The best way to cap off an incredible Major Championship run in 2022 is to head to the “Home of Golf”, The Old Course at St. Andrews, for the 150th edition of The Open Championship.
Per Ron‘s course preview, The Old Course is a traditional seaside links course that is very minimalist in design and carved by nature. Its design is a blend of utter simplicity and amazing complexity. There are vast firm fairways, mounds and ridges, pot bunkers, and massive double greens with unique pin placements. It’s a par-72 course that can stretch to as long as 7,536 yards, with the flexibility to make holes shorter based on the weather forecast for that day. Its layout is also unique among professional courses, featuring just two par-3s, two par-5s, and 14 par-4 holes.
As we should expect in Europe, the weather is the course’s best defense. When the wind is quiet, this place can be easily picked by the world’s best. With no trees and little water, the wind and 112 strategically placed bunkers are the course’s only defense. I’m targeting golfers who I believe can handle adverse conditions but contend if the winning score approaches 20-under par.
I’m leaning on Par-4 scoring, 3-putt avoidance, driving distance, and elite wedge play from 125 yards and in due to the unique distribution of holes, big green complexes, and firm and fast fairways.
My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, so I’ll share my opinion on the best way to bet on each golfer in my player pool at this week’s event. When pricing out finishing position bets, I’ll often lean towards BetMGM even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. Know the rules of the books that you’re betting on!
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074b*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.
Noonan’s Open Championship Targets
Justin Thomas
I know he didn’t get it done for me last week, but I love this spot for Justin Thomas. Some are concerned with his performance at last week’s Scottish Open, but I don’t believe there’s anything to worry about regarding his back/health.
It’s difficult to poke a hole in his game right now, and his baseline skills are a perfect fit for what I think it’ll take to win this week, regardless of the conditions. He’s posted the two most impressive ‘weather’ rounds on Tour this season, first at The PLAYERS and then again at Southern Hills during the PGA Championship, so if the wind wants to play a factor this week, I know JT has every shot in the bag. But, in clean conditions, he offers unrivaled upside.
Arguably the best iron player in the world, Thomas gives himself a ton of chances every time he tees it up. Over the past 36 rounds, he ranks inside the top 10 in nearly every key metric in this field. SG: APP, birdie opportunities, ball-striking (SG: BS), driving distance, 3-putt avoidance. The list goes on. And if scrambling is required, he’s second in the field in proximity from under 125 yards and 9th in SG: ARG.
Will Zalatoris
I’m pot-committed on Willy Z, and I can’t stay away when the number is north of 30. I understand if some are hesitant to go back to the well, but…
Wait. No, I don’t. What is there not to like?
He plays his best golf when the spotlight is brightest. He does it against the best fields and on the world’s most demanding tracks. He’s finished T6, 2nd, and T2nd at this year’s majors and made big shots to get into and stay in contention. He hasn’t choked anything away, at least not since Torrey Pines back in January. Folks think of Zalatoris as a poor putter, but when it comes to lag putting and 3-putt avoidance, he ranks inside the top 10 in this field. I’m looking for a repeat of the Southern Hills playoff this week.
- Top Win: 33/1 DraftKings
- Top 20: +110 BetMGM
Sam Burns
Yeah, I know. I’m guilty of anchoring to certain guys and riding them, but I don’t think that’s a poor approach to handicapping golf. Sam Burns is someone that I’ve bet on a lot over the past four years, but it’s paid dividends. Not so much last week, but I digress.
Burns is a winner and in contention most weeks. His approach game has been at the center of his rise, piecing together exceptional approach numbers while maintaining the elite bomb and putt game that first caught my attention in 2018. His around-the-green game has drastically improved, and now Burns is gaining strokes across all metrics for the first time in his career. Of all the top-tier golfers in this field, Burns is the best blend of distance and baseline putting skills. If St. Andrews is going to get wrecked this week, Burns can be the guy that does it.
Tony Finau
Some will prefer to make a finishing position bet here and forego the inevitable pain of another failed outright from Tony Finau. If that’s you, then you don’t deserve the joy that comes along with cashing a Finau winner. Move along!
Finau’s game profiles incredibly well at St. Andrews, and he bagged back-to-back T10’s at this course during the Dunhill Links events in 2018 and 2019. He’s a statistical wet dream this week. His ball-striking numbers have been terrific this season and red-hot of late, ranking 6th in this field over the past 24 rounds. He’s exceptional at Par-4 scoring historically and avoiding the 3-putts as well, ranking seventh in this field over the past 36 rounds in both metrics. He’s also sneakily adept around the greens, which lines up with his Open Championship success. If his putter gets hot as it did in Canada, Finau will be in the mix on Sunday.
Max Homa
I told you last week that Max Homa was the only future I had booked for The Open to date. He cashed a top 20 bet for me last week with a T16 despite coming through on the wrong side of the weather draw. Homa is playing far and away the best golf of his career right now. On the season, he’s gaining strokes across the board and is setting a career-high in every individual category. That’s an impressive combination. With the Par-4 scoring, 3-putt avoidance, driving distance and accuracy off the tee, and short iron proximity boxes checked, there’s no reason to jump off this train now. Some are concerned about his pairing with Tiger Woods on Thursday and Friday, but I think that’s overblown.
- Top Win: 80/1 BetRivers
- Top 30: +130 DraftKings
FanDuel Finishing Position Parlay
Cam Smith and Emilliano Grillo – T40 (+510)
This is a relatively new entry to the space, thanks to our friends at FanDuel. Unlike most other books I’m familiar with, FanDuel allows you to parlay finishing position bets. Now, the very premise of the bet is flawed because the expected value is negative since players are competing for the same finishing positions. If the bet is two T40s like this one, when one leg of your parlay finishes above the threshold, there’s now one less spot available in that range for the other leg(s) to also come in. I know the math is terrible. Spare me. But let’s be honest. Some bets are just fun, and these are fun for me.
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Featured Image – Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images