My approach to golf betting and daily fantasy is deeply rooted in statistical modeling. It’s not the only way to go about handicapping a golf tournament, but I think it’s the best way. It helps me eliminate biases and identify golfers purely based on whether they are in good form and if their game syncs up with the course they are about to play.
In this article, I will put together a weighted statistical model specific to the course and tournament. The statistics are chosen and weighted based on historical data from previous tournaments. In addition to course-specific data, I will also look at recent form and any other potentially relevant angle. The model accounts for the last 50 measured rounds, with the more recent rounds receiving increasingly more weight.
Key Stats Considered
The statistical model will always include the main four strokes gained statistics of off-the-tee, approach, around the green, and putting. It’s safe to assume, even if those stats aren’t elaborated on in this section that they are baked into each player’s ranking when all is said and done. The model will also include secondary stats that are specific to success on the current week’s course. Because these secondary stats change week-to-week, they will make up the bulk of those delved into in this article. This will include stats such as driving distance, driving accuracy, good drives, proximity from a certain yardage, eagle rate, birdie rate, putting on a particular grass type, and specific course types like “short par 70s” or “difficult courses over 7400 yards”.
SG: Approach
Copperhead is one of the only courses on tour that doesn’t boast approach as the top strokes gained stat historically. That award goes to putting. Even still, approach needs to be heavily weighted as it’s still a large part of the total strokes gained metric.
| 1. Gary Woodland |
| 2. Wyndham Clark |
| 3. Russell Knox |
| 4. Eric Cole |
| 5. James Hahn |
| 6. Justin Suh |
| 7. Kevin Roy |
| 8. Ben Martin |
| 9. Nick Hardy |
| 10. Robby Shelton |
Opportunities Gained
Opportunities gained measures the number of times a golfer hits a green in regulation inside of 15 feet or hits a green in under regulation. . By incorporating Opps gained, we can give a boost to players who are not only hitting greens, but hitting it close.
| 1. Wyndham Clark |
| 2. Davis Riley |
| 3. Luke List |
| 4. Jhonattan Vegas |
| 5. Jordan Spieth |
| 6. David Lipsky |
| 7. JT Poston |
| 8. Kevin Roy |
| 9. Justin Thomas |
| 10. Gary Woodland |
Par 5 Scoring
At first glance it looks like this course may only have three Par 5s, but that’s not the case. There is actually an extra Par 3 and still four Par 5s, meaning we still want to put an emphasis on guys that can have birdie and eagle chances the Par 5 holes.
| 1. Garrick Higgo |
| 2. Justin Rose |
| 3. Tommy Fleetwood |
| 4. Wyndham Clark |
| 5. Patton Kizzire |
| 6. Justin Thomas |
| 7. Jhonattan Vegas |
| 8. JT Poston |
| 9. Gary Woodland |
| 10. Nate Lashley |
Proximity: 175-200 yards
Of all the yardages this week, the 175-200 yard range is the one that pops up more than average. Historically, 24% of the shots at Copperhead come from this bucket. The average for all tour courses is 17%
| 1. Brice Garnett |
| 2. Nate Lashley |
| 3. Jonathan Byrd |
| 4. Keegan Bradley |
| 5. Adam Hadwin |
| 6. Robby Shelton |
| 7. Lucas Glover |
| 8. Justin Rose |
| 9. Brent Grant |
| 10. Martin Laird |
200+ Proximity
Copperhead will test the long iron game a bunch this week. There are a lot of layups off the tee that will create long shots into Par 4s, couple that with four Par 5s and four Par 3s of 200+. There will be a lot of long irons pulled this week.
| 1. Gary Woodland |
| 2. Will Gordon |
| 3. Justin Suh |
| 4. Matthew NeSmith |
| 5. Nick Hardy |
| 6. Kevin Roy |
| 7. Keegan Bradley |
| 8. Mathias Schmid |
| 9. Brandon Matthews |
| 10. Pierson Coody |
Good Drives Gained
Copperhead requires accuracy off the tee. Good drives gained is my favorite stat to measure driving accuracy because there is an element to strategy in play. Good drives measures fairways or fringe hit with a green in regulation to follow. Especially on a course like Copperhead with angles and tight fairways, it’s sometimes more advantageous to be in the fringe on the left side of the hole than on the fairway on the right side of the hole. This stat quantifies that the best.
