The 2022-2023 golf calendar is getting a facelift, and the swing season as we know it will look quite different. This swing season finishes at Sea Island in St. Simons Island, Georgia, for the RSM Classic. This event is split between courses for the two opening rounds, the Par-70 Seaside course, and the Par-72 Plantation course. Each golfer will see both tracks, splitting their Thursday and Friday rounds between the two courses, with weekend play hosted at Seaside.
We don’t have shot-tracker data for the Plantation round, but it plays similarly, yet slightly easier, than the Seaside course has historically, due in large part to the ease of the two extra Par-5s. A look at past leaderboards here shows a fairly straightforward recipe for success. Fairways off the tee, elite approach form from 125-175 yards out, and the ability to get hot on these Bermuda greens since the winning score hovers around 20-under par.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview, but here’s an important tidbit:
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bAs is the case with most coastal courses, the strength of the wind is the X-factor. Yet even with numerous “windy” rounds, over the 12 events played here, the average winning score has been 18-under par. The data shows that both the Seaside and Plantation courses used in this event are among the easiest played on Tour in numerous statistical categories.
The good news is that because both Seaside and Plantation are so short, distance off the tee is a non-factor this week. Most players will use “less than driver” and club down to ensure their ball finds the fairway.
Since this week ultimately does boil down to a putting contest thanks to wide fairways and large greens, having the skill to attack flags on the correct side of these sloped greens will be key. Last year, each of the top-eight players on the leaderboard gained at least 3.5 strokes on approach.
There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication.
Noonan’s RSM Classic Betting Targets
Tom Hoge
Tom Hoge missed the cut on the number last time out at Mayakoba, but he finished T13 or better in his four previous swing season starts, and his game is a perfect fit for what matters most at Sea Island. Hoge rates out as my top golfer in the field over the past 24, 36, and 50 rounds using our updated and soon-to-be-released customizable stat database. He is accurate off the tee, dynamic in the second-shot proximity ranges, and piles up scoring opportunities. He’s also gained strokes putting in each swing season starts, and his T4 here last season doesn’t hurt. Many of his top career finishes have come on similar coastal-style layouts, and I love him at this price.
To Win: 30/1 BetMGM
Keith Mitchell
There are a lot of golfers in the field with ties to the Sea Island area, and starting your analysis there will lead you to numerous viable contenders this week. Of that bunch, Keith Mitchell, fresh off of a T9 last week in Houston, is my favorite of the bunch at cost. An excellent driver of the ball and back on his preferred putting surface, Mitchell was sixth in strokes-gained approach last week in Houston. I like Mitchell’s chances this week if that form can carry over. He’s finished inside the top 14 here twice in the past three years, so he knows how to navigate these two tracks.
To Win: 33/1 BetMGM
Justin Rose
This one’s not for the faint of heart since a mid-tournament withdrawal always feels like it’s possible with Rose these days, but I like how he played last week in Houston. He struggled on the greens on Sunday but found fairways all week, hitting at least 10 of 13 fairways in every round, and his approach game was strong all four rounds. If he can run it back again this week, he’ll find himself in the mix in this field. He teed it up here last season for just the second time in his career and finished T12.
To Win: 50/1 FanDuel
FanDuel Finishing Position Parlay
David Lipsky and Zach Johnson T40 (+900) FanDuel
This is quite the duo. I didn’t bet on our 2023 Ryder Cup Captain, Zach Johnson, to win this event, but he’s available at 210/1 if that’s your thing. This is one of the few tracks where he can still compete, and a quick glance at his recent history here backs that up. He’s made the cut in his last five starts here, producing three top-10s and a T16 last season. We’re far from this multiple Major championship winner’s prime, but he can slap it around here and T40, which is priced at 3/1.
I’m not sure David Lipsky can win either, but I bet him to do so at 90/1, and he feels like a safe T40 option here. He’s finished T40, T10, and T22 in his past three starts and ranks fourth in this field for me over the past 24 rounds and seventh over the past 36 rounds. Fairways, solid approach game, an above-average rate of birdie looks.
Unlike most other books I’m familiar with, FanDuel allows you to parlay finishing position bets. Now, the very premise of the bet is flawed because the expected value is negative since players are competing for the same finishing positions. If the bet is two T40s like this one, when one leg of your parlay finishes above the threshold, there’s now one less spot available in that range for the other leg(s) to also come in. I know the math is terrible. Spare me. But let’s be honest. Some bets are just fun, and these are fun for me.
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