The Tour heads to Sedgefield Country Club this week for the Wyndham Championship in Greensboro, North Carolina. This is the final tournament of the 2022 regular season for the PGA Tour, with the top 125 players in the FedEx Cup standings moving on to next week’s Northern Trust at TPC Southwind.
Playing as a Par-70, Sedgefield typically rates out as one of the easiest stops on Tour. The winning score came in at -21 or lower in five consecutive seasons until -15 was good enough to make last season’s 6-man playoff on Sunday afternoon. Sedgefield has two Par-5’s that are reachable by the entire field, while eight of the course’s Par-4’s fall between 400-450 yards.
The Donald Ross-designed course plays just 7,130 yards from the tips and features fast Champion Bermuda greens. Of course, distance off the tee always helps, but fairways are a priority this week. Knowing that the top is going low, we must prioritize birdie opportunities for the third consecutive week. With the majority of the holes being Par-4’s ranging from 400-450 yards, exceptional iron play from the fairway- particularly approaches from the 125-175 range-paired with a hot putter on these undulating green complexes will be the recipe for success this week. For more course tidbits, check out Ron‘s course preview.
When you look at who has won here in the past, and with just six of the world’s Top-30 players in this field, winners at Sedgefield can come from anywhere. Five of the past eight winners opened at 90/1 or higher, and last year’s champ Kevin Kisner was available at 70/1, so sprinkling in a few smaller unit plays on longer-odd outrights makes sense this week. My challenge is that theory goes against recent trends on Tour, where most of this summer’s winners have come from 40/1 and shorter regardless of the field and event. We’ve seen course history play a role here over the years, and I’m weighing it, along with success at corollary courses like Harbour Town, Sea Island, and Sherwood.
My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, so I’ll share my opinion on the best way to bet on each golfer in my player pool at this week’s event. When pricing out finishing position bets, I’ll often lean towards BetMGM even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. Know the rules of the books that you’re betting on!
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bNoonan’s Wyndham Championship Targets
Billy Horschel
Over the years, I’ve definitely been beaten by Billy Ho more times than I’ve bet on him, so it’s time to get even. You can make the case that, outside of his late summer heater in 2018, Billy Horschel is playing the best golf of his career right now. He’s one of the best putters on Tour, and he’s increasingly consistent tee-to-green. The majority of his strokes gained off the tee (SG: OTT) come from his accuracy, which I’m leaning on heavily this week. His adjusted accuracy rate off the tee has been positive in 16 of 17 measured events this season, and he does so without sacrificing much in terms of distance.
He’s also back in the southeast and on his preferred putting surface. No one on Tour has won more events on Bermudagrass over the past decade than Billy Horschel (4), and he has a large sample of success here, including four T11’s or better in his last five appearances. Considering fit and price, he’s the clear play for me near the top of the board.
Si Woo Kim
Sort of like Bubba Watson in years past, Si Woo Kim has a handful of tracks where he plays well annually, and Sedgefield is one of them. In fact, Si Woo has stated that this is his favorite course on Tour, and he shot a 60 here in 2016 on his way to victory. In addition, he’s finished inside the top 5 in each of the past three years, including last year’s final-round playoff. He’s coming to Greensboro on the back of consecutive T15’s including last week in Detroit. So to summarize, the form is good, the history here is strong, and we need to take him at his word that he loves this place.
Aaron Wise
I can’t quit Aaron Wise. Eventually, I’ll be rewarded, and I’m thankful that 40’s are still available even though his recent ball-striking form is why I’ve been all-in this season. Over the past 24 rounds, he ranks sixth in this field in strokes gained approach (SG: APP), with strong supporting numbers in each of the key proximity ranges this week. He’s also made strides on the greens after returning to the long putter that worked for him in college, and the results are encouraging. A repeat of Sunday’s final pairing at Memorial (Horschel and Wise) would bode well for me this week at Sedgefield.
- Win: 40/1 DraftKings
- Top 20: +175 FanDuel
Scott Stallings
Scott Stallings has been a regular on the PGA Tour since 2011, and his eight T20 or better finishes this season are a career-high for the 37-year-old. He’s in the middle of the heater right now, with three consecutive T10 or better finishes where he’s gained strokes across the board in each stop. His approach game has been at the forefront of his recent success, especially in the 125-175 range, which will be prevalent this week. In addition, he’s shown an ability to go low, with a few rounds in the 63-65 range at his past three stops.
- Win: 70/1 DraftKings
- Top 30: +155 FanDuel
FanDuel Finishing Position Parlay
Justin Rose and Alex Smalley – T40 (+301)
This is a relatively new entry to the space, thanks to our friends at FanDuel. Unlike most other books I’m familiar with, FanDuel allows you to parlay finishing position bets. Now, the very premise of the bet is flawed because the expected value is negative since players are competing for the same finishing positions. If the bet is two T40s like this one, when one leg of your parlay finishes above the threshold, there’s now one less spot available in that range for the other leg(s) to also come in. I know the math is terrible. Spare me. But let’s be honest. Some bets are just fun, and these are fun for me. I want to continue to be long on these two young up-and-coming talents.
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.
This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.
Featured Image – Sam Greenwood/Getty Images