019 event, which was his last appearance here, finishing T43. If anything, that opening summary makes Bradley’s recent run all that more impressive, considering he was outside of the top 125 in the OWGR just two years ago.
He finished inside the top 20 in 36% of his 2022 starts, his best rate since 2014. That form has rolled over into 2023, with a win at the ZOZO Championship early in the season and a solo second-place finish at the Farmers in late January. He ranks inside the top 15 in total strokes gained per round over the past six months, with very few holes in his game now that his putting has improved. Betsperts Golf subscribers know I’m not afraid to go to the well with Keegan, but I’m going to cheer him on from the sidelines this week.
Sam Burns
Current OWGR: 15th
Best Finish At The Masters: n/a
Last 4 Masters Finishes: MC, -, -, –
Opening rounds of 75 and 74 were not enough for Sam Burns to extend his Masters debut into the weekend last season. At a place where course history matters more than anywhere, young Mr. Burns doesn’t quite have enough of it, though it was encouraging to see him light it up at Austin Country Club last week, taking home the win at the WGC Match Play event.
Burns had lost strokes on approach in nine of the past 12 starts prior to his performance at Match Play. He was able to get off the schneid at the Valspar, which is clearly his favorite place to play on Tour, and it was encouraging to see it roll over last week. I’ve always thought that we could see Burns being a viable contender at Augusta due to his plus-distance and strong baseline putting skills, so I’ll have to consider him more seriously this week.
Patrick Cantlay
Current OWGR: 4th
Best Finish At The Masters: 9 (2019)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 39, MC, 17, 9
Patrick Cantlay’s recent form is going under the radar because he’s yet to close the deal on a Sunday, while other high-profile golfers like Scheffler and Rahm have. He’s been a ball-striking machine, especially off the tee, ranking second in this field in SG: OTT over the past three months. Driving accuracy is not paramount to success at Augusta National, but positional golf is always preferred if you have it in your bag. The ability to set yourself up on one side of the fairway versus the other to have the ideal sight line for an approach will come in handy this week.
A third-round 79 here last season was Cantlay’s undoing and very uncharacteristic for someone as steady as he is. You can make a case for Cantlay this year because his current form is better than where he was heading into last season’s event.
Ben Carr (A)
Current OWGR: n/a
Best Finish At The Masters: n/a
Last 4 Masters Finishes: debutant
The local kid from Georgia Southern earned his Masters invite after reaching the finals of the U.S. Amateur in August, losing 1 up to Sam Bennett. As with any amateur debutant, making the cut should be the goal, but by all accounts, Carr’s true goal of the week is to land Tiger’s ear for a quick hello. Good luck, kid.
Cameron Champ
Current OWGR: 189th
Best Finish At The Masters: 10 (2022)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 10, 26, 19, –
Cameron Champ has yet to ascend from the bomber-only moniker that he established as an amateur, but he seems to be comfortable on the grounds of Augusta National. He’s made three trips here with two top-20 finishes, including a T10 last season, which is how he qualified for this year’s event. His recent form leaves a lot to be desired, though, and backing him to play well this week would be a blind course history play.
He’s missed the cut in nine of 12 starts this season, losing an average of 0.94 strokes per round on approach. It’s difficult to explain how bad that is.
Corey Conners
Current OWGR: 41st
Best Finish At The Masters: 6 (2022)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 6, 8, 10, 46
Corey Conners has sneaky-great course history here, with three consecutive top-10 finishes. His form heading into this year’s event isn’t quite as sharp as it’s been in years past, though. In 2023, Conners is down in every strokes-gained metric versus the previous three seasons. His swing season was solid with six straight T25 or better finishes, but he wasn’t in contention in any of those events.
Conners got off to a good start at the WGC Match Play and will likely tee it up at the Valero Texas Open, the home of his lone PGA Tour win, the week before the Masters, so he has time to get hot just in time for the season’s first major.
Update: Corey Conners found his form. An excellent performance in Austin was followed up by his second-career win at the Valero. His course history won’t sneak up on anyone at this point.
Fred Couples
Current OWGR: 1704
Best Finish At The Masters: 1 (1992)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: MC, MC, MC, MC
There was a five-year stretch in the early 2010s where Fred Couples showed that he could still compete even though he was 20 years removed from his 1992 Masters win. It appears that the window is fully closed though, with three straight Thursday-Friday trips to Augusta for Freddie Boom Boom. He’s a tremendous ambassador for the game and has lots of useful nuggets to share with the new faces making their way around here for the first time, but that’s where the good news ends.
Harrison Crowe (A)
Current OWGR: n/a
Best Finish At The Masters: n/a
Last 4 Masters Finishes: debutant
Harrison Crowe, a 21-year-old Aussie, won the 2022 Asia-Pacific Amateur and punched his ticket to this year’s event. Crowe also won on the Australian professional Tour in 2022, winning the New South Wales Open. He’ll be teeing it up at this year’s Open Championship as well.
More importantly for any 21-year-old, Crowe also went viral recently, hitting an approach shot off the sidewalk outside a pub in St. Andrews over the building and onto the 18th green.
Jason Day
Current OWGR: 33rd
Best Finish At The Masters: T2 (2011)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: MC, MC, T5, T20
Jason Day’s current form is insane. It’s not really an exaggeration to say that he’s been in the mix every week. He’s made 13 starts this season, finishing inside the top-21 11 times. Now, he’s only finished inside the top five two times in that time frame, but if you keep knocking on the door, eventually, someone will answer.
Day’s current 0.73 strokes gained per round on approach is the best rate of his career. His 0.55 strokes gained off the tee has only been topped once since 2015. His short game remains elite, and his 0.66 strokes gained per round putting is the best since 2018. He’s doing all of the things right now. He even had a spell of vertigo and flirted with withdrawing last week at the Match Play event! He’s back, baby!
Bryson DeChambeau
Current OWGR: 143rd
Best Finish At The Masters: 21 (2016)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: MC, 46, 34, 29
Bryson DeChambeau has competed in eight LIV Golf events, and he’s yet to contend in any of them. He appears to be miles away from the version that finished inside the top 20 in over 50% of his PGA Tour starts between 2018 and 2021.
His name value may bolster the price, but the only Bryson bet I’ll consider this week is ‘to miss the cut.’
Harris English
Current OWGR: 44th
Best Finish At The Masters: T21 (2021)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 21, 42, MC, –
In the summer of 2021, Harris English had worked his way into the OWGR top ten, even earning himself a spot on the United States Ryder Cup team. Since then, injuries have been at the forefront of English’s journey. He’s made 29 starts over the past two seasons, with just five top-20 finishes to show for it. He did have his best finish in ages recently, a T2 at Bay Hill, which is the only time in the past two months that English didn’t lose strokes on approach.
