2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am – Betting Preview

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The PGA Tour heads north up the Pacific Coast to the Monterey Bay Peninsula and features the iconic Pebble Beach course. Similar to The American Express a couple of weeks ago, golfers have to deal with another Pro-Am and multiple courses. The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is a full-field event spread out on three different properties to allow for a 156-player field including amateurs. Players will be paired with celebrities, current and former athletes, and high-level business executives.

Golfers will rotate through Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill Golf Course and Monterey Peninsula Country Club (Shore Course), with a Saturday cut-line and the top-60 and ties finishing at Pebble Beach on Sunday. With all three courses exposed along the Pacific coast, weather can definitely change quickly here and influence the outcome of this tournament. The three courses share other similarities as well. Each is among the shortest courses on Tour at under 7,050 yards. Each has smaller than average greens with Pebble Beach’s coming in at the most minuscule on Tour at an average of only 3,500 square feet. And finally, each course has the same 2″ or less rough length along with Poa annua greens.

But Pebble Beach is the crown jewel course of this tournament. The way the jagged coastline meets the cliffs is beyond words. It truly is the greatest meeting of land and sea in American golf. Said Jack Nicklaus, “If I had only one more round to play, I would choose to play at Pebble Beach. I loved this course from the first time I saw it. It’s possibly the best in the world.”

Having hosted this event since 1947, past winners are a historical “who’s who” of golf including Ben Hogan, Byron Nelson, Billy Casper, Ken Venturi, Johnny Miller, Jack Nicklaus, Tom Watson, Davis Love III, Vijay Singh, and Tiger Woods.

A second-shot course if there ever was one, players will be provided with a challenging test of patience, pitching wedges, and Poa putting. For those that played last week at Torrey Pines, the emphasis shifts from distance and long-iron play to short-iron precision on equally difficult greens. Since 2010, winning scores have averaged 18-under par with last year’s champion, Tom Hoge, finishing at 19-under. The area has received over 20″ of rain to date which will allow for much softer greens and better scoring conditions.

Similar to The American Express, with the amateurs in mind, despite the tiny greens, it is a resort-style setup with the greens running slow and the rough non-penal. Any Strokes Gained data comes only from the two rounds played at Pebble Beach each year and will form a majority of any statistical data this week.

The Field

Between the more lucrative Saudi International event overseas, its place on the schedule before two elevated events, and Tour golfers not wanting any part of six-hour rounds with amateurs, most high-ranked players skip this event. This year is no different, which, once again, means a very weak field at Pebble Beach. Only five of the top-30 players and 15 of the top-75 will be in attendance.

Matt Fitzpatrick, Viktor Hovland, and Jordan Spieth are the only players in the field inside of the top-15 in the OWGR. Along with defending champion Tom Hoge, other notables in the field include Seamus Power, Kevin Kisner, Scott Stallings, Maverick McNealy, Andrew Putnam, Keith Mitchell, and Justin Rose.

*Some VERY sticky event history “winning trends” for the #ATTProAm at Pebble Beach

*Only 8 players in the field fit all seven trends… Jordan Spieth Tom Hoge Andrew Putnam Keith Mitchell Troy Merritt Joel Dahmen Brendon Todd Nate Lashley

2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Narratives and Strategies

Unique Model Weights

  • SG: Short Courses
  • SG: West Coast
  • SG: Coastal Courses

With each of the three courses in this week’s rotation being so short, distance off the tee will not be an advantage this week. Many players will lay up to specific target zones with long irons and 3-woods. Because fairways are so wide and the rough is cut short, accuracy off the tee means little as well. Add in the fact that players are clubbing down, and the result is driving accuracy above 72%. There are fairway bunkers that litter the course along with the impending ocean beyond the cliffs, but thanks to all of the forced layups these danger areas are mostly avoided. I am strongly downgrading Off the Tee (OTT) performance in my model for this event.

This makes Good Drive % and Strokes Gained Approach even more important. In fact, this week will be one of the highest weights I place all year on SG: Approach. Also, with the greens smaller than average on two of the courses, and downright tiny at Pebble Beach, golfers good at scrambling and saving par will also be vital to success. Finally, don’t forget to target players good at putting on Poa greens, and who outperform their non-Poa baseline when putting on Poa grass.

