Surrounded by the golden hills of the Napa Valley, the 2022-2023 PGA Tour begins out west with the Fortinet Championship. One of the rising stars on Tour, California native Max Homa returns to defend his title from last season. Played on the North course at the 1,200-acre property known as the Silverado Resort and Spa, this will be the ninth consecutive year for the resort to host this event.
The North course at Silverado is one of the shortest on Tour and features narrow tree-lined fairways, few hazards, non-penal rough, and tricky sloping greens. It is a very straightforward and scoreable course with a winning score that has averaged 17-under par since 2014.
This opening event also signals the beginning of another FedExCup season. Thankfully, this will be the last ever start to a PGA Tour season in the month of September. After a long stretch of incorporating a wraparound calendar schedule, the Tour will implement a January-to-August season starting in 2024. This first event features a full 156-player field with the typical cut-line after Friday’s round.
For casual observers, there will be plenty of unfamiliar names that will be competing in this event. Many Korn Ferry Tour graduates will be making their debut as full PGA Tour members. Among the new members, Justin Suh is the most familiar name as he topped the combined Points List and will be fully exempt this season. While the field lacks star power, these fall events are an important week for everyone who is trying to rack up FedExCup points as only the top 70 golfers (instead of the typical 130) will earn their way into next year’s FedExCup Playoffs.
Only eight of the top 70 players in the world will tee it up at Silverado starting on Thursday. Along with Homa, the field is headlined by Hideki Matsuyama, Corey Conners, Tom Hoge, Sahith Theegala, Cameron Davis, Davis Riley, and Alex Noren. With the Presidents Cup taking place next week, the International team will be well-represented, with Matsuyama, Conners, Davis, and Taylor Pendrith all playing this week.
Keys to Success
With the return of football, golf is often forgotten. But folks shouldn’t sleep on the fall Swing season here on the PGA Tour. There’s a tremendous influx of new young talent and the same green money to be made in DFS and betting if you put the time into researching and educating yourself on these unfamiliar names. Doing so will really give you a heads-up on DraftKings, especially in our first week back with the Fortinet Championship. If you haven’t had a proper education yet on all the Korn Ferry graduates, I highly recommend this piece from our very own DFS Show host, Byron Lindeque.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bWith a PGA event being held here at the Silverado Resort & Spa for the past eight consecutive years, we have plenty of course history and data from which to analyze. All types of drivers are welcome here, both bombers and shorter hitters. With a Fairway Accuracy rate of only 51%, everyone will miss fairways. Driving Distance is one my key stats in the “Core 4” and is definitely a bonus on this course as golfers can pick their line off the tee and bomb away if they choose. The list of recent winners here, including Stewart Cink, Cameron Champ, Kevin Tway, and Brendan Steele, would suggest that distance off the tee leads to success. Increased distance leads to shorter irons and wedges into firm greens. Last year Silverado had its highest Driving Distance ever at 292 yds.
Silverado also has the second-fewest combined hazards when looking at water and bunkers. Bombers who are wildly inconsistent at times off the tee like Sahith Theegala, Chris Gotterup, and Cameron Davis will not be penalized for wayward drives. For that reason, bomber-types will be one of my primary targets for all types of bets.
While there have been numerous winners here at Silverado who have not been historically good putters, these greens are among the more challenging on Tour. And because of this fact, my SG: Putting sub-model for this event is also par of the weekly “Core 4”. Golfers who are consistent from 5-15 feet and that have past putting success on Poa annua should also be on your radar this week. Players like Wyndham Clark and Patrick Rodgers (who are also bombers) are perfect examples.
Instead of going with the full SG: Approach model in the “Core 4” this week, I have narrowed it down to Proximity from the important range of 75-150 yards. One of the main reasons for the GIR% being so high, even from the rough, is that 44% of approach shots come from this range. That is 11% above the Tour average of 33%. Some players who rank high is this proximity metric that I have already bet this week include Cameron Davis, Tom Hoge, Brendan Steele, and Chez Reavie.
Finally, with an average winning score of 17-under over the past eight events, it is imperative to target players with high birdie rates who also generate the most chances inside 15 feet and who can also take advantage of the par-5s. The top four players in the field that rank highest in my Scoring sub-model include Cameron Davis, Davis Riley, Taylor Pendrith and Max Homa.
