We have finally made it to the end of the 2022 PGA Tour Season. It has been a wonderful year full of epic wins and a year that really shaped the future of the tour. The top 30 in the FedEx Cup rankings will all make their way to East Lake to compete for the Tour Championship.
This is the most different PGA tour event that we get all season. It is only a 30-man field, there is a staggered start, and there are two different leaderboards to bet on. The staggered start is due to where the golfers ranked in their FedEx Cup standings during the season. Scottie Scheffler will start at -10, Cantlay at -8, Schauffele at -6 and so on.
This leads us to the two different ways you can wager on this event. You can bet on the regular leaderboard with the starting strokes so if you bet Cantlay to win at +300 he would have to overcome that two-shot deficit to win.
There is a shadow leaderboard that you can also bet on. This is just gross lowest score. Everyone is going to start at even par. This won’t be very easy to follow since the leaderboard won’t reflect that, but it is the best market to wager on, in my opinion.
The Tour Championship is held at East Lake Golf Club every single year. This is a 7,319-yard par 70 with Bermuda Grass Greens, Zoysia Fairways, and Bermuda Rough. It was originally designed by Donald Ross with a Rees Jones renovation in 1994.
I am focused on fairway accuracy, proximity over 200 yards, and bogey avoidance this week.
Let’s get into my favorite picks for the week.
Outright (without starting strokes) : Adam Scott +2200 (DraftKings)
Adam Scott has a mix of a lot of things that point to a stellar week, great form, good course history, and motivation for the end-of-the-season cash grab. Adam is off two straight top 5 finishes in the last two FedEx Cup playoff events. 5th place finishes at the St. Jude and 5th place finish last week a the BMW.
Both performances were anchored by stellar putting, leading the field at the St. Jude and gaining 2.8 at the BMW. Once a weak point of his game, he has figured it out with the flat stick.
I also really like how accurate off the tee he is, gaining strokes in that category in 4 straight starts. Scott has finished 5th, 8th, 9th, and 14th in his 4 appearances at East Lake. This course should set up well for him.
+2200 is a great price for a golfer that is playing some excellent golf right now.
Top 5 (without starting strokes) Xander Schaffuele +150 (DraftKings)
Death. Taxes. Xander at East Lake. There is seriously not many golfers that have developed a connotation with a course more than Xander here. He has some of the best course histories of anyone at one venue. If you take away the starting strokes he has gone 1st, 7th, 2nd, 1st, and third in his five appearances here.
This really checks out as to why it is a good course fit. He is very accurate off the tee, a great long iron player, and doesn’t have to make a million birdies. This will continue to be a place for him to succeed. I also believe the fact that he is only starting 4 back of the leaders, he will be motivated enough to go out and compete.
I know that +150 is not sexy odds or anything, but for someone that has only not finished in the top 5 once in 5 trips, it’s a no-brainer.
Top 10 (Without Starting Strokes) Aaron Wise +190 (DraftKings)
I absolutely love Aaron Wise this week. This will be a course that he continues to contend with in his career. Coming in some great form and being what I believe is a great fit, a top 10 is in play this week.
Aaron ranks 41st on tour in total driving, which is a combination of distance and accuracy. East Lake is a venue with very penal rough that places importance on hitting the fairway. He always ranks 11th in proximity from 200+. This will be an important distance this week. Given the length of the par 3s and the importance of scoring on the two par 5s. Long iron play will vital this week.
Wise is also playing some great golf. He is coming off a 15th place finish last week where he gained 6 strokes ball striking and 1.4 putting. His best result this season was at the memorial. Which is another old-school course with a premium on hitting the fairway. This is a great spot for wise.
Matchup: Tony Finau over Sungjae Im -125 (DraftKings)
To clear up any confusion, Tony and Sungjae are starting at the same strokes. So Tony doesn’t have to come back to beat Sungjae. I am just going to take the best golfer this summer over Im here. It’s hard to make the case that anyone is playing better than Tony. Sadly he got off to a horrible start on Thursday that derailed his chances of winning. After a Thursday 77, he shot 68, 67,68.
Finau is a combined -18 in his starts at East Lake is one of the most elite drivers in the field. I think the bounces back well after just one bad round last week.
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