| 1. Tyler Duncan |
| 2. Aaron Rai |
| 3. Nate Lashley |
| 4. Justin Suh |
| 5. Dylan Wu |
| 6. Will Gordon |
| 7. Gary Woodland |
| 8. Justin Rose |
| 9. Adam Hadwin |
| 10. Ryan Armour |
Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 yards
Depending on the tee locations, all five Par 3 holes could fall into this bucket. Hitting the green on long par 3s is a skill not all guys on tour can flash consistently.
| 1. Patrick Rodgers |
| 2. Doc Redman |
| 3. Patton Kizzire |
| 4. Ben Martin |
| 5. Nick Hardy |
| 6. Stephan Jaeger |
| 7. KH Lee |
| 8. David Lipsky |
| 9. James Hahn |
| 10. Luke Donald |
Putting Outside 10 Feet
About 37% of birdie putts at Copperhead come from outside 10 feet. At each distance (10-15, 15-20, 20-25, 25+) the percentage of birdie putts hit outside 10 feet is higher than tour average. I’m not weighting this a ton, but it can definitely break ties or give gives that really pop in this skill to get a boost.
| 1. Ben Taylor |
| 2. Maverick McNealy |
| 3. Justin Lower |
| 4. Harry Hall |
| 5. Luke Donald |
| 6. Mathias Schmid |
| 7. Taylor Montgomery |
| 8. Sam Ryder |
| 9. Sam Burns |
| 10. Rory Sabbatini |
Current Form
The golfers playing the best at the moment. Though golf is filled with variance and the previous weeks winner is more likely to miss the cut than win again, being in the groove with your swing is a real thing in golf.
| 1. Justin Suh |
| 2. Justin Rose |
| 3. Ben Martin |
| 4. Akshay Bhatia |
| 5. Nate Lashley |
| 6. Tyler Duncan |
| 7. Ben Griffin |
| 8. Jordan Spieth |
| 9. Eric Cole |
| 10. Ben An |
Course Form
The players who’ve gained the most strokes at Copperhead over the years.
| 1. Sam Burns |
| 2. Justin Rose |
| 3. Jonathan Byrd |
| 4. Jordan Spieth |
| 5. Luke Donald |
| 6. Justin Thomas |
| 7. Jason Dufner |
| 8. Bill Haas |
| 9. Matthew NeSmith |
| 10. Davis Riley |
Peaking and Fading
One of the flaws that I often come across in modeling is focusing on a fixed range of time or rounds and taking a wider view to determining if a player is peaking or fading leading up to an event. For instance, a player’s high rating in a model that only focuses on the last 50 rounds could be a result of playing well four months ago. In this section, I will lay out the players who have improved or faded statistically over the course of their last 50 rounds.
