The top 125 golfers in the FedExCup standings will travel to Tennessee for the FedEx St. Jude Championship which is the opening playoff event of the PGA Tour’s season-long points competition. Nestled in the rolling countryside just southeast of Memphis sits TPC Southwind, which is hosting a playoff event for the first time. It is a course that is infamous for its “water balls” and one that historically rewards the best ball-strikers in the world. In the past six events played at this course, winners have included some of the best ball-strikers in the world including Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Abraham Ancer, and Daniel Berger (twice).
Only the top 70 in the FedExCup standings after this week will advance to the BMW Championship. This is also the last tournament this season with a cut. Even with a smaller field, the top 65 and ties will advance to the weekend. Since this course has hosted a PGA Tour event every year since 1989 we have plenty of course history and data to rely on this week. With $15 million dollars in prize money on the line, there is plenty of motivation for the top players to not treat this week as a warm-up for the following two rounds.
Of course, an entire host of prominent names will not be in Memphis this week. Players like Koepka, Johnson, Ancer, and Bryson DeChambeau are suspended from playing in PGA events after joining the rival LIV Golf tour. Three players, Talor Gooch, Hudson Swafford, and Matt Jones are actually seeking a temporary restraining order that would allow them to play this week. With a court date set for Tuesday, if they are allowed to play after current Tour players have come out strongly against the notion, there could be some major drama throughout the week.
Course History
Designed with tournament in golf mind, TPC Southwind was built in 1988 and was designed by Ron Prichard, in consultation with Tour professionals Fuzzy Zoeller and Hubert Green. Prichard is well-known in golf architecture circles as the “father of restoration”, most notably with certain Donald Ross-designed courses. Though not a restoration, it is one of the more difficult “TPC” courses played on Tour.
TPC Southwind itself was first renovated in 2004 in order to modernize the course and make it more challenging. 11 new tee boxes were added along with 125 trees and 15 new bunkers. Three of the water hazards were also enlarged. Even more changes occurred back in 2020. This time, most of the upgrades were related to adding, resizing, and re-edging numerous bunkers. There were also a few holes such as the 3rd and the 7th that were extended fifteen-plus yards.
In 1989, the course began hosting the Federal Express St. Jude Classic just one year after it was built, and would continue to do so through 2018. Over the past three years, the course hosted the World Golf Championship (WGC) FedEx St. Jude Invitational. This year’s playoff debut for the course is taking the place of The Northern Trust which was held at Liberty National Golf Club last year.
The Course
Built on the remnants of a dairy farm, TPC Southwind is a par-70, 7,243-yard tree-lined course that contains undulating narrow zoysia fairways, gnarly 2.5-inch Bermuda rough and Champion Bermuda greens. Many players that grew up in the South or that have become used to chipping and putting on Bermuda will be very comfortable here in the Florida-like climate. Players with past success here like Daniel Berger repeatedly talk about how comfortable they are in this environment. Much like at East Lake in Georgia, the zoysia grass used on fairways is very beneficial for the course due to the Memphis climate which has both sweltering heat in the summer and cold bursts in the winter.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bWhile it is a par-70, TPC Southwind is not a short course like Harbour Town or Pebble Beach. There are seven lengthy par-4s, and the numerous doglegs stretch the course even further. The course also features numerous lakes, streams and ponds which add up to 11 holes with water directly in play. In fact, TPC Southwind has the most “water balls” on Tour by far. Since 2003, TPC Southwind’s 5,989 balls in the water are the most at any PGA TOUR course during that stretch. The second highest course is TPC Sawgrass with a huge drop to 4,809. Because of all the water danger, three different holes average higher than a 5% double bogey or worse rate.
With just two par 5s, scoring chances will be limited. Par 4 scoring will be key as the threat of bogeys will be brought much more into play than has been seen over the past couple of weeks. Overall, there are more holes with a 20% bogey rate than a 20% birdie rate. While the rough isn’t ultra-penalizing, the unpredictability of the Bermuda grass results in numerous bogeys. it becomes a very difficult track to play if you’re missing fairways and greens or splashing it into the water. The greens present another challenge as the fourth smallest on Tour and are heavily guarded by either water or multiple greenside bunkers.
Over the past three events, the course played to 0.63 strokes under par which puts it right near the middle for Tour difficulty. Since 2004, only one winning score has been outside the 9-under to 19-under range. Along with all the course defenses listed above, the area has seen one of the hottest Julys on record with more than 11 days over 100 degrees. There have also been extreme drought conditions with minimal rainfall since May. This will most likely allow the course to play firm and even more challenging.
The course itself does not have many unique holes that stand out. Most feature narrow, tree-lined fairways with either a bunker or water hazard near the landing zone. With birdies coming at a premium, players need to take advantage of the two reachable par-5s that have a birdie or better rate of 43%. While patience is needed to survive the many obstacles on the course, players will need to be aggressive as simply grinding out par won’t get it done here.
Strokes Gained Analysis
Off the Tee
With the approach game getting most of the “ball-striking” love at TPC Southwind, Off the tee is very underrated, in my opinion, for this week as the course presents players with multiple challenges. Not only are there 12 doglegs and the ninth narrowest fairways, but there are multiple water hazards, fairway bunkers and penal Bermuda rough waiting to swallow any errant shots. Similar to Sedgefield, the Bermuda rough is very unpredictable to play from due to the grass stems wrapping around the ball. This produces either fliers over the green or low tumbling approaches that finish well short of the hole. Either way, spin-control is almost non-existent from the rough, and players are typically left scrambling to save par. TPC Southwind is among the 10 toughest courses in both “Rough Penalty” and “Rough Difficulty”. So there is definitely a premium on accuracy off the tee.
As important as it is to consistently find fairways, players also need distance on this course in order to have success on the longer par-4 holes. Total Driving, which equally measures both distance and accuracy will be heavily weighted in my model for this week. As the power game in golf continues to increase we are seeing Driving Distance numbers continue to rise here at TPC Southwind as many players are cutting corners over the edges of doglegs. Last year’s distance off the tee was the highest ever here at 296.1 yards.
Good Drive % on other courses with difficult rough is another key stat this week as it provides a glimpse into which players have the ability to find the green on approach even if they missed the fairway. In last year’s WGC event at this course, 15 of the top 16 players gained in Good Drive %.
Approach
Without a doubt, the most important stat to analyze this week, however, is Strokes Gained: Approach. Almost 45% of strokes gained here have been from that category compared to the Tour average of 35%. Last year, the top five on the leaderboard gained at least four strokes in approach.
TPC Southwind’s tiny greens, perilous hazards and penal rough have always demanded elite iron play. If wayward drives find the rough, GIR% drops from 74% from the fairway to an astounding 41% from a missed fairway. The rough leaves golfers with a choice to go for the green or to play more conservatively and try to avoid a big number, especially if water is in play on that hole. When in the fairway, short to middle iron play will be vital. On average, 66% of approaches this week will come from the 125-200 yard range which is well above the Tour average of 56%.
Around the Green and Putting
With both a below average Driving Accuracy and Greens in Regulation rate, this is a week where players will have to rely on their short game around the greens. While the bunkers are among the easiest on Tour, thanks to the aforementioned rough and the numerous tight lies that surround the green complexes, gaining strokes around these greens ranks among the 10th toughest on Tour.
On the flip side, as you can see from the chart above, literally every single putting category is easier than Tour average. 3-putt % and One-putt %, especially, rank among the easiest on Tour. This dramatically levels the field related to the importance of putting this week compared to overall tee-to-green performance.
Photo courtesy: PGA Tour