Betting Preview – 2022 The PLAYERS Championship

Generally regarded as the “5th major”, the stage is set for the 2022 edition of The PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass as 47 of the top 50 players in the world will be in action this week. With the largest prize purse ever of $3.6 million going to the winner, 2019 champion Rory McIlroy summed up what the tournament means by saying, “I wouldn’t consider my career complete if I hadn’t won a PLAYERS Championship.”

Volatility is most definitely the word of the week. Golf is already the most volatile sport, and this week the game is being played on perhaps golf’s most volatile course, TPC Sawgrass. On top of all that, we can sprinkle in some more volatility based on the miserable forecasted weather for the event.

The field contains 144 golfers this week with the top 65 and ties making it through the 36-hole cutline to play the weekend. The only top-50 players not scheduled to play are Bryson DeChambeau, Harris English, Kevin Na, and Phil Mickelson.

PLAYERS Championship Winners/Odds

  • 35 of the last 37 winners played in at least one previous PLAYERS event
  • 10 of the last 11 winners played in at least five previous PLAYERS events
  • The last 14 winners finished 23rd or better in a previous PLAYERS event
  • 9 of the last 11 winners finished fourth or better in a calendar-year start
  • The last 10 winners finished 22nd or better in their previous start
  • The last 23 winners made the cut in their previous start

Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida Weather Forecast (March 10-13)

Player Selection

A couple of things stand out in the “Winning Trends” for this event. First, past experience at TPC Sawgrass is huge. Players who have gone through the grind of playing this Pete Dye masterpiece, who have experienced both success and failure, have an advantage over golfers with less course history. Notice I did not mention “positive” course history. With the event moving to March back in 2019, I am actually throwing those results out the window in the model for this week. It is not enough sample size, and with the volatility of this course, we have just as many missed cuts as Top-10 finishes from the best players in the world here.

The second important trend that stands out is players need to be in quality current form coming into this event. I will especially be targeting players who have been positive with their SG: Approach play over the past 12 rounds.

Three unique splits are used in the model this week. They are Strokes Gained performance on courses with strong fields, on difficult scoring courses, and on courses impacted by poor weather conditions.

With rain, wind, and cold in the mix for this event, I am placing a stronger weight on the “SG: Tough Weather” split. I will specifically be focusing on Europeans who have tons of experience in those conditions when making my betting selections for the week. Fairway finders, the Abraham Ancer and Daniel Berger types, will be specifically targeted.

With so much trouble at every turn, Bogey and Double Bogey avoidance is another stat with added weight this week. Players must keep big numbers off of their scorecards.

Around the green play and scrambling is also huge this week. Every player will end up needing to scramble for par or bogey. Players who can limit the damage and get up and down to save strokes are preferred.

Finally, with over a 39% Birdie or Better rate on the Par-5s, it is essential that players shoot under par on these holes. Par-5 scoring shows up in the model on the Scoring and Core 4 splits this week.

Finally, with all types of players finding success here at TPC Sawgrass, my focus will be on all-around skill players who are generally positive in their tee-to-green game each week, with an added focus on elite ball-strikers.

The PLAYERS Championship Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG) and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.

Outright Betting Selections

*Lines accurate at the time of publication.

Collin Morikawa +1800 

The world’s most elite ball-striker who can shape shots in any direction on a Pete Dye course where precision and accuracy matter? At +1800? Sign me up. Collin Morikawa won the WGC event in a stacked field here in Florida last year. Perhaps the most trustworthy player in the field off the tee, Morikawa gained seven strokes ball-striking here last year. The even better news is that he has gained 11 strokes putting over his last three measured events. If the short game clicks this week, watch out.

(1.12u) PointsBet

Hideki Matsuyama +3100

One of the most consistently good players on Tour, Hideki Matsuyama ranks in the top 12 in the model in seven different metrics. He has gained at least four strokes tee-to-green in seven of his last eight events. He also putts well above his baseline on the Poa trivialis greens he will see this week. Let’s also not forget his opening-round course record 63 that was wiped out back in 2020. This is a very good price for someone with Matsuyama’s talent and current form.

(0.65u) FanDuel

Daniel Berger +4100 (currently +3400)

Coming off a disappointing collapse at the Honda Classic, Daniel Berger will be plenty motivated to attack a course that fits his game. On a course where hitting fairways and greens is a must, Berger ranks in the top 10 in Fairways Gained, Good Drives Gained, and SG: Approach over the last 12 rounds. His low penetrating stinger off the tee will play well in the miserable weather conditions that appear likely. Typically a good putter in general, he should rebound in that area this week. One of the best all-around players in the world.

(0.49u) FanDuel

Brooks Koepka +4800 (currently +4500)

With the strongest field of the year and 3.6 million reasons to keep him motivated this week, I think we will see the best of Brooks Koepka at TPC Sawgrass. His current form isn’t as poor as many think with two top-16 finishes in the last month. He looks healthy, his ball-striking has been on the rebound, and he ranks as one of the top putters in the field on this Poa surface.

(0.42u) FanDuel

Shane Lowry +5000

Coming off a second-place finish at the Honda, Lowry was sharp in all areas of his game. A world-class player with no real weaknesses, the Irishman’s experience in wet and windy conditions should prove valuable this week. Ranking high in SG: Approach, Scrambling and Good Drives Gained, Lowry’s ball-striking combined with his form is the exact combination to target this week.

0.40u DraftKings

More Outright Selections

  • Sungjae Im +5000, 0.40u DraftKings
  • Louis Oosthuizen +6000, 0.34u MGM
  • Jordan Spieth +6000 (currently +5000), 0.34u DraftKings
  • Alex Noren +12000, 0.17u FanDuel

Finishing Position Picks

Top 20

Top 30

Top 40

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Featured Image Credit: Sam Greenwood/Getty Images