With 47 of the top-50 ranked players in the world competing in Ponte Vedra this week, sifting through compelling cheap value is more important than ever. The optimal Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) lineup will undoubtedly be built with some of these higher-variance options sprinkled in. For more tournament content, check out our BetSperts Golf DFS Show and read Ryan Noonan’s Betting Card and Ron Klos’ PLAYERS Preview.
The following names are listed in order of importance and will be updated through Wednesday night accordingly:
Matthew Fitzpatrick ($7700 DraftKings, $9700 FanDuel) — Fitzpatrick will undoubtedly be a popular option on DraftKings specifically given his price discrepancy there. Has also flashed the necessary requirements to play into the weekend in ranking eighth among this field in percentage of drives (67.6%) that landed within the fairway over the last two months. There is admittedly some concern from our team that Fitzpatrick will be too highly rostered to lock in blindly as a value for tournaments, especially during a week in which we expect the wind and rain to reward unique lineups for their volatility. Cement into cash games.
Russell Knox ($7100 DK, $7900 FD) — Not only does Knox fit the bill for quietly ranking seventh among this field in Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking over the last 12 rounds, he’s pin-pointed his Approach shots at the closest proximity to the hole in that span — a statistic that matters since TPC Sawgrass offers the third toughest course on Tour to gain on Approach.
Alex Noren ($7000 DK, $8400 FD) — Much like McCarthy, Noren is viable as a value option across sites since he’s racked up an immaculate recent form with 20.7 Strokes Gained including 10.2 on Approach in his last three events. Fresh off consecutive top-six finishes, fingers crossed the recent-form wave continues for Noren into Saturday at Ponte Vedra.
Denny McCarthy ($6400 DK, $7300 FD) — Viable across sites if looking to spend up for one/two of Jon Rahm or Justin Thomas. McCarthy has encouragingly driven accurately (68.8% of fairways hit) and hunted birdies (13.2 per tournament) over the last six weeks, which is all we can ask for when diving for treasure.
Sergio Garcia ($7400 DK, $9400 FD) — Not for the faint of heart given his poor Strokes Gained: Around the Green (-0.49) over the last two months. Fortunately has been above average in that department (0.3) over the last calendar year and has historically made eight consecutive cuts at TPC Sawgrass. Our preferred pivot from Fitzpatrick in large-field, large-payout tourneys. Also a BetSperts Golf consensus pick to check in as the first-round leader (+8000) at day’s end.
Sam Burns ($7900 DK, $10300 FD) — Obligatory mention since the BetSperts Golf Betting Model is inexplicably high on him this weekend. #CompanyMan
Tom Hoge ($7000 DK, $8600 FD) — Ranking 10th-overall in Approach early into the PGA season, Tommy Tables checks enough boxes from inside 200 yards to lend a high floor to our tournament lineups. The only concern is his historic inability to navigate the Tour’s toughest courses, though three T10s and one victory in 2022 could alter that timid mindset.
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