Strategy
This will be short and sweet this week. Personally, I am playing only one lineup. It will not have Scheffler and Cantlay. When there is a staggered start like in this event, I want a lineup full of chasers who either have a chance of overtaking those at the top or who have a great course history at East Lake. Motivation also comes into play. When Sunday rolls around and a guy is eight shots off the lead, will he fight to the end? Or will he just try to finish the round as quickly as possible and take his guaranteed money and go home.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bBilly Horschel ($6.9K) is an immediate play that comes to mind of someone who fits the bill for all three of those angles. He is starting nine shots behind and has a great course history at East Lake, having won here and gaining an average of one full stroke on the field in 20 career rounds. And based on how he carries himself on the course, we know that he will scratch and claw until the very end because he respects the game so much.
Sam “Bermuda” Burns ($9.9K) is also a great course fit because of how well he plays on this grass surface. And only starting five shots behind with three players in front of him, he has the upside in his game to make up that difference very easily with four full rounds.
Those two players, along with Aaron Wise ($5.4K), who is the best value on the board, and Xander Schauffele ($12.3K) will all be in my lineup. Having won this event back in 2017 before the implementation of the staggered start, Schauffele continued his dominance at East Lake by also finishing with the lowest total score in both 2018 and 2020. In 20 career rounds, he has gained an average of 1.9 strokes per round here. Rory McIlroy is a distant second at 1.3 per round. Not only has Schauffele been great here, and in no-cut events in general, but he might be playing the best golf of his career with two wins and a third-place finish over the past six weeks. I think he is also definitely in play to overcome the starting strokes disadvantage.
Atlanta GA Weather Forecast (August 25th-August 28th)
Top 10 Most Important Stats
*In order of importance.
- SG: APP
- Total Driving
- Fairways Gained
- Birdie or Better %
- Bogey Avoidance
- Proximity (200+)
- SG: Putting (Bermuda)
- Par 4 Scoring
- Good Drive %
- East Lake GC History
The Tour Championship DraftKings Picks
Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options.
Core Plays
Upper-Tier Plays
Mid-Range Plays
Value Plays
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