He’s so reliant on elite putting performances to prop him up right now. Until he can regain some of the ball-striking improvements that drove his 2021 success, he’s impossible to trust.
Mateo Fernandez de Oliveira (A)
Current OWGR: n/a
Best Finish At The Masters: n/a
Last 4 Masters Finishes: debutant
After finishing in second place at the 2021 Latin American Amateur Championship, Mateo Fernandez de Oliveira sealed the deal in record fashion in 2022, breaking Joaquin Niemann’s event record and punching tickets to not only The Masters but also the U.S. Open, Open Championship, U.S. and British Amateurs as well.
Tony Finau
Current OWGR: 12th
Best Finish At The Masters: 5 (2019)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 35, 10, 38, 5
Tony Finau entered last year’s event ranked 147th out of the top 150 in strokes-gained putting over the six months leading up to the event. Over the past year, Finau ranks 15th in this field in SG: P, a remarkable turnaround on the greens, which has translated into three tournament wins since his last trip to Augusta, a place that suits his game well and where he’s flashed upside in previous stops.
This version of Finau has no holes in his game. He’s gaining 1.24 strokes per round on approach, up 0.5 strokes per round over his 2022 mark of 0.74 strokes, which was the best of his career. We want form, fit, and course history at Augusta, and Finau checks every box.
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Current OWGR: 13th
Best Finish At The Masters: 7 (2016)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 14, 34, 46, 21
Matthew Fitzpatrick has transformed his game more than anyone over the past year or so, and it’s difficult to argue with the results after his U.S. Open win at Brookline back in June. Unfortunately, it appears the form that Fitzy brought to Brookline stayed in Massachusetts.
Fitzpatrick has lost strokes on approach in five of his past six starts and has missed the cut in four of them. That’s troubling. His short game can hide a lot of woes, but you can’t go to Augusta and fake it tee to green. I think Fitzpatrick’s new game, when firing on all cylinders, is an excellent fit to succeed here, but it’s also a horrifying place to tee it up at when you’re scuffling.
Tommy Fleetwood
Current OWGR: 26th
Best Finish At The Masters: 14 (2022)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 14, 46, 19, 36
We’re not quite back to the 2019 levels that had Tommy Fleetwood ranked among the top 10 in the world, but he’s starting to round the corner. Last year’s T14 here was his best career finish at a Masters, and he quietly went on to bag top-five finishes at both the PGA Championship and Open Championship last year as well.
He found the winner’s circle for the first time since 2019 back in November, winning the Nedbank Golf Challenge on the Euro Tour, and a recent T3 at the Valspar is a feather in his cap in terms of recent form. I think his ceiling is capped at Augusta National because he’s fairly pedestrian off the tee, but another top-20 finish is within the range of outcomes.
Ryan Fox
Current OWGR: 34th
Best Finish At The Masters: n/a
Last 4 Masters Finishes: debutant
Ryan Fox went on an absolute tear for a stretch last season. Fox won two DP World Tour events but flirted with a multitude of others. Remarkably, Fox finished inside the top 5 in eight of his 24 starts in 2022, mixing in a bunch of missed cuts along the way as well, so we’re looking at an extremely volatile player.
The start to the 2023 season hasn’t been quite as electric, but Fox is showing more consistency, making the cut in all six starts this year with four top-20 finishes, though he’s yet to truly contend. His length off the tee should be an asset at Augusta, but this will be his debut at The Masters, and it’s rare for a debutant to pop here.
Sergio Garcia
Current OWGR: 149th
Best Finish At The Masters: 1 (2017)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 23, MC, MC, MC
Sergio’s T23 here last year was his first made cut since winning here in 2017. It’s difficult to handicap LIV Golf participants because most have played limited golf over the past nine months, but I suppose that’s a feature and not a bug. Allegedly.
When you remove the 2017 victory and look at his career at Augusta before and after winning the green jacket, 2017 feels more like an outlier than an inevitable culmination of someone who’s dominated this event. He’s missed the cut in five of his 15 Masters, with just three top-10 finishes, including the year he won.
Talor Gooch
Current OWGR: 50th
Best Finish At The Masters: 14 (2022)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 14, -, -, –
Talor Gooch rarely gains off the tee, which makes navigating Augusta National challenging, but Gooch is so good from the fairway that he typically finds himself in contention when the driver is working. His recent form in the limited LIV Golf starts that he’s made is fairly middling, finishing in the 12-to-20 range in five straight starts in the 48-man field, 3-round exhibitions.
Without a ton of encouraging form or a skill set that I’d like for this event, Gooch is someone I’m avoiding this week despite a solid debut here in 2022.
Brian Harman
Current OWGR:: 28th
Best Finish At The Masters: 12 (2021)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: MC, 12, T44, MC
I want to find reasons to back Brian Harman at a venue that’s historically favored southpaws, but his current form is tough to stomach. He’s lost strokes on approach in seven consecutive starts and missed the cut in four of six. Historically, Harman has been a form player, meaning that he gets hot and rides it out for a bit. Now form is certainly fickle, and he could find it between now and his tee time for Round 1, but I wouldn’t count on it.
Tyrrell Hatton
Current OWGR: 16th
Best Finish At The Masters: 18 (2021)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 52, 18, MC, 56
When it all comes together for him, Hatton is one of the world’s best, and the market isn’t showing us that right now. He’s finished T7 or better in four of his past six starts, and in terms of course fit, Hatton should perform well annually at Augusta. Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case.
Hatton’s best finish here was a T18 back in 2021, and he’s been vocal about his frustrations with the setup and course over the years. Shocking, I know. Despite the form and fit, I will pass on Hatton here until I see it first.
Russell Henley
Current OWGR: 36th
Best Finish At The Masters: 11 (2017)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 30, T15, T11, 21
It’s been a slow start to the season for Russell Henley, who finished 30th here in 2022, making his first Masters appearance since 2018. His recent form is a bit out of character, losing strokes on approach in three straight starts (Phoenix, Riviera, Bay Hill), which Henley hasn’t done since June of 2017.
Henley’s only path to success at this event is through exceptional iron play, and even so, he’ll be hard-pressed to finish inside the top 10. If he can get his approach game dialed in, perhaps there’s another T20 to be had, but that’s his ceiling right now.
