After a down week at the John Deere Classic, the PGA Tour is back in a big way for the Scottish Open. Newly co-sanctioned with the DP world tour, 14 out of the top 15 golfers in the world will be teeing it this week in Berwick, Scotland.
With the 150th Open Championship just one week away, the elite talent on the PGA Tour is looking to get some reps in on the other side of the pond. The Resssinance Club is a links-style course in North Berwick designed by Tom Doak. It has very large and undulating greens and comes in at 7,300 yards.
This venue has been the host of this event for the past 3 years. Benign weather conditions in 2019 and 2021 yielded low scores. Brutal, tough, traditional Scottish weather made things very difficult in 2020. Without much wind in the forecast and recent rains, expect this tournament to resemble that of 2019 and 2021.
I am looking for elite drivers who have shown the capability to go low and have played well in Europe before. With that said, let’s get into my favorite bets for the 2022 Scottish Open!
Outright: Sam Burns +3000 (BetRivers)
I am not sure how much more Burns has to win to be priced with the elites at the top of the board. Sam has won on the PGA Tour 4 times since May of 2021. That makes his +3000 extreme value this week.
Burns checks every box this week. He is an elite driver with above-average distance, he’s won multiple birdie fests, and he finished Top 20 at the 2021 Scottish Open.
Over the past 50 rounds, Burns ranks 8th in Strokes Gained – Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained – Putting. The combination of these two should bode well for his chances this week. I think Sam grabs his 5th this week in Scotland.
Top 10: Ryan Fox +500 (FanDuel)
Ryan Fox has simply been a top 10 machine on the DP World Tour and I do not think that changes anytime soon. +500 is simply too high of a price given his form.
In his last 6 starts on the DP World Tour he has finished, 2nd, 3rd, 2nd, T2, T8, and 1st. Those are truly remarkable numbers and a level of consistency. Ryan has above-average distance off the tee, is an elite iron player, and is riding a hot putter.
Even with the great field last year we still saw a DP World tour player win, I think they hold an advantage this week. Fox at +500 is too good of a number to pass up this week.
Top 20: Max Homa +250 (Caesars)
Max Homa has solidified himself as someone to can close it out when it matters most. He is a two-time champion of the Wells Fargo Championship and also won The Genesis Invitational. These were elite events in stacked fields. And he’s played excellent in the 2021-2022 season with two wins and seven other Top 20 finishes.
Homa is just an elite ball-striker that has no faults in his game at the moment. Over the last 50 rounds, he ranks 14th in SG: APP, 16th in SG: OTT, and, 14th in SG: P. I just think that +250 is a great number on someone that is peaking right now.
He was also able to make the cut at the Open Championship last year in his first appearance. I think he has the game for a links-style test.
Top 40: Aaron Rai +115 (FanDuel)
It goes without saying that the 2020 Scottish Open champion is quite familiar with The Renaissance Club. It is very rare that you can get a past champion of the event, with good recent form at plus money for a top 40. Rai finished T9 last week at the Irish Open, which is promising to see that he is playing well on the other side of the Atlantic.
Aaron is also a pretty consistent cut maker on both the PGA and DP World Tours. He has made the cut in his last six starts and in 10 of his last 11. I think plus money on a top 40 is a steal.
Matchup: Tommy Fleetwood over Tyrell Hatton -120 (DraftKings)
I am not buying the Hatton love this week. His form is very concerning and I trust Tommy more. Tyrell missed the cut at the Irish Open last week, had a middling finish at the U.S Open, and missed the cut at the Canadian Open.
I don’t trust his aggression and problems with most courses. I think Tommy is the play here. He finished runner-up in 2020 and has a stellar Open Championship record. I am willing to lay the juice with Tommy lad this week.
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