2023 Valspar Championship – Betting Preview

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After the PLAYERS Championship and yet another Scottie Scheffler victory, the Florida Swing concludes with the Valspar Championship. While Innisbrook has four courses available to golfers, the Copperhead course is the one that has hosted this tournament since its inception on Tour in 2000.

Located just outside of Tampa in Palm Harbor, Florida, Innisbrook is one of the most underrated courses on the PGA Tour and encompasses one of the most complete tests of golf that players will face all year. Featuring narrow pine tree-lined fairways and rolling terrain, combined with the surrounding lakes, proper positioning off the tee is paramount. Players will be challenged as they navigate numerous tight doglegs, elevation changes, 74 well-positioned bunkers, six holes with water danger, rough approaching four inches, and difficult pin positions.

Even though the course played the easiest it ever has in last year’s event at 0.77 strokes under par, it still ranks as the ninth most challenging annual course on Tour over the last five years. It definitely fits the eye of back-to-back champion Sam Burns as he returns to Palm Harbor looking to become the first player to win the same event in three consecutive years since Steve Stricker at the John Deere Classic from 2009-11.

The increased number of trees and elevation changes make it feel as if one is in the hill country of North Carolina. As course architect, Larry Packard, said himself back in 2012, “When you play Copperhead you don’t even feel like you are in Florida. When you stand on the first hole and look down the fairway you are on an elevated tee and looking down the fairway lined with pine trees on both sides. It feels more like the Carolinas than Florida.

The makeup of the par-71 course is also far from traditional as there are five par-3s along with four par-5s. The course culminates at the infamous “Snake Pit” with two difficult par-4s sandwiched between the challenging par-3 17th.

Similar to TPC Sawgrass, positional golf is once again the name of the game as Innisbrook mitigates almost any advantage that bombers have off the tee. But this is not your typical “short” course. With more than 70% of approach shots coming from over 175 yards, players will need to be sharp with their long-distance approach game.

The Field

Sitting between two straight elevated events and next week’s WGC Dell Match Play, the Valspar Championship is simply in an undesirable spot on the schedule for many players. That being said, the field is stronger than the Honda Classic was a few weeks ago and is only a short drive away to Florida’s western coast. The 144-player field includes five of the top-20 ranked players in the world including Justin Thomas, Matt Fitzpatrick, Sam Burns, Jordan Spieth, and Keegan Bradley. In total, 16 of the top-70 players will be in attendance.

2023 Valspar Championship Betting Narratives and Strategies

Unique Model Weights

  • SG: Difficult Courses
  • SG: Winds 15+ mph
  • SG: Less Than Driver Courses

Any type of golfer can win and have success here at Innisbrook. There have been long-hitters, shorter hitters, scramblers, and shot-makers all win here. One thing for sure is that this course has been the home for premiere ball-strikers. From past winners Paul Casey and Charl Schwartzel to course horses like Justin Thomas and Sam Burns, each is known for being strong with their irons.

Every single winner going back to 2015 has averaged at least +0.25 strokes on approach in the 16 rounds leading up to their win. With SG: Approach being so crucial this week, I am looking for players in good recent form, especially from 175+ yards. On this note, back-to-back winner, Sam Burns, does not fit the ball this week as he has lost 0.61 strokes on approach in his last 16 rounds.

With this being a course that favors “shot-shapers” due to all of the doglegs, and those that can work the ball both ways, players like Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth fit the course well and should continue to have success here.

In tough scoring conditions such as here at Innisbrook, players must take advantage of the four par-5s. Even though they are among the tougher par-5s on Tour they present a much better chance to score compared to the par-3s and par-4s, where they will simply be trying to survive with pars. And there has been a strong correlation between par-5 scoring and success at this event in past years.

With Driving Distance not being a factor this week, the ability to find fairways and position yourself in the numerous dogleg fairways will be crucial this week. With this in mind, Fairways Gained and Good Drive % will be important stats to analyze. And with so many greens being missed, scrambling for par will matter as well.