Kazuki Higa
Current OWGR: 81st
Best Finish At The Masters: n/a
Last 4 Masters Finishes: debutant
Higa is a 27-year-old who primarily plays on the Japan Golf Tour, though he’s had some success in a few DP World Tour events in limited appearances, including a T11 and T4 in his last two starts. Higa won four times on the Japan Tour in 2022 and finished first on the Japan Golf Tour’s Order of Merit last year.
The talent is clearly there, but he doesn’t profile as a long hitter, which can make navigating Augusta for the first time all that more difficult.
Tom Hoge
Current OWGR: 25th
Best Finish At The Masters: 39 (2022)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 39, -, -, –
Elite iron play travels and, in my opinion, makes up for a lot of other deficiencies in a player’s game. That’s what brought Tom Hoge here this year. The elite iron play has continued, but Hoge is inconsistent off the tee and on the greens. That’s a difficult combination here, a place known for its undulating and unique green complexes, which is part of why experience matters so much here. The encouraging news for Hoge backers this week is how well he rolled it at Kapalua back in January.
The green complexes at the Kapalua are often compared to Augusta due in large part to the slope, grain, and tiers that make it difficult to hole putts at both events. Hoge finishes T3 at Kapalua, gaining 0.72 strokes per round on the greens. He’s an inconsistent putter but has the spiked-week upside that you want.
Max Homa
Current OWGR: 6th
Best Finish At The Masters: 48 (2022)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 48, MC, MC, –
Since last year’s event, no golfer has taken bigger strides in their overall position in the game than Max Homa. Now up to 6th in the OWGR, Homa has shown that he can contend at any style, of course, and not just contend, but close. He’s won three times in the past calendar year, with five more T5 or better finishes, and has finished T20 or better in eight of his 10 starts this season.
I know his course history here is limited and uninspiring, but if you can win at Quail Hollow, Riviera, and Torrey Pines, you can win anywhere.
What: Sign up HERE to get entered for FREE into Paige’s Augusta Contest
When: You can sign up and enter the contest any time before play at Augusta tees off on the morning of Thursday, April 6th
How: Two winners who beat Paige’s score in the Augusta Contest will be randomly selected to play a round of golf at one of the top courses in the United States. Free round-trip flight and hotel stay will be included in the prize.
NOTE: There is limited space available in Paige’s Augusta Contest, so sign up NOW to ensure your spot!
Billy Horschel
Current OWGR: 24th
Best Finish At The Masters: 17 (2016)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 43, 50, 38, 56
Billy Horschel came here last year in the midst of the best stretch of golf in his career. Unfortunately, that form produced a T43 finish, yet another less-than-stellar Masters for the firey Florida Gator.
Despite that result, I’m sure Horschel would love that form heading into this season’s event because he’s been struggling mightily throughout the bag. Over the past three months, Horschel ranks 143rd out of the world’s top 150 in total strokes gained per round. Even his putter has let him down of late. I’m also open to backing Horschel when the Tour is in the southeast, but that excludes Augusta National.
Viktor Hovland
Current OWGR: 9th
Best Finish At The Masters: 21 (2021)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 27, 21, -, 32
Viktor Hovland is going to win a green jacket at some point in his career. He’ll win multiple if he ever figures out how to navigate his short game and become more consistent.
Hovland’s fifth in the world in SG: BS over the past three months. He hasn’t missed a cut since the Scottish Open in July, 17 straight events, and he’s finished T20 in 12 of the 17 and six of the past seven. He gained over eight strokes on approach at The PLAYERS, and his driver remains one of the best weapons on Tour. He’ll be on my betting card for this year’s Masters; I’m just not sure in what capacity yet.
Mackenzie Hughes
Current OWGR: 60th
Best Finish At The Masters: 40 (2021)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 50, 40, MC, –
Mackenzie Hughes has played in 25 events since last year’s Masters, and he’s finished inside the top 20 in just three of the 25 starts. Luckily for Hughes, one was a win at Sanderson Farms in October, which punched his ticket to this year’s event.
His game is not built for this course. He’s added distance this season, but it’s inconsistent, as is his entire tee-to-green game. He’s even had a few horrendous putting performances this season, which is typically his bread and butter. It’s a no for me, dawg.
Sungjae Im
Current OWGR: 18th
Best Finish At The Masters: 2 (2020)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 8, MC, 2, –
Sungjae Im is so consistently good, but he’s the new Tony Finau. I think it’s only a matter of time until Im breaks through again, but he’s at or around the top too often to not close more.
As it turns out, winning golf tournaments is quite difficult, so I don’t mean to disparage Im in any way. He’s still just 24 years old and finished inside the top 20 in 23 of his past 39 starts. He’s really good. A finishing position bet is assured, and he’s on the shortlist for outright bet consideration.
Dustin Johnson
Current OWGR: 65th
Best Finish At The Masters: 1 (2020)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 12, MC, 1, 2
Dustin Johnson’s current OWGR is laughable, but it speaks more to the current state of professional golf than it does about DJ as a player. I still believe he has what it takes to show up and take this home. He was dominant in his COVID-Delayed victory here back in the fall of 2020, and while it’s difficult to argue that the course played significantly different than it does each spring, he finished inside the top ten in four straight appearances leading up to the 2020 victory.
As of now, I have not bet on DJ to win this week, but that has more to do with his price than his recent lackluster showings at LIV events. Expect him to be in the mix on the weekend, and don’t be surprised if he wins.
Zach Johnson
Current OWGR: 230th
Best Finish At The Masters: 1 (2007)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: MC, MC, 51, 58
America’s next Ryder Cup captain made three straight cuts here before consecutive missed cuts in 2021 and 2022. The days of him contending in Majors, especially this one, are behind him. Johnson’s ball striking has fallen off a cliff, and Augusta is not the place to get right.
Si Woo Kim
Current OWGR: 39th
Best Finish At The Masters: 12 (2021)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 39, 12, 34, 21
There’s a lot of volatility to Si Woo Kim’s game, but he’s consistently fared well at Augusta. He’s an elite driver of the golf ball, something that’s vital to success here. His irons have cooled a bit since his early-season win in Hawaii but spiked again at TPC Sawgrass, to no one’s surprise.
His putting performances on a week-to-week basis are not for the faint of heart, but if his iron play matches up with a hot putting week, Si Woo should find himself playing here on the weekend again and teasing the top 20.
Tom Kim
Current OWGR: 19th
Best Finish At The Masters: n/a
Last 4 Masters Finishes: debutant
It’s rare to see someone who’s ranked inside the top 20 in the world making their debut at The Masters, but Tom Kim’s meteoric rise late last summer was just as rare. Kim won twice in four starts on the back of exceptional ball-striking performances, and he continued to play well into the swing season. The 20-year-old Kim had a twelve-tournament run that saw him finish T13 or better in nine starts.
