2023 Valspar Championship - DraftKings Picks

Strategy

With four elite players at the top of the board – Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Sam Burns, and Matt Fitzpatrick – and not much depth below, if you are mass multi-entering this is a week where I believe you should play each one of them. If playing single entry or 3-max, Thomas and Spieth are my favorites due to their elite level of class on such a tough course as Innisbrook. They are also two of the best players in windy conditions in the world.

That brings me to a major topic of conversation – the wind. As of early Wednesday evening, it appears the PM/AM wave has about a 60/40 advantage. With Thomas, Spieth, and Burns playing in a group together on Thursday morning, if you decide to wave-stack the afternoon golfers, Fitzpatrick, Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood, and Wyndham Clark are the best upper-end options. It’s a tricky situation, however, because the weather has made the golf fantasy/betting world look silly before when we play meteorologist and proceed to get it wrong.

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There is a depth of value options in the $6-7K range (playing throughout the day on Thursday) that I will be mixing and matching with the upper tier. My favorites include Eric Cole ($7.3K), Sam Ryder ($7.1K), Mark Hubbard ($7.1K), Ben Martin ($7.4K), Matt Wallace ($6.8K), Matthew NeSmith ($7.2K) and Dylan Wu ($6.8K).

2023 Valspar Championship Narratives and Important Metrics

Unique Model Weights

SG: Difficult Courses
SG: Winds 15+ mph
SG: Less Than Driver Courses

Any type of golfer can win and have success here at Innisbrook. There have been long-hitters, shorter hitters, scramblers, and shot-makers all win here. One thing for sure is that this course has been the home for premiere ball-strikers. From past winners, Paul Casey and Charl Schwartzel to course horses like Justin Thomas and Sam Burns, each is known for being strong with their irons.

Every single winner going back to 2015 has averaged at least +0.25 strokes on approach in the 16 rounds leading up to their win. With SG: Approach being so crucial this week, I am looking for players in good recent form, especially from 175+ yards. On this note, back-to-back winner, Sam Burns, does not fit the ball this week as he has lost 0.61 strokes on approach in his last 16 rounds.

With this being a course that favors “shot-shapers” due to all of the doglegs, and those that can work the ball both ways, players like Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth fit the course well and should continue to have success here.

In tough scoring conditions such as here at Innisbrook, players must take advantage of the four par-5s. Even though they are among the tougher par-5s on Tour they present a much better chance to score compared to the par-3s and par-4s, where they will simply be trying to survive with pars. And there has been a strong correlation between par-5 scoring and success at this event in past years.

With Driving Distance not being a factor this week, the ability to find fairways and position yourself in the numerous dogleg fairways will be crucial this week. With this in mind, Fairways Gained and Good Drive % will be important stats to analyze. And with so many greens being missed, scrambling for par will matter as well.

As mentioned above, it appears that the wind will play a huge role in the outcome. (The model this week has the most accurate wind rankings for players that you will find anywhere.) It’s an ever-changing situation, but as of now, it appears that the PM/AM wave has a slight to moderate edge. But winds are forecast to gust to well over 20 mph for every day of this event. I will most likely be waiting until Wednesday night when the forecast becomes firmer before even starting to build lineups. This is definitely a week for patience and perhaps a late Wednesday night of lineup construction.

In conclusion, this will be a stern test of golf for all involved. Players who can exhibit patience, who have a track record of playing well in the wind, who can score on the par 5s, who can play boring golf, and simply grind out pars will have an advantage. Players like Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Justin Rose and Tommy Fleetwood stand out from this perspective.

Most Important Stats For Success at the Valspar Championship

*In order of importance

SG: APP
SG: Wind
Fairways Gained
Bogey Avoidance
Scrambling
Good Drive%
Par 5 Scoring
SG: Putting (Poa Trivialis/Overall)
Proximity 175+ yards
Birdie or Better%
SG: Total on Tough Scoring Courses

Weather Forecast – Palm Harbor, Florida

The Valspar Championship – DraftKings Picks

Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options. In essence, the players you see below make up the majority of my player pool for this event.