It appears that the wind will play a huge role in the outcome. (The model this week has the most accurate wind rankings for players that you will find anywhere.) It’s an ever-changing situation, but as of now, it appears that the PM/AM wave has a slight to moderate edge. But winds are forecast to gust to well over 20 mph for every day of this event. With Keegan Bradley withdrawing, my betting card still has tons of room left. I will most likely be waiting until Wednesday night when the forecast becomes firmer before adding plays, or possibly even wait for live betting opportunities. This is definitely a week to be patient and not rush to throw bets out there.

In conclusion, this will be a stern test of golf for all involved. Players who can exhibit patience, who have a track record of playing well in the wind, who can score on the par 5s, who can play boring golf, and simply grind out pars will have an advantage. Players like Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Justin Rose and Tommy Fleetwood stand out from this perspective.

Most Important Stats For Success at the Valspar Championship

*In order of importance

  • SG: APP
  • SG: Wind
  • Fairways Gained
  • Bogey Avoidance
  • Scrambling
  • Good Drive%
  • Par 5 Scoring
  • SG: Putting (Poa Trivialis/Overall)
  • Proximity 175+ yards
  • Birdie or Better%
  • SG: Total on Tough Scoring Courses

Weather Forecast – Palm Harbor, Florida

The Valspar Championship Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.

Outright Betting Selections

*Lines accurate at the time of publication.

Tommy Fleetwood +2500

Still waiting for his first PGA Tour victory in the United States, Fleetwood is in a prime position to check that box this week. Not only does he tee off in what is currently the more favorable PM/AM wave but he is the 4th best “wind” player in the field according to my unique wind rankings. He also plays his best in tougher scoring conditions which fit Innisbrook perfectly. He is third in my approach model and 4th in my Core 4 this week. He has actually gained on approach in nine straight events. Fleetwood finished 16th here last year and is coming off a great ball-striking week at the PLAYERS.

(1.09u) BetMGM

Justin Suh +4000 (currently +3500)

Suh is playing better over the last 12 rounds than anyone else in this field. After finishing 5th in the Honda, he placed 24th in the Arnold Palmer and 6th in the PLAYERS in consecutive elevated events amidst the strongest competition in the world. His game is showing no weaknesses at the moment. In the two key categories for the week, he is 9th in approach and 15th in putting over his last 24 rounds. In a weaker field this week, he is primed for his first PGA victory.

(0.75u) BetMGM

Davis Riley +4500 (currently +4000)

One of the strongest iron players in the field, Riley finished 2nd in his first appearance at Innisbrook last year losing in a playoff to Sam Burns. Even with a missed cut last week, his game has been rounding back into form with a 29th place finish at the Honda and an 8th at the Arnold Palmer.

(0.66u) BetRivers

Ben Griffin +5000

Griffin has thrived on “less than driver” courses and he gets to play another one this week at Innisbrook. He has been consistently good almost every single week with only one missed cut in his last 13 starts. During that stretch, he has ten top-35 finishes which is amazing considering he is a Tour rookie. His tee-to-green game is top-10 in the field and he loves these southern courses.

(0.52u) BetRivers

Eric Cole +12500 (currently +10000)

Cole announced his arrival on the PGA Tour with his 2nd place finish in the Honda where he lost in a playoff to Chris Kirk. After missing the cut at Bay Hill he bounced right back with a 27th at the PLAYERS. He has been so steady this year with six recent top 40 finishes. He finished 8th overall in my final model this week, and he has proven to be one of the best iron players in this field who can get very hot with the putter. Considering he tees off in the better wind wave, this is great value at anything around this number.

(0.48u) BetRivers

Finishing Position Picks

Top 20

Top 30 – BetRivers

  • Wyndham Clark -110 (1.1u)  
  • Justin Suh +100 (1u)

Top 40 – FanDuel

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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images