| Peaking |
| 1. Justin Suh |
| 2. Eric Cole |
| 3. Stephan Jaeger |
| 4. Samuel Stevens |
| 5. Brandon Wu |
| Fading |
| 1. Nick Hardy |
| 2. Alex Smalley |
| 3. Trey Mullinax |
| 4. Mark Hubbard |
| 5. David Lipsky |
Stat Model Final Rankings
| 1. Justin Rose – Rose rates out better than I’ve seen from a number one ranking in a while. That’s because his course fit, current form, and course form are all fifth or better. He’s also top 25 in putting outside of 10 feet. In this weakened field, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rose make a run at another win. |
| 2. Keegan Bradley – Keegan is top 10 in course fit from all round ranges and rates out 4th and 6th from the 175-200 and 200+ ranges respectively. He’s top 20 in course form and top 30 in overall form. |
| 3. Nate Lashley – Lashley is 2nd in the key proximity range of 175-200, 2nd in good drives, and top 20 from the par 3 range and in Par 5 scoring. |
| 4. Justin Suh – A boy named Suh looks to be all set for success at Copperhead. He rates out fourth in course fit, and first in overall form. He’s rated 6th or better in approach, 200+ proximity, good drives. The only issue is he’s a first timer |
| 5. Gary Woodland – 1st in approach, 1st in 200+ proximity, 10th in opps gained, 7th in good drives, 9th in Par 5 scoring, and 16th in course form |
| 6. Justin Thomas |
| 7. Kevin Roy |
| 8. Brandon Wu |
| 9. Wyndham Clark – 1st in opportunities gained, 2nd in approach, and 5th in Par 5 scoring. Clark has been playing relatively well, too. His only knock is he hasn’t had much success at this tournament, but he’s playing really well at the moment and fits the course well. |
| 10. Jhonattan Vegas – Fits Copperhead immaculately. He doesn’t rate out worse than 45th in any of the key stat categories. He is 14th or better in 200+ proximity, opportunities gained, and Par 5 scoring. |
| 11. Davis Riley |
| 12. Tommy Fleetwood |
| 13. Stephan Jaeger – Always someone that I have interest in when long par 3s are in the equation. He rates out 6th in Par 3s 200-225 yards. Also is 24th in good drives and 19th in current form. |
| 14. Ben Martin – Martin rates out third in current form and is also 4th in approach and 7th from the long Par 3 range. He could potentially be a sleeper candidate for DraftKings or first round leader. |
| 15. Chesson Hadley – He makes a lot of sense as a first round leader or showdown play given some of the stats he’s popping in. He’s 11th on long par 3s and 22nd on Par 5s. In addition we all know he’s an excellent putter. If he can have an above average round on approach, I’m confident he can get the putter rolling for a spike round. |
| 16. Joseph Bramlett |
| 17. Taylor Moore |
| 18. Jordan Spieth – Spieth is 10th in current form and 4th in course history. He also rates out 21st in short term form. He also can get hot and starting holing longer putts which something many that have had success at this tournament has done. |
| 19. Will Gordon |
| 20. Dylan Wu |
| 21. Eric Cole – 9th in short term course fit and 11th in overall form, Cole also pops in the long putting category. It may be recency bias, but Cole has been playing well enough to garner attention as a contender once again. |
| 22. Nick Hardy |
| 23. Adam Hadwin – 5th in 175-200+ and 9th in Good Drives gained, Hadwin rates out top 20 in course fit and 12th in course form. |
| 24. Nick Taylor |
| 25. Luke List |
| 26. Akshay Bhatia – Bhatia is peaking at the right time. He rates out 13th in short term course fit and 4th in overall form. This is the type of field he could have a chance at competing in. |
| 27. Matt Wallace |
| 28. Samuel Stevens |
| 29. James Hahn |
| 30. Aaron Rai – |
| 31. Russell Knox |
| 32. Sam Ryder – The only guy who rates out top ten in the putting metric and also inside the top 50 in the overall model ranking. Ryder is someone who seems to be fading, but it’s easy to back him because we’ve seen him at the top of the leaderboard recently. |
| 33. David Lingmerth |
| 34. John VanderLean |
| 35. Augusto Nunez |
| 36. Garrick Higgo – 1st in Par 5 scoring and top 25 in the long par 3 range and good drives. He’s a first timer, but his course fit is good enough that I think he can make some noise |
| 37. Tyler Duncan |
| 38. Webb Simpson |
| 39. Ryan Moore |
| 40. Mark Hubbard |
| 41. Chris Stroud |
| 42. Michael Kim |
| 43. Robbie Shelton |
| 44. Kyle Westmoreland |
| 45. Charley Hoffman |
| 46. JT Poston |
| 47. Austin Cook |
| 48. Matt Fitzpatrick – Doesn’t hit the course particularly well, but he obviously can hang given he’s 14th in strokes gained at Copperhead. I wouldn’t be surprised if he runs away with this tournament, but it’s tough to back him given his recent form. |
| 49. Erik Barnes |
| 50. Matthew NeSmith – NeSmith is your classic course history vs. form debate. He’s been pretty atrocious as of late. He rates out 117th in key stats in the short term and 132 in overall form, but 8th in Valspar average strokes gained per round. |