We weren’t away for long, but we’re back! The 2022/2023 season kicks off just outside of the Catalina Wine Mixer in Napa Valley at Silverado’s North Course for the Fortinet Championship. Eight of the top 70 in the Official World Golf Rankings are here, including defending champion and soon-to-be 4for4 Football betting subscription owner Max Homa.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview, but here’s an important tidbit:
The shortness of the course also contributes to its ease. Measuring in at under 7,200 from the tips, the par-72 course ranks as the 9th shortest annual course on Tour. Looking at the winners’ circle, both bombers and shorter hitters have seen success here.
Eight of the par-4s are between 375 and 435 yards. With an average driving distance that has increasingly crept higher over the years (291.7 last year), players will have plenty of short irons and wedges opportunities on these holes. Each of the four par-5s is reachable in two shots, with an average Birdie or Better rate of 39%. The par-3s present the biggest challenge on the course, as three are among the four toughest holes on the property and have a bogey or worse rate of 21%.
There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. When pricing out finishing position bets, I’ll often lean towards BetMGM even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. Know the rules of the books that you’re betting on, folks!
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
I’m not sure how I’ll be allocating funds for the swing season yet, but for now, I’m concentrating on outright selections in this space.
*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bNoonan’s Fortinet Betting Targets
Cam Davis
Despite the lack of Sunday afternoon hardware last season, it’s hard to argue against the 2021/2022 season being the best to date for the 27-year-old Aussie, Cam Davis. He doubled the previous year’s top-20 finishes with eight and made it to the BMW Championship, the second round of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, finishing just outside the final Tour Championship field of 30. Leading up to the BMW, Davis finished T16 or better in five straight starts, spearheaded by exceptional tee-to-green performances every week.
Understanding that distance off the tee and wedge play are pillars of success at Silverado, Davis is the first name that jumps to mind. Over the past 36 rounds, Davis ranks second in proximity from 100-125 yards and 10th in proximity from 125-150 yards, two common second-shot ranges, especially considering Davis’s length off the tee. He’s also an excellent Par-3 scorer, a bonus since those holes grade out as the toughest on this course.
- Win: 34/1 PointsBet
Alex Smalley
Alex Smalley has shown an ability to play well out of nowhere, an added bonus in the first event off of extended rest. For you Daily Fantasy Sports folks, Smalley is like a human GPP. The swings are wild and sometimes quite painful, but the good is so rewarding. Most of his best finishes on Tour last season were either proceeded or followed by a missed cut. In most instances, both. He cares not about your desire to find form.
The good news is that Smalley is a terrific ball-striker, ranking 11th in the field in both strokes gained approach (SG: APP) and strokes gained ball-striking (SG: BS) over the past 36 rounds. He has the length off the tee that I’m looking for this week and has shown a preference for Poa greens, with two of his best showings on the green last season coming at Pebble Beach and Riviera. He was posted at 65/1 on DraftKings, likely taking some early sharp money when the lines were first published.
- Win: 100/1: FanDuel
Patrick Rodgers
Patrick Rodgers’s 110/1 on FanDuel is another line that’s way off-market, with 80’s available at most other shops on Monday morning. T6 last year at this event, Patrick Rodgers is a northern California native who’s played his best on California tracks throughout his career. A cold putter kept him from advancing past the first round of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, but Rodgers’s approach play was at the heart of his improvements on Tour last season.
After averaging between -0.37 and -0.52 strokes gained per round on approach from 2017-2021, Rodgers finished 2022 with +0.09 strokes per round, a sizeable gain when you consider how vital approach play is every week. His baseline skill is higher than his peers in this range, and he presents outstanding value north of 100/1 in this field.
- Win: 110/1 FanDuel
Adam Svensson
The 28-year-old Canuck Adam Svensson profiles a bit differently than the other golfers on my card this week. Svensson is more of a fairway-finder off the tee compared to the grip-it-and-rip-it nature of the names above him in this space, but he’s worth a look, given his outstanding wedge game. Svensson is among the very best in this field inside 125 yards out, and even with his limited length off the tee, he’ll find himself with less than 125 yards to the pin on his second shot on a lot of holes this week. So finding fairways and greens won’t be an issue, and if a spiked putting week follows, Svensson can contend.
- Win: 110/1 DraftKings
FanDuel Finishing Position Parlay
Stewart Cink and Emiliano Grillo- T40 (+339) FanDuel
Unlike most other books I’m familiar with, FanDuel allows you to parlay finishing position bets. Now, the very premise of the bet is flawed because the expected value is negative since players are competing for the same finishing positions. If the bet is two T40s like this one, when one leg of your parlay finishes above the threshold, there’s now one less spot available in that range for the other leg(s) to also come in. I know the math is terrible. Spare me. But let’s be honest. Some bets are just fun, and these are fun for me.
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Featured Image – Andy Lyons/Getty Images