Napa, CA Weather Forecast (September 15th-September 18th)
Top 10 Most Important Stats
*In order of importance.
- SG: APP (75-150 yds)
- Par 5 Scoring
- SG: Putting (Poa)
- Driving Distance
- Birdie or Better %
- Par 4 (400-450 yds)
- SG: ARG/Scrambling
- Opportunities Gained
- SG: Short Courses
- SG: Putting 5-15 feet
The Fortinet Championship Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Taylor Pendrith +3000
As an accurate bomber with a sharp iron game who can get streaky hot with his flat stick, Pendrith fits Silverado perfectly. Over the last six months, he has six top-25 finishes and was runner-up at the Rocket Mortgage. Having been named to the International team for the Presidents Cup he is full of confidence and ready to take the next step among the game’s elite.
Cameron Davis +3500
Davis is coming off the most consistent season of his career and is primed for a breakthrough year. He crushes the Par 5s and won’t be penalized for his tendency to spray the ball off the tee. He has turned into one of the best putters on Tour. He actually gains strokes at a higher rate on shorter courses similar to Silverado. Over the last two months, he ranks fourth in this field in total strokes gained.
(0.68u) BetRivers
Davis Riley +4000 (currently +3500)
Anybody who watched Riley’s progress this season knows that his first PGA victory is right around the corner. He finished in the top 13 in eight events. His SG total per round improved by 1.36 strokes, and his ball-striking metrics are on the rise. His poor putting ability is somewhat mitigated here as bad putters have still found success on these greens.
(0.60u) BetRivers
Sahith Theegala +3500 (currently +3000)
Though he can be wildly inconsistent at times, Theegala has flashed signs of greatness including multiple near wins at the Waste Management and the Travelers. Being 100% in on the home-grown narrative this week, the California native who went to Pepperdine should be able to take advantage of a weaker field here at the Fortinet. He has made the cut here in his two appearances, finishing 14th in 2020.
Brendan Steele +5500 (currently +4500)
At Silverado, Steele is a true “course horse” if there ever was one. Not only is he a two-time winner here, but he also had the 54-hole lead back in 2015 before faltering in the final round. Another local product, he ranks first off the tee and fourth in approach in this entire field. In fact, over the last six months, he leads the entire world in ball-striking! While the putter is his biggest downfall, the good news is that he is very familiar with these greens and has gained an average of 1.4 strokes per round here since 2014.
(0.43u) BetRivers
Cameron Champ +9000 (currently +8000)
Champ is a past winner here in 2019 and is another California native whose volatile skill set thrives on a wide-open course off the tee here at Silverado. And with the Fortinet signaling the start of the fall “Swing” season here’s this…
(0.26u) BetRivers
Other Outright Selections
- Jason Day +8000 (currently +10000) (0.30u) – DraftKings
- Patrick Rodgers +11000 (currently +6600) (0.21u) – FanDuel
- Luke List +13000 (currently +12500) (0.18u) – DraftKings
- Chris Gotterup +13000 (currently +12500) (0.18u) – DraftKings
- Harris English +15000 (0.16u) – DraftKings
Finishing Position Picks
Top 20
Top 30 – all FanDuel
- Sahith Theegala +120 (1.2u) – BetRivers
- Cameron Davis +120 (1.2u) – BetRivers
- Davis Riley +120 (1.1u) – BetRivers
- Brendan Steele +125 (1.2u) – FanDuel
- Emiliano Grillo +140 (1.1u) – FanDuel
- Tom Hoge +145 (1.2u) – FanDuel
Top 40
- Gary Woodland +110 (1.1u) – FanDuel
- Taylor Montgomery +110 (1.1u) – FanDuel
- Justin Suh +110 (1.1u) – DraftKings
- Trey Mullinax +110 (1.2u) – DraftKings
- Andrew Putnam +120 (1u) – FanDuel
- Chez Reavie +138 (2u) – BetRivers
- Cameron Champ +140 (1u) – DraftKings
- Jason Day +140 (1u) – DraftKings
- Patrick Rodgers +150 (1.5u) – DraftKings
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Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images