After a couple of weeks in the Northeast, the PGA Tour heads to the Midwest along the banks of the Rock River near the Illinois and Iowa border for the John Deere Classic played at TPC Deere Run. Beginning in 1971 as the Quad Cities Open, the event moved to its current home, TPC Deere Run, in 2000. Other than the Covid-affected year of 2021, the event has been a consistent presence on the Tour schedule.
In what typically ends up as a putting contest that culminates in a shootout, TPC Deere Run is a course with wide fairways, receptive greens, and relatively simple putting surfaces. It is very scoreable for players who excel at managing their way strategically around the course instead of trying to overpower it. It’s no surprise then to see that winners have eclipsed the 18-under mark in each of the last 12 tournaments. Players should be ready to make birdies from their opening hole or prepare to trunk-slam their way out of Illinois by Friday evening.
The Field
The strength of the field is usually among the weakest on Tour given the event’s traditional place on the schedule the week before the Open Championship. That has been worsened even further this year after the 2022 schedule was adjusted to include the Scottish Open the week before the Open Championship as a co-sanctioned event between the PGA Tour and the DP World Tour. With most of the top players choosing to rest for a week before heading overseas, combined with the ever-growing LIV Tour’s roster, the cupboard is very empty for the John Deere Classic.
Daniel Berger stands alone as the only world top-25 player in the field. After Berger, Webb Simpson checks in at 58th, followed by Sahith Theegala at 66th and Christiaan Bezuidenhout at 75th. Those are the four players in attendance from the OWGR top-75. Past winners of this event in the field include last year’s champion, Lucas Glover, Dylan Frittelli, Ryan Moore, Zach Johnson and Steve Stricker.
Keys to Success
In analyzing past winners at the John Deere Classic two key things stick out to focus on for selecting both the outright winner and finishing position bets – wedge play and putting. Players like Jordan Spieth, Zach Johnson, and Steve Stricker have a combined five wins here over the past 11 events. Finding the best wedge players is simple. In the model this week much of the Approach section is weighted towards the best from the proximity range of 75-150 yards. With 42% of approaches coming from that range, many of the past contenders here were ranked high in that split.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bAs far as the best putters, that is a bit more tricky. Obviously, we can target the players that we know are great putters such as Denny McCarthy and Cam Davis. But we have also seen the last two winners, Lucas Glover and Dylan Frittelli, who are known as “bad” putters. A perfect example of a player who fits that mold for this week’s event is Chez Reavie. He is a great ball-striker, excellent with his wedges, but ranks 108th in putting this week. He does, however, have the ability to pop and have a spike week with his putter and his recent form has been trending upwards. I also like to look back at putting history on these greens. And Reavie has gained putting in three of his last five trips here to TPC Deere Run.
Expecting a birdie-fest, I’m highly weighing Birdies or Better and Opportunites Gained within 15 feet. Even though there are only three par-5’s, players must birdie those holes to keep up with the scoring. With both fairways and greens so easy to hit, along with the scoring and putting being so easy, it brings more of the field into contention. There is not as much of a premium on ball-striking because even poor ball-strikers can still hit greens with ease here. This leads to a lot more randomness and volatility. Webb Simpson might be 3-under after the first two rounds and still miss the cut. Bo Van Pelt could get hot with his putter and be leading the tournament. Literally, anything could happen this week which means there is a great chance for a longshot type winner. It is an excellent week to take a chance on “boom or bust” type players who have extremely high upside. Patton Kizzire (+9000) and impressive rookie Chris Gotterup (+13000) are two players who fit that mold this week.
Silvis, IL Weather Forecast (June 30-July 3)
Top 10 Most Important Stats
*In order of importance.
- SG: APP (75-150 yds)
- SG: P (Bentgrass)
- Birdie or Better %
- Opportunities Gained
- Par 4: 400-450
- Par 5 Scoring
- Good Drive %
- Fairways Gained
- SG: Easy Scoring Courses
- Bogey Avoidance
John Deere Classic Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Sahith Theegala +4000 (currently +2500)
While Theegala could struggle this week after his collapse on the 18th hole at the Travelers Championship last week, this early number before Daniel Berger withdrew was too good to pass up. He is the second highest-ranked player in this entire field and has the scoring potential to shoot some really low numbers on this course. He also leads the field in SG: Total over the past 12 rounds.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +4200 (currently +3500)
Bezuidenhout presents a true conundrum this week. He is one of the best players in the field with both his wedges/short irons and his putter. And while he has not yet won on the PGA Tour, he has numerous wins overseas and is a world-class player as evidenced by this 5th place ranking in SG: Total over the past year.
(0.47u) FanDuel
Maverick McNealy +4500 (currently +3000)
Though McNealy has struggled of late, I believe he turned the corner in his last round on Friday at the Travelers. While he ended up missing the cut, he gained 2.3 strokes ball-striking. He finished 18th here last year and leads the field in Birdie or Better rate this season. Bentgrass is also his best putting surface.
(0.44u) BetRivers
Scott Stallings +4500 (currently +3500)
Stallings is one of the ultimate boom/bust type players in this week’s field. In his last four starts, he has either finished in the top-8 (twice) or missed the cut (twice). He has the ability to get hot with his irons and putter as evidenced by his 63 on Sunday at TPC River Highlands. In his last five trips here, he has made the cut four times with three top-25s.
(0.44u) BetRivers
Cam Davis +5500 (currently +4000)
With a combination of consistent approach play, excellent bentgrass putting performance, and past history on shorter courses that are “easy scoring” courses, Davis has the perfect skill set for this course. He has gained in Approach in six of his last seven events, ranks as the 2nd best putter in the field, and is 6th in the Core 4 this week. His lone Tour victory came on a very similar course last year at Detroit Golf Club.
(0.36u) BetRivers
More Outright Selections
- Patrick Rodgers +4500 (currently +5000), 0.44u PointsBet
- Adam Long +5000 (currently +5000), 0.40u BetRivers
- Lanto Griffin +6600 (currently +6000), 0.25u DraftKings
- Alex Smalley +8000 (currently +10000), 0.16u DraftKings
- Patton Kizzire +9000 (currently +8000), 0.22u BetRivers
- Nick Taylor +9000 (currently +8000), 0.22u BetRivers
- Chris Gotterup +13000, 0.15u DraftKings
- Charley Hoffman +15000, 0.13u DraftKings
Finishing Position Picks
Top 20
- Webb Simpson +100 (1.5u) DraftKings
- Adam Hadwin +110 (1.2u) BetRivers
- Charles Howell +150 (1u) BetRivers
Top 30 all FanDuel
- Denny McCarthy +100 (1u)
- Patrick Rodgers +100 (1.2u)
- Maverick McNealy +100 (1.5u)
- Nick Hardy +100 (1.2u)
- Scott Stallings +105 (1u)
- Adam Long +115 (1u)
Top 40 all FanDuel
- Jason Day +115 (1u)
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout +120 (1.3u)
- Cam Davis -110 (2u)
- Lanto Griffin +110 (1.5u)
- Chez Reavie +105 (1.5u)
- Mark Hubbard +120 (1u)
- Alex Smalley +130 (1u)
This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.
Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images