The PGA Tour moves to the second event of the “Florida Swing” with this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational at the Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida. Having hosted this event since 1979, it is one of the most respected courses in the Sunshine State. “Arnie’s Tournament” is a limited-field, invitation-only event set at 120 golfers with the top 65 and ties making it through the 36-hole cut line.
Bay Hill is a classical Florida-style golf course characterized by its length, Bermuda grass, thick rough, firm, and fast greens, and numerous bunkers and water hazards. With windy conditions playing a factor, four of the last five winners have finished with a score of 12-under or worse. Similar to the last two events at Riviera and PGA National, par is an acceptable score on a majority of holes
“Tough”, “can’t fake it”, “mentally challenging” and “must commit to shots” are all phrases players themselves have used to describe Bay Hill. Course knowledge, total driving skills, long-iron accuracy, high ball flight into firm greens, and being able to scramble in thicker rough are all important qualities for success here. Justin Rose summed it up best by saying, “There’s really no way to fake it around Bay Hill. The rough’s pretty thick. Generally, the greens are quite firm which requires pretty pinpoint iron shots. There’s enough trouble out there that mentally it’s a challenge. You have to really commit to shots.”
Last year, the scoring average was 1.89 strokes over par with only 10 players finishing the tournament under par. Outside of the majors, this is one of the sternest tests of golf, and this year’s “elevated” field gives it a definite “major” type feel.
The Field
We are only two months into the calendar year and this is already the third elite full-field event. The upper echelon is led by world No. 1 John Rahm, who already has three wins in only six PGA Tour starts this season. World No. 2 Scottie Scheffler, who just won in Phoenix a couple of weeks ago, returns as the defending champion along with third-ranked, Rory McIlroy, who brings with him perhaps the best course history of anyone at Bay Hill with seven top-13s in his eight career starts here.
Overall, 44 of the top 50 in the Official World Golf Ranking will be teeing it up at Bay Hill which is the most at any event since last year’s Open Championship. This includes the entire top 30 in the FedExCup rankings and every single Tour winner so far this season.
2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Narratives and Strategies
Unique Model Weights
- SG: Strong Field/Difficult Courses
- SG: Windy Conditions 15+ mph
- SG: Florida
Looking at the “Winning Trends” section above for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, a few things immediately stand out when searching for a winner for outright bets. Previous success and experience here at Bay Hill matter. Multiple trends speak to that fact. Jordan Spieth remarked he had little chance for success his first time here simply because he had no idea where he could miss on his approach shots and not be penalized. 23 of the past 26 winners were top-40 ranked players in the world. Class matters here. Also, 25 of the past 26 winners had won a PGA Tour event before their win here. Thus, win equity is another important quality. Obviously, recent form always matters. These trends can also be used for targeting players for DFS or other types of bets.
In looking at the data and player quotes, Par-5 scoring is weighted much more heavily for me this week. Those four holes have a birdie or better average of 38%. I also want players who have some level of comfort on Florida-style courses with Bermuda greens. That does not mean one has to be a great putter to play well here. Players like Corey Conners and Luke List have had good recent finishes here despite shaky putters.
Almost every player that has finished in the top five over the years has been tremendous tee-to-green. Another angle to attack is with international players who are more comfortable on firm and fast courses and in conditions that are more exposed to the elements. Other than Tiger Woods and Matt Every, recent winners have been non-American golfers. Bay Hill is similar in many ways to certain courses in the Middle East that are used on the DP World Tour. Also, the penal and “breezy” nature of Bay Hill resembles many European and Australian-style courses.
I will also be targeting players highly rated in Total Driving, which is a combination of Fairways Gained and Driving Distance. With this course being so difficult, past success on other “Major-style” courses is also included in the model this week.
Long-iron play from 200+ yards will be crucial, especially with such a high percentage of approaches from that range. Related to that is par-3 scoring, with each of the par-3s is in the 200-230 yard range. Every winner at this event over the past seven years has been ranked fourth or better in par-3 scoring for the week. That is an amazing stat nugget and emphasizes the importance of using quality par-3 players from that yardage range.
Finally, it appears that weather, in the form of windy conditions could have a huge impact on this tournament. Wind speeds should be monitored throughout the day on Wednesday, but it appears the PM/AM wave currently has a slight-to-moderate advantage.
Weather Forecast – Orlando, Florida
Most Important Stats For Success at the Arnold Palmer Invitational
*In order of importance
- SG: APP/Proximity 200+ yds
- Total Driving
- Par 5 Scoring
- SG: Putting (Bermuda)
- BoB%
- SG: ARG/Scrambling
- Bogey/Dbl Bogey Avoidance
- Par 4 Scoring
- Course History
- SG History on Difficult Courses with Strong Fields
The Arnold Palmer Invitational Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Rory McIlroy +1000 (currently +900)
(0.88u) FanDuel
Will Zalatoris +3000 (currently +2200)
(0.72u) DraftKings
Sungjae Im +4100 (currently +3600)
(0.68u) DraftKings
Cameron Young +5500 (currently +4000)
(0.60u) BetRivers
Hideki Matsuyama +7000 (currently +5500)
(0.30u) BetRivers
Finishing Position Picks
Top 10
- Rory McIlroy +105 (1.2u) – DraftKings
- Scottie Scheffler +120 (1u) – BetRivers
Top 20
- Xander Schauffele +100 (1.2u) – FanDuel
- Max Homa +105 (1.1u) – FanDuel
- Will Zalatoris +105 (1.2u) – DraftKings
- Sungjae Im +140 (1u) – DraftKings
- Viktor Hovland +155 (1u) – FanDuel
Top 30 – BetRivers
- Tyrrell Hatton -125 (1.2u)
- Cameron Young -120 (1.2u)
- Hideki Matsuyama +120 (1u)
Top 40 – FanDuel
- Keegan Bradley -110 (1.2u)
- Tommy Fleetwood -110 (1.2u)
- Aaron Wise +125 (1u)
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Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images