As expected, that run was not something that he could sustain, though I remain bullish on his long-term prospects. Over the past few months, Kim has been more of a +1 stroke golfer versus the field compared to the +2.5-3 stroke golfer that we saw back in August. He’s been able to add distance to his game without sacrificing accuracy, and that definitely has my attention moving forward, but I’ll be light on Kim for his first trip to Augusta.
Chris Kirk
Current OWGR: 33rd
Best Finish At The Masters: T20 (2014)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: MC, T33, T20, –
Chris Kirk returns to The Masters for the first time since 2016 after his Honda Classic win back in February. It’s a great redemption story, and I’m thrilled for him, but enough with the pleasantries.
Kirk’s putting performances have been a big part of his 2023 success, and we know how noisy that can be, but I’m concerned about his disadvantage off the tee and how that plays out here. Kirk has been below Tour average in adjusted driving distance for seven straight seasons, and on the year, he’s a slight negative in SG: OTT, posting his worst rate since 2019. That’s not a great recipe for success at Augusta.
Kevin Kisner
Current OWGR: 48th
Best Finish At The Masters: 21 (2019)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 44, MC, MC, 21
Kevin Kisner is in a pretty sizable funk right now. You know things are bad when he’s not even competitive in Match Play. He’s missed the cut in four of his past five starts, sprinkling in a solo-75th at The PLAYERS to break things up.
The season is early, with just nine starts in the books, but Kevin Kisner is currently negative in every strokes gained metric this season. Even putting, where he hasn’t dipped below 0.42 strokes gained per round since 2015. The only bet to make here is ‘to miss the cut.’
Kurt Kitayama
Current OWGR: 21st
Best Finish At The Masters: n/a
Last 4 Masters Finishes: debutant
Kudos to Kurt Kitayama, who ranked 204th in the OWGR at this time last season. He’s played some terrific golf this season, highlighted by his recent win at Bay Hill. Kitayama is making his Masters debut, so I’m naturally hesitant to back him this week, but I’m interested to see how he approaches this course.
Kitayama can hit it a mile, but it’s clear that he’s forgone a bit of distance in the name of accuracy when it comes to his driver. Augusta doesn’t punish you a ton for wayward drives, but knowing where and when you can be more aggressive is hopefully something caddie Tim Tucker can help him navigate.
Brooks Koepka
Current OWGR: 106th
Best Finish At The Masters: 2 (2019)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: MC, MC, 7, 2
The recent version of Brooks Koepka doesn’t feel like the same guy who walked into every 2019 Major like he was in the club and about to poach your girl off your arm. It was tough to watch Brooks in the recent Netflix documentary ‘Full Swing,’ and recent reports about his current status and future with LIV Golf and all that goes along with it make it tough to confidently back Brooks Koepka right now.
He won the mid-October exhibition in Jeddah, but performances have been uninspiring since. If Brooks or any of the LIV guys are in contention on the weekend, this will make a must-watch event that much more interesting.
Update: Brooks Koepka secured his second LIV Golf victory at last week’s Orlando event. This is going to be a fun week of golf.
Jason Kokrak
Current OWGR: 80th
Best Finish At The Masters: 14 (2022)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 14, 49, MC, –
Kokrak surprised with a T14 here last season, driving the ball well and scrambling his face off. As is the case with his peers, I don’t have a great sense of his current form. He finished inside the top 20 in his two recent Asian Tour events but has finished inside the top 10 in LIV Golf’s 48-man fields just once in seven starts.
Bernhard Langer
Current OWGR: n/a
Best Finish At The Masters: 1 (1985)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: MC, MC, 29, 62
Of all the past Masters’ champions that still play regularly on the Champions Tour, Bernhard Langer is the belle of the ball. He competes and wins regularly, including two wins in his past seven starts and three total since last year’s Masters.
After making three straight cuts here, Langer has missed the week the past two years. Despite his Champions Tour dominance, I think the trend continues.
K.H. Lee
Current OWGR: 40th
Best Finish At The Masters: –
Last 4 Masters Finishes: MC, -, -, –
K.H. Lee defended his 2021 win at May’s Byron Nelson, holding off a strong field to win the 2022 version, punching himself another ticket to Augusta. He remains a rollercoaster of results, though outside of the Byron Nelson wins, the coaster doesn’t go very high.
He’s above average in each strokes gained metric though his game has no consistent strength or reliable asset. He’s capable of spiked weeks, but I’m not counting on him spiking here.
Min Woo Lee
Current OWGR: 47th
Best Finish At The Masters: T14 (2022)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 14, -, -, –
Min Woo Lee is an interesting young prospect that’s shown incredible flashes of brilliance at times despite only appearing in a handful of PGA Tour starts. He had a run on the DP World Tour from October to January, where he made eight starts, finishing no worse than T13, with five of the finishes coming between T2 and T4.
He can hit it a mile and has shown a pretty strong ceiling on the greens with the ability to get white-hot, as he did at The PLAYERS, where he finished T6 after a brutal Sunday, but his irons are inconsistent. He showed that putting prowess here last year in his debut appearance, and another T20 finish would not surprise me.
Shane Lowry
Current OWGR: 23rd
Best Finish At The Masters: 3 (2022)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 3, 21, 25, MC
It was great to see Shane Lowry finally get a win at the DP World Tour’s BMW Championship in September, considering he played so well in 2022 leading up to it but hadn’t sealed the deal. It’s been a rocky ride for Lowry since the victory, and he feels far removed from the form that he carried into last year’s eventual T3 finish.
Lowry’s short game is a mess. He’s down nearly a full stroke per round on and around the green compared to his 2022 metrics and his tee-to-green game is far less consistent than it was last season. I’m not saying to completely avoid Lowry this week, but don’t blindly overrate last season’s T3 finish.
Sandy Lyle
Current OWGR: n/a
Best Finish At The Masters: 1 (1988)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: MC, MC, MC, MC
If you’re reading the Sandy Lyle write-up, you have to really step back and take a look at yourself in the mirror. Why are you here? Are you just reading this entire thing? First of all, thank you. It’s taken me a very long time to get here.
Now, let’s talk about my issues because I looked into Sandy Lyle’s play of late instead of just crossing him off and moving along. Turns out the 64-year-old Lyle, winner of the 1988 edition, has gained strokes in three total rounds since April 15th, 2018. Three rounds. Ok, don’t stop reading now. It gets better down the stretch.