The above trends section for this week tells you that experience in this event really matters. Golfers who have played at Pebble multiple times and who have had success here usually follow that up with positive performances. Since 2010, players with 7, 4, 16, 6, 6, 7, 8, 4, 3, 21, and 5 previous appearances in this event have been victorious. Also, players who have past win equity and who are Tour veterans have also had higher finishes here.

For betting purposes, there is a clear upper-tier of three players in Jordan Spieth, Matt Fitzpatrick and Viktor Hovland. They are followed by a second tier of Tom Hoge, Seamus Power, and Maverick McNealy. While favorites have won this event numerous times they have come much more often from the second tier between +2200 to +2800. And with the “big three” on top lacking any value, I have cast my lot with both defending champion, Tom Hoge (+2500) and Seamus Power (+2800).

With this being such an odd and unpredictable event thanks to three different courses, windy conditions, a weak field, and a Pro-Am format, I have built the rest of my card to reflect players with longer odds who fit many of the winning trends for the week. To narrow it down even further, my “Core 4” most important metrics for the week include submodels for SG: Approach, SG: Putting, Scoring, and a combination of Pebble Beach course history along with my unique splits for the week – namely performance on short, coastal and western courses.

Weather Forecast – Pebble Beach, California

Most Important Stats For Success at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

*In order of importance

  • SG: APP
  • SG: Putting (Poa)
  • Par 4 350-450 yds
  • Proximity 75-150 yds
  • SG: ARG/Scrambling
  • Good Drive %
  • Event Course History
  • Par 5 Scoring
  • BoB%
  • Bogey Avoidance

The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.

Outright Betting Selections

*Lines accurate at the time of publication.

Tom Hoge +2500

The defending champion enters Pebble Beach week in the best form of his career with seven top-13s in the last six months. He is the best in the field by a large margin from the vital 75-150 yard range. In fact, he might be the best short-iron player in the world. He ranks first in the field in my “Core 4” for the week, is third in SG: West Coast and is fourth in the Scoring model. In another weak field such as this, Hoge should have no trouble positioning himself for another run at the trophy come Sunday.

(0.96u) PointsBet

Seamus Power +2800 (currently +2500)

Since Power won at a similar short coastal track in Bermuda three months ago, he has followed that up with two top-5s and four top-25s overall. Last year, he was leading this event by five shots after 36 holes before finishing in ninth place. Over his last 24 rounds, he is gaining 1.33 strokes which is top-five in this field. What I love is his overall consistency which gives him a chance each and every week.

(0.85u) BetRivers

Scott Stallings +7000 (currently +6000)

It was only six months ago when Stallings was seemingly racking up a top-15 every week. Since then he has had a couple of blow-up events losing 14 strokes at the Tour Championship and four more at the CJ Cup. But there is no way he should have fallen this low in the betting odds. He has three top-14s here in his last six trips and is rated as the sixth-best player in my approach model and 11th in the “Core 4”. Stallings as the upside and talent to win this week.

(0.68u) BetRivers

Lanto Griffin +12500

Griffin appears to finally be healthy again and looking to get back to his form as one of the most underrated golfers on the Tour. In his second start since returning from injury he sat inside the top-20 at Torrey Pines on Saturday before falling back to 37th place. The California native is a terrific Poa grass putter and an excellent all-around player. In his two trips to Pebble Beach, he has finishes of 9th and 16th.

(0.26u) PointsBet

Troy Merritt +12500

Pebble Beach is Merritt’s “Happy Place”. In his last four trips to the Monterey Peninsula he has finished 8th, 25th, 16th and 4th. He has also played very well over the years on courses that rate similar to Pebble such as his 3rd place finish at Mayakoba a few months ago. Merritt tends to lean on his irons and putter. and the three courses this week present the perfect setup for him to have another spike week.

(0.19u) BetRivers

Other Outright Selections

Finishing Position Picks

Top 10

Top 20 – all PointsBet

  • Jordan Spieth +110 (1.2u)
  • Viktor Hovland +115 (1.1u)
  • Maverick McNealy +140 (1u)
  • Tom Hoge +150 (1u)
  • Seamus Power +165 (1u)

Top 30 – All BetRivers

  • Thomas Detry +110 (1.1u)  
  • Alex Smalley +110 (1.1u)
  • Scott Stallings +138 (1u)

Top 40

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Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images