The 150th Open Championship returns to the hallowed grounds of the Old Course at St. Andrews for the 30th time, continuing a tradition that began in 1873. Considered the oldest course in the world, golf has been played on this ancient turf since the 1400s. Organized by the Royal and Ancient Golf Club of St. Andrews (R&A), it is played here every five years and has hosted more Open Championships than any other course.
Designed by nature itself, the Old Course is on public common land in Fife, Scotland, and is playable by anyone. One of the most unique courses in the world, “The Home of Golf” demands a complete range of skills and excellence with every club in the bag. But perhaps the biggest skills it demands are creativity and courage. With both massive fairways and greens, the holes at St. Andrews present golfers with a myriad of strategic options. Combine that with the volatility of scoring conditions based on the coastal weather and you have the perfect setup for an exciting and unpredictable tournament. It is, in fact, the unpredictability of such a natural links setup pitted against the best players in the world that makes this week such a joy to behold. As 1920 Open winner George Duncan stated, “You can play a damned good shot and find the ball in a damned bad place. That is the real game of golf.”
The Field
The field will contain 156 players competing for the Claret Jug. After 36 holes, the low 70 players and ties will advance to compete in the final rounds. Most of the field has qualified through the top-50 of the Official World Golf Ranking or by ranking in the top-30 on the DP World Tour. With the exception of 25th-ranked Daniel Berger who had to withdraw due to injury, every other high-ranked player will be teeing it up. Along with the inclusion of the LIV Tour golfers, past champions from here at St. Andrews such as Tiger Woods, Zach Johnson, and Louis Oosthuizen are in the field.
Keys to Success
I know it seems we always say this for each major, but this week really is as epic as it gets. The Old Course is the birthplace of golf and the world’s greatest links course – an unpredictable strategic masterpiece that will test a player’s creativity and discipline. And then you have the storylines. Could this be Tiger’s last start at the Old Course? With all of the LIV drama, will this be the last major with all the top players participating? Will the coastal winds increase enough to affect scoring or will the winning score actually get to 20-under? Can Rory finally win another major? This week is as good as it gets.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bThe Old Course is a par-72 measuring approximately 7,300 yards, but dry conditions have the course playing firm and fast. Because of this, it will play much shorter. There are 14 par-4s and only two par-5s and two par-3s. That means there are 16 driving holes this week. Players with distance will have an advantage, but even the shorter ones will get roll on these fairways. Seven of the par-4s play under 400 yards with at least a few being drivable off the tee.
With both massive fairways and greens, the holes at St. Andrews present golfers with a myriad of strategic options. Combine that with the volatility of scoring conditions based on the coastal weather and you have the perfect setup for an exciting and unpredictable tournament. Like it or not, there will be many good shots this week that end up taking a sidewards bounce into a bunker.
Speaking of the weather, as with any links-style course, the wind will be the ultimate decider on how difficult of a test we should expect for the week. This is why with my outright and finishing selections I have focused on players with strong history on past links courses. Even if the winds aren’t as strong as they could be, links courses have similar traits across the board which will still be in play.
Areas I have weighted more heavily in the model include driving distance, approach shots from under 125 yards, and 3-putt avoidance. With the largest greens players might see in their entire careers, the ability to lag putt and avoid 3-putts from distance will be crucial. With a whopping 14 par-4s (including seven under 400 yards), performance on those types of holes is also weighted high. With creativity paramount around these greens, elite short game players and scramblers will have an edge. For that reason, I cannot stay away from Jordan Spieth and Cameron Smith again this week.
Current form has also proven to be very important for having success in past Opens. Eight of the last 10 winners has a top-10 in one of their three previous tournaments before the Open. The last five winners have finished with a top-two in one of their last three events.
To summarize – links course specialists, strong wedge players, golfers with creativity and short game skills around the greens who are great at avoiding 3-putts, and players who are in good form – these are the players to target for the 150th Open Championship.
St. Andrews, Scotland Weather Forecast (July 14-July 17)
Top 10 Most Important Stats
*In order of importance.
- SG: APP
- 3-Putt Avoidance
- Scrambling
- Par 4 Scoring
- SG: Links Courses
- SG: Total Last 24 Rounds
- Opportunities Gained
- Proximity 50-125 yards
- Birdie or Better %
- Driving Distance
The Open Championship Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Rory McIlroy +1200 (boosted from +900)
McIlroy is rarely someone that I play an outright on, but at this moment in time, everything is lining up for him to win his first major in years. He has a top-8 finish in each major this year with five top-8s in his last seven events. With 16 holes to attack with the driver, Rory’s distance and accuracy off the tee can be a huge advantage. On approach he has gained over 30 strokes in his last seven events. His Open history is stellar with three recent top-5s. He is also the best player in the field in both short and long-term history. I could go on, but it’s clear to see why he is the obvious betting favorite.
Jordan Spieth +1800
Spieth is perhaps the most creative golfer on the planet and has the ability to hit every type of shot in his bag. His ability to get up and down from par from extremely disadvantaged positions on the course is next to none. He is one of the best links players in history with a win and three top-10s in his last six Opens. Along with ranking first in my Around the Green model, he has been gaining in all four major strokes gained categories and is trending upwards.
(1.11u) FanDuel
Cameron Smith +2800 (currently +2500)
Similar to Spieth, Smith has the magic beans on and around these greens to scramble for par, avoid three putts, and sink unexpected 30-foot putts. He is deadly with a wedge in his hands and has been one of the best short-range approach players on Tour. After changing to a different driver, his OTT game was much improved last week. And with fairways so wide, any poor drives off the tee will mostly be mitigated this week. He excels in windy conditions and can string birdies together in bunches. This is a great opportunity for Smith to win his first major.
Tony Finau +5500 (currently +5000)
Finau checks so many boxes this week. First of all, his current form has been superb. He has three recent top-5s including a runner-up in Canada a couple of weeks ago. He was also 13th at the Travelers and that was with a cold putter. He’s one of the best long-term Around the Green players in the field and has never finished worse than 27th in The Open. The biggest selling point for backing Finau was the 1.9 strokes gained per round on Links courses since 2015. That is 4th best in the entire field.
(0.36u) BetRivers
Hideki Matsuyama +5500
After analyzing the data and looking at his long-term history there is way too much value at +5500. While he has been inconsistent of late and LIV rumors are swirling he has flashed his world-class skills with a recent 4th place finish at the U.S. Open. Augusta National is one of the strongest course comps with The Old Course. And Matsuyama has a stellar history on that track. His ball-striking is as strong as ever, and last weeks missed cut at the Scottish Open should have been good preparation for this week.
(0.36u) BetRivers
Finishing Position Picks
Top 10
- Rory McIlroy +138 (1u) BetRivers
Top 20
- Xander Schauffele -125 (1.5u) Caesars
- Jordan Spieth -110 (1.5u) BetRivers
- Jon Rahm +100 (2u) FanDuel
- Matt Fitzpatrick +100 (1.3u) DraftKings
- Shane Lowry +130 (1.1u) DraftKings
Top 30 all BetRivers
- Cam Smith +100 (1.3u)
- Patrick Cantlay -120 (1.5u)
- Tommy Fleetwood +100 (1.3u)
- Tony Finau +125 (1u)
- Joaquin Niemann +138 (1u)
Top 40
- Ryan Fox +100 (1.3u) BetRivers
- Louis Oosthuizen -120 (1.5u)BetRivers
- Brooks Koepka +100 (1.3u) BetRivers
- Viktor Hovland +105 (1.2u) BetRivers
- Seamus Power +105 (1.2u) FanDuel
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Photo by Stuart Franklin/R&A/R&A via Getty Images