Hideki Matsuyama
Current OWGR: 20th
Best Finish At The Masters: 1 (2021)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 14, 1, 13, 32
Unfortunately, a year later, we’re still dealing with weekly health and in-tournament withdrawal concerns for the 2021 Masters champion. He’s far less reliable, but he still possesses immense upside whenever teeing it up, and we saw a glimpse of that recently at TPC Sawgrass, where Matsuyama finished by himself in fifth place.
The sample size is small, with just 11 2023 starts, but Matsuyama is currently having the best SG: putting season of his career. His ball-striking metrics have taken a dip, but he’s still consistently gaining tee-to-green, so I’m not panicking. He’s finished inside the top 20 here in seven of his past eight starts, and I’m open to backing him to make it eight of nine.
Matthew McClean (A)
Current OWGR: n/a
Best Finish At The Masters:
Last 4 Masters Finishes: debutant
Matthew McClean is a 29-year-old optometrist from Belfast, Ireland. He’s clearly a hell of a golfer, too, securing his invitation to this year’s Masters after winning the U.S. Mid-Amateur Championship at Erin Hills back in September. McClean joined Graeme McDowell (U.S. Open 2010), Rory McIlroy (U.S. Open 2011), and PĆ”draig Harrington (U.S. Seniors Open 2022) as Irish golfers to have won a USGA championship.
Rory McIlroy
Current OWGR: 3rd
Best Finish At The Masters: 2 (2022)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 2, MC, 5, 21
You may have heard this before, but a Masters win is the final piece of the career Grand Slam for Rory McIlroy. I know! I was stunned to learn this too.
McIlroy’s impressive final round 64 shot him up the leaderboard last year, where he eventually finished solo-second, and we all remember his insane green-side bunker hole-out on 18 to end his tournament. Last year’s Masters started an incredible run of golf that catapulted Rory to the top spot in the OWGR and, eventually, his third Tour Championship.
As good as McIlroy played last season, he’s hitting his irons significantly better than he did in 2022. In fact, Rory’s 2023 SG: APP numbers are his best since 2012, up a half-stroke per round from last season, which is remarkable. He’s been a top-ten machine here, and another one feels likely, but McIlroy’s goal is obvious.
Adrian Meronk
Current OWGR: 55th
Best Finish At The Masters: n/a
Last 4 Masters Finishes: debutant
6’6″ Polish hammer, Adrian Meronk, had a great run on the DP World Tour at this time last season, with multiple top-five finishes before eventually winning the Irish Open in July. He also won in Australia back in December. He has upside, and distance off the tee, which we know plays well here, but he’s far too inconsistent to trust in his first walk around this place.
Phil Mickelson
Current OWGR: 374th
Best Finish At The Masters: 1st (2004, 2006, 2010)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 21, 55, 18, 36
Oh, to be a fly on the wall for Tuesday night’s Champions Dinner. It’s been a busy year for Phil, but the on-the-course performance is so far away from anything that’s relevant. He has one top-ten finish in nine LIV Golf starts, finishing in the bottom half of the 48-man field seven times.
Keith Mitchell
Current OWGR: 46th
Best Finish At The Masters: T43 (2019)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: 43, -, -, –
A strong swing season rolled over to the west coast swing for Keith Mitchell, who worked his way into the OWGR top 50, earning the second Masters invite of his second career. Mitchell usually waits until he gets back to the southeast before he starts showing up on the first page of leaderboards, but he bagged T5 or better at Pebble Beach and Riviera this season, highlighting his through-the-bag improvements.
Those are very different golf courses and different playing surfaces than we’re accustomed to seeing Mitchell succeed on. Turns out, elite ball striking travels, and Mitchell has been increasingly consistent tee-to-green. He’s elite off the tee, leading the Tour in Total Driving, which combines distance and accuracy. That’ll play well next week.
Larry Mize
Current OWGR: n/a
Best Finish At The Masters: 1 (1987)
Last 3 Masters Finishes: MC, MC, MC, MC
Larry Mize made the cut in back-to-back years in 2016 and 2017 but has failed to make the weekend in 16 of the past 21 seasons. The 1987 champ keeps coming back though, and I’d sure as hell do the same thing if I won this thing. It’s one of the coolest perks, a lifetime invite, and I’d make them wheel my ass out, walker and all, if I had to. Good for you, Larry.
Francesco Molinari
Current OWGR: 123rd
Best Finish At The Masters: 5 (2019)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: MC, 52, MC, 5
Without Francesco Molinari’s fourth-round water ball on the 12th hole back in 2019, we may not have been privy to one of the coolest sports moments of all time, so for that, I’m eternally grateful. This version of Molinari is quite different than the 2019 iteration that was contending each time out.
He’s been playing more golf over the past year than he was heading into last year’s event, but he’s not playing well enough to bet on him to finish well or even make the weekend.
Taylor Moore
Current OWGR: 49th
Best Finish At The Masters: n/a
Last 4 Masters Finishes: debutant
A strong late-summer push from Taylor Moore turned into a solid swing season and culminated recently at the Valspar, Moore’s first win on Tour. He’s been rolling it well all season long but has also found more consistency in his irons, making his recent run feel more sustainable.
His distance should help make his first trip to Augusta easier, but I’m not considering him for my betting card this week.
Collin Morikawa
Current OWGR: 11th
Best Finish At The Masters: 5 (2022)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 5, 18, 44, –
Even though he hasn’t won in nearly 18 months, I still believe Collin Morikawa is a threat to win whenever he tees it up. He’s been incredibly close to ending his winless draught multiple times this season, but a few poor putting rounds in big spots have been his undoing.
In his first two trips to Augusta, he felt that he was forced to play a draw, regretfully straying away from his more comfortable fade and leading to pre-shot thoughts and routines that had him overthinking while standing over the ball. That adjustment back to his fade served him well last season, leading to a solo fifth-place finish, the best of his young career. Morikawa will win a green jacket. I’m just not sure if this is the year or not.
Kevin Na
Current OWGR: 88th
Best Finish At The Masters: T12 (2021)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 14, 12, 13, 46
Kevin Na has faired surprisingly well at Augusta National of late, getting it done despite his lack of distance. He’s done it in different ways, too, making every putt in 2021 despite a lackluster performance on approach and then doing the opposite in 2022.
The song for most of these LIV Golf participants is the same as far as I’m concerned. They’ve played less and, in most cases, not well enough to be taken seriously this week, at least in terms of winning this thing.
Joaquin Niemann
Current OWGR: 27th
Best Finish At The Masters: 35 (2022)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 35, 40, -, –
Joaquin Niemann came out and shot a very nice first-round 69 last season. On the surface, that’s not particularly notable, but Niemann was playing in front of the mob that followed Tiger Woods around. I shouldn’t have been surprised, especially considering Niemann’s form heading into last year’s event, where he won Tiger’s Genesis Invitational just a few weeks prior.
