Matthew NeSmith tied the Copperhead course record by shooting a 10-under 61 to take a two-shot lead over Adam Hadwin heading into the weekend of the Valspar Championship. In the process, he also set the 36-hole tournament record of 14-under par. With the top of the leaderboard full of players who teed off in the morning wave on Friday, NeSmith overtook them all with the best round of his career. He was on fire with his irons and putter, gaining 4.8 strokes on approach and another 3.3 on the greens. Behind NeSmith and Hadwin at 11-under are Sam Burns and Scott Stallings. Justin Thomas is four shots back at 10-under. With afternoon gusts that never really materialized and overall perfect scoring conditions over the last two days, it remains to be seen if the course will firm up enough to make scoring more of a challenge.
Weather Forecast
Relevant Post-Round 2 Player Quotes
*Quotes courtesy of ASAP Sports Transcriptions
Justin Thomas: I’ve loved it ever since playing the Junior tournaments here. And I’ve just, yeah, it’s a place that I just, I feel like I can get my way around really well and I feel like every time I tee it up I can go shoot 7-, 8-, 9-under, although it can play pretty difficult. But at the same time, if you’re not playing well and not driving it well, it’s a tough golf course. It’s very similar to like Sawgrass or Riviera to me, where you put the ball in play or at least you put it on the right side of the holes off the tees I feel like can you do some damage. I feel like I’ve been trending in the right direction. I said it, I’ve been saying it. I feel like I’m really close to playing some good golf and getting on a run and winning some tournaments.
Scott Stallings: You have to be a good player through the middle of the bag. A lot of 175-, 190-, 200-yard shots. And I’ve done well in my career in that area and did a big, we had a real big practice session on Tuesday afternoon, kind of just focusing on that and some spots where I hadn’t been as sharp as I have been throughout my career and trying to focus on a little bit of the game management side of understanding of club selection, and just trying to be a little bit more aware instead of constantly, oh, this is a good number. Let’s figure it out. You put yourself in a wrong spot here, it adds up quickly.
Current Betting Favorites
- Justin Thomas +400
- Sam Burns +450
- Adam Hadwin +500
- Matthew NeSmith +600
- Xander Schauffele +1600
- Best Current Outright Value: Tyrrell Hatton +6000 MGM
Tyrrell Hatton is currently 6-under par and has been on fire with irons. He gained 3.2 shots on approach on Friday and has gained 5.5 ball-striking over two rounds. With his typically strong putting and short game letting him down thus far, he has strong potential for improvement in those areas. If he can continue to stripe his irons as he has, a steady rise up the leaderboard is very possible.
Round 3 Betting Selections
*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.
PARLAY +151 — Justin Thomas -185 Over Davis Riley & Tyrrell Hatton -160 Over Joseph Bramlett
Many of the matchups on Saturday are mismatches in talent, which makes parlays one of the best ways to find value. Both Justin Thomas and Tyrrell Hatton have major talent advantages over their counterparts. While Davis Riley and Joseph Bramlett have been impressive ball-striking thus far, Thomas and Hatton have been even better. With greens firming somewhat, along with the pressure that the weekend brings, siding with two world-class players over young inexperienced opponents at odds of +151 is the best play.
Risk: 1 Unit on FanDuel.
Round 3 DraftKings DFS Showdown Selections
*Weather and tee time impacts not included in model.
Tee Times can be found here.
Core Plays
- Justin Thomas, $10,600
- Gary Woodland, $8,100
- Cameron Tringale, $7,700
Top-Tier Plays
- Xander Schauffele, $9,700
- Collin Morikawa, $10,000
- Louis Oosthuizen, $9,300
- Tyrrell Hatton, $9,100
Mid-Tier Plays
- Webb Simpson, $8,500
- Matt Fitzpatrick, $8,800
- Alex Noren, $8,300
Value Plays
- Kevin Streelman, $7,600
- Mito Pereira, $7,400
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout, $7,400
- Joel Dahmen, $7,500
- Harold Varner, $7,800
- Bernd Wiesberger, $7,200
- Matthew NeSmith, $6,900
- Davis Riley, $6,500
- C.T. Pan, $7,000
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