With each passing year, golf’s talent pool seems to get stronger. Even with the intrusion of the LIV tour and the defections of numerous PGA Tour regulars, a flock of young skillful players will quickly step in and fill any void. If you are a “data person”, one of the best ways to measure who had a great year in golf is to look back at a player’s metrics going back to the previous season and compare to where they are right now. While strokes gained (SG) data has its flaws, it does present a quality “big picture” outlook. When comparing this past season with the 2020-2021 PGA season we can gain a glimpse into which players are on the rise and can present value on both their betting odds and fantasy salaries. Likewise, players who have sharply declined, especially with their ball-striking splits, are golfers to avoid as the 2023 season begins.
The process was to simply compare the past two seasons to analyze who had made either the biggest improvements or the steepest declines in each of the strokes gained metrics. For sample size purposes, a minimum of 20 measured rounds per season was required. Data includes every PGA Tour round for SG: Total and every measured round for the other SG categories.
SG: Off The Tee
Top 10
Biggest Risers
Biggest Fallers
SG: Approach
Top 10
Biggest Risers
Biggest Fallers
SG: Ball-Striking
Top 10
Biggest Risers
Biggest Fallers
SG: Around the Green
Top 10
Biggest Risers
Biggest Fallers
SG: Tee-to-Green
Top 10
Biggest Risers
Biggest Fallers
SG: Putting
Top 10
Biggest Risers
Biggest Fallers
SG: Total
Top 10
Biggest Risers
Biggest Fallers
Top Breakout Candidates
During this past season, we witnessed golfers like Max Homa, Scottie Scheffler, and Matt Fitzpatrick go from good players to elite players. Looking at the data, there are a few players that can make a similar jump heading into the 2023 season.
Davis Riley
Even though Riley only played 20 rounds two seasons ago, anybody who watched his progress this season knows that his first PGA victory is right around the corner. He finished in the top 13 in eight events. His SG total per round improved by 1.36 strokes, and his ball-striking metrics are on the rise. Gaining consistency with the putter will be key for him as he had four events where he lost two or more strokes putting. It would not surprise me to see him among the elite players in the world by the end of the 2022-2023 season.
Keith Mitchell
Mitchell has turned himself into one of the best players in the world off the tee. This past season also saw him rebound with his short game, especially around the green where he improved by 0.42 strokes per round. Over the past three months of the season, he ranked as the 14th best player on Tour and was first off the tee. While he hasn’t won an event since the 2019 Honda Classic, he had six top 10 finishes this year and, thanks to his overall consistency (as I previously outlined here), the floodgates could open.
J.T. Poston
With Poston, I think it’s fair to say the breakout has already commenced. From the first event of the season through the end of March, Poston missed 10 out of 14 cuts and was mired in one of the worst slumps of his career. But starting with the RBC Heritage in April where he finished third, something started to click. Leading up to that point, he had spent countless hours working on his swing with his coach, John McNeeley, and the positive results quickly followed. From that third-place finish to the rest of the season he had six top 15 finishes, including a win at the John Deere Classic. Always great with his short game, he has seen the biggest improvements with his ball-striking, gaining an amazing 0.82 strokes per round which was the second-best upgrade on Tour in that area behind only Davis Riley.
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