Strategy
This opening week of the new PGA Tour season presents us with so many different narratives to consider. First off, most of the players in the upper tier are playing in next week’s Presidents Cup. This would include Max Homa, Hideki Matsuyama, Taylor Pendrith, Corey Conners, and Cameron Davis. Are they using this event as preparation for next week, or will they be motivated to try to win the Fortinet Championship this week? It is an interesting question to consider.
I am out on Matsuyama and Conners this week. Matsuyama has lost strokes off the tee in his last four events and has lost strokes to the field overall over the last three months. He also does not play many weak-field events such as this and has never won any of them. As for Conners, he ranks as one of the worst putters in the field on Poa annua greens losing over one stroke per round. I will be slightly overweight on Homa because his actions prove he is one of the most motivated players on Tour in every single event he plays. He has flat-out said that his goal is to be the top player in the world. His wedge game from the crucial yardage of 75-150 is vastly improved. He is also an elite putter on Poa. And of course, he won here last year.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bWith the return of football, golf is often forgotten. But folks shouldn’t sleep on the fall Swing season here on the PGA Tour. There’s a tremendous influx of new young talent and the same green money to be made in DFS and betting if you put the time into researching and educating yourself on these unfamiliar names. Doing so will really give you a heads-up on DraftKings, especially in our first week back with the Fortinet Championship. If you haven’t had a proper education yet on all the Korn Ferry graduates, I highly recommend this piece from our very own DFS Show host, Byron Lindeque.
For me, I typically like to see these players in action on the Tour before rostering them. That being said, Taylor Montgomery and Justin Suh have both had a small amount of past success on the Tour in a limited sample size. They will be the only Korn Ferry graduates that I will have in my player pool this week.
Another narrative that I am 100% buying is the California angle. Four of the past eight trophies were taken home by players with California connections including Homa, Brendan Steele (twice), and Cameron Champ. Along with these three, there are numerous California players that I will be overweight on in my player pool including Sahith Theegala, Jason Day, J.J Spaun, Mark Hubbard, and Patrick Rodgers.
Finally, I am also all in on the “bomber” off-the-tee narrative. While shorter hitters have also had success here, driving distance is definitely an added bonus in that it allows players to hit higher lofter irons into these firm greens. With most of the holes being fairly straight with only a couple of doglegs and an almost complete lack of hazards, golfers can pick their line off the tee and bomb away if they choose. Unlike other shorter courses like Waialae or Harbour Town, there are not many holes with forced layups. Though the rough is three inches, it is very playable as evidenced by the Greens in Regulation (GIR) rate from missed fairways being 9% easier than the Tour average. Taking it even further, the Birdie or Better rate from the rough is almost 5% higher than the average course. With the rough not being much of a factor, those with increased Driving Distance have a clear path to success.
Looking more closely at the bomber angle, when Cameron Champ won here two years ago he highlighted this was actually part of his strategy by saying “Sometimes I don’t even care if I’m in the rough, it doesn’t really matter. I’ll just try to position it off the tee. I’ll take it in the rough being way up there and hitting driver. That’s kind of how I look at it this week.” When Champ won this back in 2019, his Driving Accuracy was only 53.6% but he still hit 73.6% of GIR. One year later in 2020, winner, Stewart Cink’s numbers were even more pronounced with a Fairway rate of 55.4% and a GIR of 84.7%.
Additionally, course renovator, Johnny Miller was always very aggressive off the tee himself and did not want to penalize players for using driver. None of the par 4s or par 5s have water hazards to contend with and there are very few fairway bunkers that can’t be carried by almost everyone. “Bombers” that I will be overweight on this week include Champ, Rodgers, Wyndham Clark, Luke List and Chris Gotterup.
Napa, CA Weather Forecast (September 15th-September 18th)
Top 10 Most Important Stats
*In order of importance.
- SG: APP (75-150 yds)
- Par 5 Scoring
- SG: Putting (Poa)
- Driving Distance
- Birdie or Better %
- Par 4 (400-450 yds)
- SG: ARG/Scrambling
- Opportunities Gained
- SG: Short Courses
- SG: Putting 5-15 feet
The Fortinet Championship DraftKings Picks
Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options.
Core Plays
Upper-Tier Plays
Mid-Range Plays
Value Plays
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