2022 Scottish Open DFS Strategy and Picks

Keys to Success

With upwards of 75 players from the DP World Tour who have played little to no rounds in PGA Tour events, building a model was close to pointless this week. On top of that, there are just as many PGA Tour players making the trip across the pond to the mostly unfamiliar surroundings of a hybrid links Scottish course. There is a distinct advantage to being a European player at the Scottish Open who has more experience on these courses.

With these factors in mind, there is a very specific group of players that I’m targeting this week for all types of wagers. My player pool has been narrowed down to about 30 total players. It is just one of those weeks where I’m going with either links-course specialists or ultra-consistent players like Patrick Cantlay who have had success on a variety of courses. I also feel very confident in value plays like Victor Perez and Johannes Veerman to make the cut. Both, along with Padraig Harrington and Branden Grace are severely underpriced. Beyond those there are a host of other value plays which can be used to mix and match with 2-3 of the higher priced players.

The first box I am looking to check is with players who have had past success on links-style courses or at The Renaissance Club in particular. When analyzing the Strokes Gained per round history on these types of courses there is a clear top-six in the field led by Xander Schauffele at 2.50. The other five players include Jordan Spieth (2.22), Justin Rose (1.89), Jon Rahm (1.80), Tommy Fleetwood (1.74), and Tyrrell Hatton (1.65). From an outright perspective, many of the top players on the board lack experience on this course or on European links courses in general. We also do not know how motivated the Scottie Scheffler’s of the world will be for this event compared to The Open Championship next week. I would assume a large group of PGA players will be using the Scottish Open strictly as a warm-up event.

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If we look at specific course history at The Renaissance Club, Lucas Herbert has gained 21.4 strokes in the past two events. The entire top-12 list from the three events here is below.

  1. L. Herbert 20.7
  2. Detry 18.7
  3. M. Lee 16.4
  4. Fleetwood 16.4
  5. Van Rooyen 16.0
  6. Wallace 15.7
  7. Rai 13.8
  8. Hatton 13.0
  9. Macintyre 11.8
  10. P. Harrington 11.8
  11. V. Perez 11.7
  12. Palmer 11.7

As mentioned in my course preview, when the weather cooperates, hitting these greens is not even a remote issue. Out of the 77 players to make the cut in last year’s event, only 13 of them had a GIR rate of under 70%. 15 players were above 80%! That being said, with the greens being so huge and undulating, proximity to the hole and positioning approach shots relative to the pin, and leaving an uphill putt is vital. The course definitely favors strong iron players as last year seven of the top-15 on the leaderboard had gained at least 4.6 strokes on approach.

With so many greens being hit in regulation I am targeting quality putters instead of prowess around the greens. Players like Herbert, Fleetwood, Spieth, and Cameron Smith are among the best putters in the field.

As is the case with most ocean links golf courses, the weather will dictate just how tough the course will play. While Thursday morning looks calm, winds increase in the afternoon and then are quite steady in the 13-20 mph range for the rest of the week.

North Berwick, Scotland Weather Forecast (July 7-July 10)

Top 10 Most Important Stats

*In order of importance.

  • SG: APP
  • SG: Links Courses
  • SG: OTT
  • SG: Putting
  • Good Drive %
  • Birdie or Better %
  • Bogey Avoidance
  • 3-Putt Avoidance
  • Driving Distance
  • Scrambling

Scottish Open DraftKings Picks

Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options.

Core Plays

  • Jordan Spieth $8,900
  • Tommy Fleetwood $8,400
  • Robert Macintyre $7,600

Upper-Tier Plays

  • Jon Rahm $11,000
  • Xander Schauffele $9,900
  • Patrick Cantlay $9,600

Mid-Range Plays

  • Cameron Smith $9,100
  • Tyrrell Hatton $7,800
  • Justin Rose $7,900
  • Joaquin Niemann $8,600
  • Ryan Fox $8,500

Value Plays

  • Aaron Rai $7,400
  • Lucas Herbert $7,600
  • Victor Perez $6,900
  • Min Woo Lee $7,300
  • Christiaan Bezuidenhout $7,500
  • Johannes Veerman $7,000
  • Jordan Smith $7,300
  • Haotong Li $7,200
  • Padraig Harrington $6,700
  • Branden Grace $6,700
  • Eduardo Molinari $7,000
  • Alex Noren $7,500
  • Thomas Detry $7,100

Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images