The PGA Tour’s California swing continues this week on the Monterrey Peninsula for the three-course Pro-Am at Pebble Beach Golf Links. Similar to the American Express a few weeks ago, this is a 54-hole cut event, with each Pro-Am duo playing one round at Spyglass Hill (6,953 yards, Par-72), Monterey Peninsula’s Shore Course (6,958 yards, Par-71) and the host course, Pebble Beach (7,051 yards, Par-72), with the top 60 and ties moving on to Sunday’s final round on the host course. They’re all short coastal courses with Poa annua greens where the degree of difficulty is dictated by the wind.
This is more descriptive than predictive, but it’s worth noting that over the past decade or so, Tom Hoge’s 2022 win at 60/1 was an outlier Pebble Beach. This event has been won exclusively by either top-of-the-board talent (Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Daniel Berger, etc.) or the longest of long shots (Nick Taylor, Ted Potter Jr., Vaughn Taylor). Golfers priced at 30/1 to 100/1, a massive range, have been a money pit for outright tickets of late. You can make a case that the shift of talent to LIV Golf changes the calculus here moving forward, but we have a clear “Big 3” this week (Spieth, Hovland, and Fitzpatrick) and then a sizable dropoff in terms of status and world ranking.
This is also a track where experience matters. Since 2000, every winner at this event recorded a T16 or better in one or more of their previous three starts here. With the Pro-Am element forcing a three-course rotation and slow rounds, this is not everyone’s cup of tea, which is likely why just ten of the world’s top 50 golfers are here this week.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bFor more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here’s an important tidbit about the unique setup this week:
Golfers will rotate through Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill Golf Course, and Monterey Peninsula Country Club (Shore Course), with a Saturday cut-line and the top-60 and ties finishing at Pebble Beach on Sunday. With all three courses exposed along the Pacific coast, weather can definitely change quickly here and influence the outcome of this tournament. The three courses share other similarities as well. Each is among the shortest courses on Tour at under 7,050 yards. Each has smaller than average greens, with Pebble Beach’s coming in at the most minuscule on Tour at an average of only 3,500 square feet. And finally, each course has the same 2″ or less rough length along with Poa annua greens.
A second-shot course, if there ever was one, players will be provided with a challenging test of patience, pitching wedges, and Poa putting. For those that played last week at Torrey Pines, the emphasis shifts from distance and long-iron play to short-iron precision on equally difficult greens.
With wide fairways and non-penal rough making off-the-tee impact minimal, players can separate from the field with pinpoint accuracy on approach shots. This is much easier said than done. Along with the common sidehill lies (discussed above), many of the greens are also elevated. All of these factors combined, along with the effects of the wind, make Pebble Beach the sixth toughest annual ShotLink-measured course in which to gain strokes on approach.
My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, so I’ll share my opinion on the best way to bet on each golfer in my player pool at this week’s event. When pricing out finishing position bets (T5, T10, T20s, etc.), I’ll often lean towards BetMGM even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. So know the rules of the books that you’re betting on!
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets from myself or other contributors. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication.
Noonan’s Pebble Beach Betting Targets
Seamus Power
The majority of Seamus Power’s best work has come on setups similar to what Pebble Beach has to offer this week. Short coastal courses with resort-style setups like Bermuda, Sea Island, and Mayaboka have been where Power has thrived, and he was the 36-hole leader here last year, taking a five-shot lead into the weekend. He’s carried his swing-season form into the start of the 2023 calendar year, finishing no worse than T25 in his past five starts, three of which were inside the top five, including his early November win in Bermuda.
He’s built to go low, is adept with his wedges, and can scramble when need be, and that matters this week due to the inevitable missed greens. I hope you were able to jump in when we pushed out the play at 28 or even 25/1.
- To Win: 28/1 on BetRivers
- Top 20: +165 on DraftKings
Ben Griffin
Over the past 12 months, Ben Griffin ranks second on Tour in strokes gained approach from 100-150 yards out, trailing former Tour player Cameron Smith by 0.001 of a point. With nearly 40% of approach shots coming from that range this week, Ben Griffin continues to get my attention.
His swing season was highlighted by a T3 finish at Bermuda the week that Seamus Power won, so the coastal and low-scoring vibes are strong. He’s gained strokes on approach in six straight measured events, including last week at a much tougher test at Torrey Pines. He’ll likely be a chalky outright selection, even at 65/1, because he’s going to rate highly for anyone that’s modeling key statistics this week.
- To Win: 65/1 on FanDuel
David Lipsky
David Lipsky breaks the recent T16 or better finish at Pebble trend, but he was 24th here last year in his debut, and that’s close enough. I’m also never making a decision solely based on a trend, and neither should you.
Lipsky is capable of some jaw-droppingly-bad putting performances like we saw last time out at the American Express, but the rest of his game is custom-made for Pebble Beach. Lagging behind off the tee doesn’t matter here. What does matter is that Lipsky is pristine in the aforementioned approach ranges and is a terrific scrambler.
- To Win: 80/1 on PointsBet
Brendon Todd
Brendon Todd is custom-built for this setup. His best baseline skill is his putting, and when he puts together a strong putting week while gaining shots on approach, he plays weekend golf. When his approach game goes badly, he doesn’t. Plain and simple.
He’s a streaky player, but he’ll give himself plenty of birdie looks. He plays short Par 4s well and ranks eight in approach proximity from the 100-125 yard range. He also ranks inside the top ten in strokes gained around the green, so he can chip it close and save himself with his putter more times than not. We’ve seen that streakiness here in the past, with three T16 or better finishes, along with four missed cuts over his past eight tries. I’m willing to take a shot on Todd because, unlike a lot of the other bombs down the board, he’s shown that he can actually win golf tournaments, not just randomly compete.
- To Win: 80/1 on BetMGM
FanDuel Finishing Position Parlay
They’ve yet to post T40 odds, so make sure you’re in Discord to get these when they’re posted.
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