Strategy
With a lack of true world-class players at this event, the upper-tier on DraftKings is not as difficult to decipher in my opinion. Will Zalatoris had one great round in Detroit and is not a good fit on these tricky Bermuda greens. Also, the numbers are quite clear-cut that he does not play to his full potential on these shorter, “less than driver”, positional courses that turn into low-scoring contests. He is an easy fade for me at $10.9K.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bJust below Zalatoris is one of the most interesting decisions of the week, Webb Simpson. To be clear, Simpson is a golfer I play regularly, but this week, I am staying as far away as I can. After opening with a 66 in Detroit last week, he proceeded to shoot 1-over for the next three rounds while everyone else was dropping birdies right and left. Having followed his group on Sunday, he just could not gain any consistency. He has lost tee-to-green in his last three starts and is in the midst of his worst putting season since 2016.
Similar to the 3M Open a couple of weeks ago, I am willing to swallow the chalk on the upper half of the board this week. There is one of those “conviction” courses with one of the strongest course history tracks on the PGA Tour. There is an entire gaggle of “course fit” golfers that are very strong plays this week. In that group I would include: Sungjae Im, Billy Horschel, Shane Lowry, Russell Henley, Corey Conners, Si Woo Kim, Denny McCarthy and Kevin Kisner. I will be getting different starting in the $7-$8K range with lower-owned players like Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Davis Riley, Keith Mitchell, Jason Day, Alex Smalley, Harris English and J.J. Spaun.
Keys to Success
Year after year the Wyndham Championship at Sedgefield Country Club has been one of the easiest events to both model and predict the types of players that will fill the front page of the leaderboard . There is a very clear recipe for success on this course and it all starts with driving accuracy. While the rough doesn’t seem penal at only 2.5 inches, the simple fact that it is “Bermuda” is the reason why. Having played from Bermuda rough more times than I care to remember on courses in Texas, it tends to wrap around the ball causes all types of mishits and fliers and is very unpredictable. At Sedgefield the GIR rate from the fairway is the easiest on Tour at an astounding 85%. From the rough or fairway bunkers, it drops down to 54%.
The second clear-cut area for success at Sedgefield is approach shot accuracy from between 100-175. 55% of approaches come from this range making it paramount to select players who are positive with their short irons and wedges. With the greens having so many undulations and ridges, proximity to the hole with those clubs is necessary to have any chance of winning this week.
The final ingredient in our recipe for conquering Sedgefield is Bermuda putting. Those who have played a bunch on Bermuda courses will tell you that Bermuda just putts differently from both Poa annua and Bentgrass. For this week, I am deep diving into the numbers to find which players have shown positive long-term putting on Bermuda surfaces. The results of that search in the form of my SG: Putting sub-model is posted on our Discord.
As mentioned above, this is one of those weeks where course history and course fit really matters. Combine both of those with players who are in good overall form, and there is a very clear picture for finding success this week. One other topic to mention on that subject of recent form. There are a number of players who missed the cut last week (Denny McCarthy and Kevin Kisner) and others (Davis Riley) who have had a couple of poor events. Do not let that shy you away from those players who are either ultra-talented or who fit this course perfectly. I personally will be overweight on all three of those players and expect them to rebound nicely this week.
Greensboro, NC Weather Forecast (August 4th-August 7th)
Top 10 Most Important Stats
*In order of importance.
- Fairways Gained
- SG: APP (100-175 yds)
- SG: Putting (Bermuda)
- Par 4 Scoring (400-450 yds)
- Birdie or Better %
- Course History (Sedgefield CC)
- Bogeys Avoided
- 3-putt Avoidance
- Scoring Chances Gained
- SG: ARG
The Wyndham Championship DraftKings Picks
Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options.
Core Plays
Upper-Tier Plays
Mid-Range Plays
Value Plays
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