Compared to some of the other top names in LIV, Niemann has played well since making the switch. I think he’ll continue to improve his finishes here for as long as he’s eligible to play, and he might come at a bit of a discount this week.
Alex Noren
Current OWGR: 44th
Best Finish At The Masters: 62 (2019)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 62, MC, MC, –
Alex Noren finds himself inside the top 50 of the OWGR, and he’s qualified for his first trip to Augusta since 2019. The first three have not been great, and to be frank, I don’t expect much out of the fourth.
Noren had an outstanding swing season, with three straight T5 or better finishes. Most of his recent successes have been tied to exceptional putting performances, but his approach play has been inconsistent, and he’s lost strokes off the tee in five straight starts. That’s not the profile of a contender.
Jose Maria Olazabal
Current OWGR: n/a
Best Finish At The Masters: 1 (1994 & 1999)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: MC, 50, MC, MC
The two-time Masters champion out of Spain has been kicking it around on the Champions Tour a bit, but not well. His T50 here in 2021 was his first made cut at the event since 2014, and I’m willing to bet his new missed cut streak lasts for quite a while.
Louis Oosthuizen
Current OWGR: 104th
Best Finish At The Masters: 2 (2012)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: WD, 26, 23, 29
Louis has been a cut-maker here, with eight straight in the bag before last year’s withdrawal after round 1, but outside of his 2012 runner-up finish, he hasn’t been in the mix on Sundays. He finished fourth in the last “Golf, but louder” exhibition, so that’s a bit encouraging.
Mito Pereira
Current OWGR: 53rd
Best Finish At The Masters: n/a
Last 4 Masters Finishes: debutant
Mito Pereira punched his ticket to Augusta with his T3 finish at the PGA Championship. That sentence doesn’t tell the entire story, but Mito showed what he’s capable of that week at Southern Hills.
He’s been competitive since joining LIV Golf, and perhaps he’ll play well at this week’s Orlando event, but few LIV participants are getting my money this week, and even fewer debutants, so this isn’t a great mix.
Thomas Pieters
Current OWGR: 43rd
Best Finish At The Masters: T4 (2017)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: MC, MC, T4, –
Thomas Pieters splashed onto the scene with a T4 in his Masters’ debut back in 2017 but has failed to make the cut in his following two starts in 2018 and 2022.
Pieters is a streaky player, routinely stacking together strong finishes, so I’m a bit concerned that he’s been near the bottom of the pack since jumping ship to LIV Golf back in February.
J.T. Poston
Current OWGR: 49th
Best Finish At The Masters: n/a
Last 4 Masters Finishes: MC, -, -, –
J.T. Poston made his Masters debut back in the fall of 2020, so this will be his first trip around here in the spring. By all accounts, the fall Covid-delayed event played unlike any other Masters, so you can make the case that this is Poston’s debut at Augusta.
Poston’s coming off of a group win at last week’s Match Play on the back of a solid T10 at the Valspar, moving him up the OWGR and punching his ticket to The Masters. Poston’s approach game is as good as ever, and that travels, but this doesn’t feel like a place that suits his game very well, so I’m not chasing his form.
Aldrich Potgieter (A)
Current OWGR: n/a
Best Finish At The Masters: n/a
Last 4 Masters Finishes: debutant
Aldrich Potgieter won the 127th British Amateur in convincing fashion last year and earned himself a spot in this year’s Masters. What’s even more impressive is that he did so at just 17 years old while making his debut on a links course. That win also earned him a spot on one of the most famous links courses on the planet, St. Andrews, for last season’s 150th Open Championship.
Potgieter missed the cut and will likely do the same at Augusta, but he’s a name to store away for future years.
Seamus Power
Current OWGR: 35th
Best Finish At The Masters: 27 (2022)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 27, -, -, –
A T27 in his debut is nothing to scoff at, but the recent form for Seamus Power is. After an awesome swing season and a strong start to the 2023 calendar year, Power has scuffled a bit as of late. I’d be more optimistic if there was a singular area that was letting him down, but it’s a little bit of everything.
I think replicating his T27 last season would be a welcomed sight for Power, but he won’t find his way on my betting card.
Jon Rahm
Current OWGR: 3rd
Best Finish At The Masters: 4 (2018)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 27, 5, 7, 9
Jon Rahm has played well in each of his previous Masters’ appearances but is yet to truly contend here. We’re only a few weeks removed from an insane stretch of golf that had Rahm sitting atop the OWGR, a 10-tournament stretch where Rahm won five times, finishing no worse than T8.
The three starts since have been very anti-Rahm. He was bounced in the group play round at last week’s Match Play event, which was his first start since his WD at The PLAYERS. I’m not really concerned about Rahm, and in fact, I’m optimistic that he’ll be the forgotten man in the current ‘Big 3’, with Rory chasing the career game slam and Scheffler looking to repeat.
Patrick Reed
Current OWGR: 70th
Best Finish At The Masters: 1 (2018)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 35, 8, 10, 36
I can’t. Well, I can, but I won’t. Maybe you can or want to, but I don’t.
The case for Patrick Reed this week would be centered around his course history at Augusta, and his second-place finish at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic back in late January shows that he’s not too far removed from top-tier form. You can also make the case that his second in Dubai was aided by a very questionable ruling, allegedly. He’s not in play for me, but I’d be lying if I said I don’t want him in the mix on Sunday. It would create an incredible TV-watching experience.
Justin Rose
Current OWGR: 31st
Best Finish At The Masters: 2 (2017)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: MC, 7, 23, MC
Justin Rose is on the other side of his peek, but he’s shown strides this season and looks world’s better than what we’ve seen over the past three seasons. Rose has improved in all of his strokes gained tee-to-green metrics this season and is up nearly a full stroke per round on last season’s rates.
He’s played exceptionally well here throughout his career, finishing T25 or better in 13 of his 16 starts. He’s not someone I’ll consider for an outright bet, but I’m certainly interested in him as a likely plus-money T40 finisher.
Gordon Sargent (A)
Current OWGR: n/a
Best Finish At The Masters: n/a
Last 4 Masters Finishes: debutant
Gordon Sargent, the 19-year-old reigning NCAA individual champion, received an unprecedented “special invitation” to this year’s event. This could mark the beginning of the NCAA individual champ earning an invite, but like many things, that’s at the discretion of the folks at Augusta National.
The Vanderbilt phenom can absolutely bomb it, which we know plays well at Augusta, but just like any debutant, expectations should remain low, and a made cut should feel like a win.
