The PGA Tour is headed to the Motor City for the Rocket Mortgage Classic! As we are in a little of a mid-summer lull in the golf schedule, there is still plenty of opportunity and value in this week’s event.
After last week’s lackluster and underwhelming 3M Open, we have a better field and course this week at the Rocket Mortgage that is taking place in Detriot. Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris, Cameron Young, and Max Homa highlight the top of the board and provide value to the rest of the field.
Detroit Golf Club is a classical treelined golf course whose roots date back to the late 1800s. The course is a 7,370-yard par 72, featuring Bent/Poa mixed greens. This course has very few water hazards that are trouble off the tee and has shown that ability to be scored on.
We have only seen this course and event three times before on the PGA Tour. The winners of this event were Nate Lashley, Bryson Dechambeau, and Cam Davis. All players with above-average distance off the tee and ones that possess the ability to go low.
It is going to be imperative that golfers are able to make a lot of birdies this week, as the winning score of this event has been -25, -23, and -18. The weather looks pretty benign this week, so I expect a winning score from -17 to -21.
Here are my favorite bets for the week.
Outright : Cameron Young +1800 (BetMGM)
The second that I saw Young in the field, I knew he would be my favorite outright on the board. I was lucky enough to get a 22/1 on Monday morning, but I do not hate the 18/1. Off the heels of a solo runner-up finish at the Open Championship, Young has found something in his game after a small period of middling results.
When the last three winners of this event are Nate Lashley, Bryson, and Cam Davis, it is not hard to figure out that bombers of the ball have had success here. There is truly no better driver of the golf ball than Cam Young in this field. He ranks 1st in SG: OTT, 4th in Driving Distance, and 1st in birdies or better gained.
I don’t think that there would be a better finish to this PGA Tour’s rookie year than finally getting a win after so many close calls. Young has also had his most success on classical tree-lined golf courses. Riviera, TPC Potomac, Harbor Towns, he has top 3 finishes at all three.
I really believe that we see another obvious winner on tour, and Cam Young gets his first victory.
Top 10 Max Homa +270 (FanDuel)
I am going to take a golfer with an extremely high floor at a great number for a top 10. A four-time winner on tour still does not seem to get the respect he deserves in the betting market.
Disregarding his MC at the Open Championship under extenuating circumstances, he has an extremely high floor. In his last 6 starts besides the missed cut, he has a win, a top 5, and no finish worse than 47th. I just believe that he is an extremely safe choice.
Homa ranks 7th in SG: BS and 13th in SG: P; I think that is a combination that will bode well for any golfer. Like Young, Homa has also seen a lot of success on classical treelined golf courses, winner at the Wells Fargo twice and the Genesis Invitational. This price on a top 10 is a great value.
Top 20: Cameron Champ +275 (Betrivers)
There are some simple rules in life, one is that you play Cam Champ after a good result. Last week in defending his 3M title, he got off to a rocky start. However, he fired rounds of 68, 67, and 67 all the way to a 16th-place finish. Champ could have easily packed it in for a missed cut, but he battled for the next three days.
Cameron gained 4 strokes in ball striking and 3.4 putting. I believe that if he can continue his success with the flat stick, he can win. Champ is someone with extremely high upside as he has three wins on the PGA Tour. In all his wins, he popped in his prior start.
At a place where you can dominate with your length off the tee, Champ is a no-brainer for me.
Top 40: Lee Hodges +210 (DraftKings)
This is a slam dunk play that I absolutely love and will be wagering a large amount on. Lee Hodges is on a pretty impressive run of golf right now, and I don’t see that stopping this week. Off a t16 finish at the 3M open where he gained a staggering 9 strokes on Approach. I think this is a spot to back Lee again.
What is promising about Lee is that his best-putting performance this season was at the Travelers, which also features a bent poa mix. The way that he is hitting the ball, I think any semblance of a putter will put him into contention this week. He finished well inside the top 40 that week with a 25th-place finish.
Lee ranks 12th in SG: APP in this field and 29th in Ball striking There is really so much room for improvement with the flat stick that I really think he can find himself at the top of the leaderboard. +210 for him to make the cut and hang around over the week is an absolute steal.
Matchup: Cameron Young over Maverick McNealy -125 (DraftKings)
I am shocked by this line and matchup. I would make Cam Young closer to -150 here, but I will gladly take the -125. I talked a lot about why I love Young so much this week, and I just do not trust Mav McNealy.
Coming off a t49 at the 3M Open, where he lost 2.9 strokes on approach, I expect him to feel the toll of playing 5 weeks in a row and traveling back from Scotland. Maverick has one single top 3 on tour in his career, while cam has five just this season. Young certainly has the higher upside, and it isn’t quite particularly close.
Mav also lost strokes on these exact same types of greens just a few weeks ago at the Travelers. I think that his putter will enable him a middling finish while Cam Young wins this week.
Featured Image: Getty Images Stacy Revere