2022 Scottish Open Betting Picks Preview

Sitting adjacent to Muirfield on 300 acres along the famous golfing coastline off the Firth of Forth in North Berwick, Scotland is The Renaissance Club. Completed in 2008 by famed architect Tom Doak, it was designed from the swath of an ancient pine forest. With only four holes by the ocean, undulating terrain, thick rough off the fairway, and numerous wooded areas, The Renaissance Club is not a traditional links setup. It does have links qualities with firm turf, and deep pot bunkers and its greens encourage the use of the ground game.

Over the past decade, the club has become a mainstay in the Scottish golfing scene, having hosted three other Scottish Opens along with professional women’s and senior events. This year’s Scottish Open makes its debut as a co-sanctioned event between the PGA Tour and DP World Tour. With many of the PGA players typically viewing this as a warm-up event for The Open Championship, each of the past six winners, and 22 of the past 24 have been a European Tour regular.

Other than being on the Scottish coast and the “linksy” aesthetics that are part of The Renaissance Club, this event hasn’t proven to be the most challenging of Open Championship warm-ups. With calmer winds in play, the tournaments here in 2019 and 2021 averaged 1.87 strokes under par.

The Field

With 14 of the top 15 players in the world making the trip to North Berwick, the field for this year’s Scottish Open will be one of the strongest non-major events ever. The number of PGA Tour players and DP World Tour players is evenly split with 75 players in attendance from each. Motivation for many will be high as three spots in the Open Championship are up for grabs to the top three finishers who have not already qualified provided they finish in the top 10 at Renaissance.

Other than Rory McIlroy and the suspended LIV golfers, every other upper-tier golfer will play. The headliners include world number one Scottie Scheffler, reigning FedExCup champion Patrick Cantlay, major winners Justin Thomas and Matt Fitzpatrick, and other standouts such as Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Cameron Smith, Sam Burns, and Hideki Matsuyama. Also returning is last year’s winner, Min Woo Lee, who defeated Fitzpatrick and Thomas Detry in a three-way playoff.

Keys to Success

With upwards of 75 players from the DP World Tour who have played little to no rounds in PGA Tour events, building a model was close to pointless this week. On top of that, there are just as many PGA Tour players making the trip across the pond to the mostly unfamiliar surroundings of a hybrid links Scottish course. There is a distinct advantage to being a European player at the Scottish Open who has more experience on these courses. With these factors in mind, there is a very specific group of players that I’m targeting this week for all types of wagers.

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The first box I am looking to check is with players who have had past success on links-style courses or at The Renaissance Club in particular. When analyzing the Strokes Gained per round history on these types of courses there is a clear top-six in the field led by Xander Schauffele at 2.50. The other five players include Jordan Spieth (2.22), Justin Rose (1.89), Jon Rahm (1.80), Tommy Fleetwood (1.74), and Tyrrell Hatton (1.65). From an outright perspective, many of the top players on the board lack experience on this course or on European links courses in general. We also do not know how motivated the Scottie Scheffler’s of the world will be for this event compared to The Open Championship next week. I would assume a large group of PGA players will be using the Scottish Open strictly as a warm-up event.

If we look at specific course history at The Renaissance Club, Lucas Herbert has gained 21.4 strokes in the past two events. The entire top-12 list from the three events here is below.

  1. L. Herbert 20.7
  2. Detry 18.7
  3. M. Lee 16.4
  4. Fleetwood 16.4
  5. Van Rooyen 16.0
  6. Wallace 15.7
  7. Rai 13.8
  8. Hatton 13.0
  9. Macintyre 11.8
  10. P. Harrington 11.8
  11. V. Perez 11.7
  12. Palmer 11.7

As mentioned in my course preview, when the weather cooperates, hitting these greens is not even a remote issue. Out of the 77 players to make the cut in last year’s event, only 13 of them had a GIR rate of under 70%. 15 players were above 80%! That being said, with the greens being so huge and undulating, proximity to the hole and positioning approach shots relative to the pin, and leaving an uphill putt is vital. The course definitely favors strong iron players as last year seven of the top-15 on the leaderboard had gained at least 4.6 strokes on approach.

With so many greens being hit in regulation I am targeting quality putters instead of prowess around the greens. Players like Herbert, Fleetwood, Spieth, and Cameron Smith are among the best putters in the field.

As is the case with most ocean links golf courses, the weather will dictate just how tough the course will play. While Thursday morning looks calm, winds increase in the afternoon and then are quite steady in the 13-20 mph range for the rest of the week.

North Berwick, Scotland Weather Forecast (July 7-July 10)

Top 10 Most Important Stats

*In order of importance.

  • SG: APP
  • SG: Links Courses
  • SG: OTT
  • SG: Putting
  • Good Drive %
  • Birdie or Better %
  • Bogey Avoidance
  • 3-Putt Avoidance
  • Driving Distance
  • Scrambling

Outright Betting Selections

*Lines accurate at the time of publication.

Patrick Cantlay +2800 (currently +2500)

Cantlay has the all-around consistent game to maneuver his way around the course, avoid trouble and sink just enough birdie putts to be dangerous. He also continues to fly under the radar. He is one of the top players in the field in BoB% and in Par 5 Scoring. He also ranks 15th in the field on links-style courses averaging 1.55 strokes per round.

(0.71u) BetRivers

Cameron Smith +3000 (currently +2800)

Smith fits two of the key metrics we are looking to target this week. He is the 2nd best player in the field in SG: Approach over the past 36 rounds. He is also one of the best putters in the field who has underperformed in that area as of late. And if the wind kicks up he is one of the best scramblers around the green in the world.

(0.66u) BetRivers

Jordan Spieth +3500 (currently +3000)

With a per/round strokes gained average of 2.22 (53 rounds since 2015), Jordan Spieth is one of the best links players in this field. Even when he was deep in his struggles last year, he still finished runner-up to Collin Morikawa at last year’s Open. Add in a tee-to-green game that has been dominant of late and this course provides Spieth an opportunity to show off his spectacular short game. He is perhaps the most creative player in the world and courses like this bring out the best in him.

(0.57u) BetRivers

Tommy Fleetwood +6000 (currently +5000)

Fleetwood is one of the best links players in the world with numerous wins on these types of tracks. He also ranks third in the field in career strokes gained at The Renaissance Club, including a 2nd place finish in 2020 and a 26th last year. He has had four top-15s worldwide since the Masters. This tee-to-green play has been top-notch gaining strokes on the field in nine of his last 12 measured events.

(0.33u) BetRivers

Robert Macintyre +9000 (currently +8000)

After a rough patch, Scotland’s top-ranked player is trending upwards again with a 13th-place finish in the Irish Open. He has played this course more times than almost any other player in the field and has a 68.1 scoring average in his seven professional rounds here. While Macintyre does not excel in any one category, he is consistent in every area. He grew up playing links-style golf and who loves the windy conditions players will see on the weekend.

(0.22u) BetRivers

More Outright Selections

  • Ryan Fox +5500 (currently +4500), 0.36u PointsBet
  • Tyrrell Hatton +7500 (currently +6000), 0.40u DraftKings
  • Aaron Rai +8000 (currently +7000), 0.25u DraftKings
  • Lucas Herbert +9000 (currently +7000), 0.16u BetRivers

Finishing Position Picks

Top 20

Top 30 all FanDuel

  • Cam Smith -110 (1.5u)
  • Jordan Spieth +100 (1.3u)
  • Sam Burns +115 (1.1u)
  • Viktor Hovland +115 (1u)

Top 40

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Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images