Xander Schauffele
Current OWGR: 10th
Best Finish At The Masters: 2 (2019)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: MC, 3, 17, 2
Xander Schauffele is one of the most consistent golfers on the planet. He’s a top-20 machine, and he finishes inside the top five at the same rate that other above-average golfers on Tour finish inside the top-20. That’s what made his 2022 missed cut all the more surprising.
Schauffele clearly maximized the weekend off because he went out and won three of his next seven starts, including back-to-back starts at the Travelers and Scottish Open. He’s struggled off the tee a bit of late, but his irons have been the best of his career, gaining 1.12 strokes per round on the field. I’m sure he’ll use the next ten or so days to get himself dialed in off the tee, and another top 20 finish feels likely.
Scottie Scheffler
Current OWGR: 1
Best Finish At The Masters: 1 (2022)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 1, 18, 19, –
Scottie Scheffler put a bow on his dominant 2022 with a win here, his fourth and final win last season. His putter let him down over the summer, but when you’ve ascended to this level of professional golf, a 12-15 tournament winless streak gets people’s attention, as crazy as it sounds.
Scheffler is all the way back, defending his win in Phoenix and winning this year’s PLAYERS in dominant fashion, just in time to head back to Augusta to defend his green jacket. As good as Scottie was last year, he’s playing even better right now. His driver is a weapon, gaining 0.63 strokes more per round than he did in 2022 while maintaining his elite approach play, which is now up over 1.04 strokes per round on the field. He’s deservedly the favorite for this year’s event and should be strongly considered despite his increasingly short odds.
Charl Schwartzel
Current OWGR: 209th
Best Finish At The Masters: 1 (2011)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 10, 26, 25, MC
The surprise winner of the 2011 Masters came back to Augusta in perhaps the worst form of his career in 2022 and finished T10. It was his first made-cut of the season, making it nearly as surprising as his win a decade earlier.
Schwartzel went on to win the London LIV Golf event later that summer, money well spent, according to the Saudi government. I’m sure his team was thrilled, but I can’t tell you what team he plays for, and therein lies the rub. He’s randomly popped up here before, and perhaps he will again, but I won’t be paying to find out.
Adam Scott
Current OWGR: 38th
Best Finish At The Masters: 1 (2013)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 48, 54, 34, 18
Adam Scott finished the 2022 calendar year well, including T5 finishes in the first two events of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, but that form has been missing in 2023. He’s made the cut in each of his six 2023 starts but has finished no better than T31 at Bay Hill.
Scott has been inconsistent, sporadically losing strokes at different places each week. If he could piece it all together for four days, I think he still has it in him to finish well, but he has just one T10 here since his 2013 win, which was all the way back in 2017.
Vijay Singh
Current OWGR: n/a
Best Finish At The Masters: 1 (2000)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: MC, MC, WD, MC
Only the boomers remember, but Vijay Singh was a problem back in the late ’90s and early 2000s. We’re far removed from those days, and Singh is playing sparingly these days on the Champions Tour, so don’t expect his string on Friday exits to end this week.
Cameron Smith
Current OWGR: 5th
Best Finish At The Masters: 2 (2020 & 2022)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 3, 10, 2, 51
Cam Smith’s ascension from a short game specialist to one of the world’s premier iron players was at the heart of Smith’s meteoric rise and why he remains near the top of the odds board heading into this year’s Masters despite his limited recent reps due to joining LIV Golf after his Open Championship win last summer.
Last year’s event turned into a two-man showdown between Cam Smith and eventual champ Scottie Scheffler, with Smith posting a disappointing 74 in the final round. He has more volatility than other upper-echelon golfers, but the ceiling is just as high. With three straight T10 finishes here, he clearly knows how to navigate his way around here and should be the favorite in any “Best LIV Golfer Finish” prop markets. In terms of winning this week, the price is too short for me.
Jordan Spieth
Current OWGR: 16th
Best Finish At The Masters: 1 (2015)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: MC, 3, 46, 21
Jordan Spieth’s missed cut here last year was the first of his career, which is impressive considering he was not playing well for sizable chunks of 2019 and 2020. His form entering last year’s event was poor but improved immediately, with Spieth winning the RBC Heritage the following week at Harbour Town.
Spieth’s 2023 form is much better, with three T6 or better finishes in his past six starts. I’m encouraged by his added distance over the past two years, and he’s shown a ceiling in his strokes gained approach metrics that resemble peak Spiethian ranges from 2015-2017. He’s been too good here to only win once, with four T3 or better finishes at Augusta, not counting his 2015 win. Outside of the current Big 3, I like Spieth’s chances this year above the rest.
Scott Stallings
Current OWGR: 61st
Best Finish At The Masters: T27(2012)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: MC, T27, -, –
This is Scott Stallings’s first Masters’ appearance since 2014 and just his third lifetime invitation to the event. Apparently, he’s moved since his last trip back since his invite was originally sent to another Scott Stallings, and an incredible story that I’m sure you’ve heard about by now. If not, check it out.
Funny story aside, Scott Stallings earned his way here through an out-of-body golf run through the end of the summer, spilling into the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Unfortunately, that player has yet to show his face in 2023, with four missed cuts in seven starts.
Sepp Straka
Current OWGR: 32nd
Best Finish At The Masters: 30 (2022)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 30, -, -, –
The Georgia Bulldog made his Masters debut last season, and by all accounts, a T30 finish should be considered a success. Straka punched his 2023 ticket by nearly beating Will Zalatoris at the FedEx St. Jude in August and continued his streaky play for two more weeks, good enough for a T7 finish at the TOUR Championship in Atlanta.
Straka is rarely a bet for me just due to the streaky nature of his game. For instance, his runner-up finish at St. Jude was preceded by six straight missed cuts, losing strokes tee-to-green in all six starts. He doesn’t have a bankable skill set that’s appealing for this venue, and he’s not in the midst of one of his white-hot runs.
Adam Svensson
Current OWGR: 55th
Best Finish At The Masters: n/a
Last 4 Masters Finishes: debutant
Adam Svensson put it all together during his swing season win at the RSM Classic. He’s an intriguing deep odds play at a handful of events where driving accuracy and strong approach play are paramount, but at a place like Augusta National, I’m not sure he can hang.
I’m happy for any debutant, especially one that’s been fighting for a Tour card for years like Svensson has, but I’m not expecting much and would be happy to see a made cut.
Sahith Theegala
Current OWGR: 29th
Best Finish At The Masters: n/a
Last 4 Masters Finishes: debutant
Sahith Theegala is probably one of my favorite golfers that I never bet. He’s still just 25 years old and immensely talented, but he’s lacking consistency in his game right now. His upside is there, and he’ll flash it on the greens, on approach, and off the tee, but rarely ever at the same time. That’s not uncommon for a young golfer, so I don’t want to beat him up. He has six T6 or better finishes in his past 25 starts, but hasn’t been able to piece it all together for four rounds yet.
In time, I think Augusta could suit him well, and he’ll be someone that I’m rooting for at this year’s event, but he won’t be on my betting card.
Justin Thomas
Current OWGR: 11th
Best Finish At The Masters: 4 (2020)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 8, 21, 4, 12
Justin Thomas has been vocal about his disappointing execution during past Masters, though six straight top-22 or better performances are difficult to scoff at. But he’s not coming here for T20s, he wants the jacket. Struggling is a relative term, but you can make the case that Thomas has been struggling a bit this season. He’s a bit worse in every strokes gained metric compared to past seasons, and the disappointing recent results speak to that, as he now sits outside of the OWGR top ten for the first time since August of 2017.
The good news for JT backers is he’s not what I would call a form golfer. He can spike regardless of what he’s done lately. He skipped Match Play and Valero to get ready, and I’d be surprised if he performed poorly this week. I’ll be watching his price closely when the betting board reshuffles on Monday morning.
Harold Varner III
Current OWGR: 57th
Best Finish At The Masters: 23 (2022)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 23, -, -, –
Harold Varner III has just one top-20 finish in his seven LIV Golf starts. Again, context matters here. LIV is a 48-man, 54-hole exhibition, so it’s tough to go 1-7 on T20s under those circumstances.
Bubba Watson
Current OWGR: 215th
Best Finish At The Masters: 1 (2012 & 2014)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 39, 26, 57, 12
The two-time Masters champion has competed in just six events since last year’s Masters. SIX! He finished outside of the top 20 in both of his 2023 LIV Golf starts and went out with a whimper before leaving the Tour, so the recent form on Bubba is difficult to grasp.
What we do know is he loves this place, he’s thrived here, and his shot-making skills and ability to move the ball both ways are nearly unmatched. It hasn’t been all azaleas and green jackets, though. When he’s not winning, he’s routinely finished outside of the top-25, which feels likely given his limited recent reps.
Mike Weir
Current OWGR: n/a
Best Finish At The Masters: 1 (2003)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: MC, MC, 51, MC
Weir, the left-handed Canuck, and 2003 champion has missed ten of the last 12 cuts here. Weir’s not even landing top-10s on the Champions Tour, so it’s difficult to see a path to him making the cut this week, which is his ceiling.
Danny Willett
Current OWGR: 158th
Best Finish At The Masters: 1 (2016)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 12, MC, 25, MC
The stunning 2016 Masters champion stunned us again last season with a competitive four rounds and a T12 finish despite entering with zero form and one top-ten finish in the past calendar year. Willett’s current form is much better, with three T10s since last year’s event and five consecutive made cuts, gaining strokes on the field in all five starts.
I’m not picking him to repeat his T12 from last year, but a T40 finish that’ll likely be priced in the +250 range interests me.
Aaron Wise
Current OWGR: 45th
Best Finish At The Masters: 17th (2019)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 17, -, -, –
Aaron Wise has made this exceptionally easy on me. I was blindly betting on him every week, assured that he’ll eventually break through, and he came remarkably close on a handful of occasions last season. He was the last man off the fall’s Presidents Cup team, and he hasn’t been the same since.
He’s lost strokes on approach in seven of his ten measured events this season, including four straight in impressive fashion. He’s missed the cut in four of the past six events, so he’s broken right now. This is not the place and field to find your form.
Update: Aaron Wise has withdrawn from this year’s event. Be well, my sweet prince.
Gary Woodland
Current OWGR: 99th
Best Finish At The Masters: 24 (2011)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: MC, 40, MC, 32
Gary Woodland missed the cut here last season despite entering with exceptional form after a strong Florida swing. This season, I’m less optimistic that Woodland is going to crack the top 20 for the first time in ten career starts at Augusta.
He’s lost on the greens right now. He’s gained strokes putting once in his past 13 starts, a streak that dates back to last July’s Rocket Mortgage. His ball-striking has been serviceable, with the occasional spiked week that leads to a solid finish, but nothing bankable given his spotty history at this event.
Tiger Woods
Current OWGR: 995th
Best Finish At The Masters: 1 (1997, 2001, 2002, 2005, 2019)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 47, -, 38, 1
My body is so ready.
It’s difficult to not be encouraged by how well Tiger struck it tee-to-green at Riviera. He struggled on the greens a bit here last year, which was surprising, but I think we’ve moved past make-the-cut debates on Woods, and while I don’t think he’s a real contender this week, at least not a bettable one at his current price, I expect to see him on the weekend again, and that’s a win for the world of professional golf.
Cameron Young
Current OWGR: 14th
Best Finish At The Masters: –
Last 4 Masters Finishes: MC, – , – , –
Cameron Young is an ascending talent who’s put together nine T3 of better finishes in his past 28 starts. That’s incredibly impressive, and I’m sure he’s frustrated to not have any hardware to show for it, but it’s only a matter of time for Young.
The recent change at caddie, adding former Vijay Singh and Webb Simpson caddie Paul Tesori to the bag, helps his long and short-term outlooks, and we saw that last week when Young was dialed in and nearly took home his first title at the WGC Match Play event. That shortened Young’s number here, and rightfully so. He still needs to get his putter back in its 2022 form, but everything else is pointed up.
Will Zalatoris
Current OWGR: 8th
Best Finish At The Masters: 2 (2021)
Last 4 Masters Finishes: 6, 2, -, –
A second-place finish in your Masters’ debut is a hell of a way to make an entrance. Following it up with a T6 last year is equally impressive. After a run at nearly every event that he’s entered, including every major, Will Zalatoris finally got over the hump at last year’s FedEx St. Jude, winning his first PGA Tour title. His 2023 has been less impressive, and he’s clearly battling something right now, especially on the greens.
The Zalatoris putting zoom-ins are the stuff of nightmares, but even with the uneven backstroke and follow-through, he’s been a sneaky-good putter based on most statistical metrics. However, he’s getting progressively worse inside five feet, and it’s hard not to think it’s spilling over to other parts of his game. He’s finished T53, 73rd, and T59 in his past three starts, hemorrhaging strokes with the putter but also barely gaining strokes tee-to-green. To me, the tee-to-green stuff is more alarming, and it’s not what I want to see from Zalatoris before considering him for another T10 finish at Augusta.