2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview

The PGA Tour moves to the second event of the “Florida Swing” with this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational at the Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida. “Arnie’s Tournament” is a limited field, invitation-only event set at 120 golfers with the top 65 and ties making it through the 36-hole cut line.

Bay Hill is a classical Florida-style golf course with Bermuda grass, thick rough, firm greens and numerous bunkers and water hazards. Thanks to the wind, four of the last five winners have finished with a score of 12-under or worse. A stern test of golf, it definitely has a “Major” feel to it.

The tournament will feature five of the top 10 players in the OWGR rankings. In total, we’ll see 16 top-30 ranked players in the world. With defending champion, Bryson DeChambeau already withdrawing, the main notable players include Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Hideki Matsuyama, Scottie Scheffler, Tyrrell Hatton and Will Zalatoris.

Past Arnold Palmer Invitational Winners/Odds

Arnold Palmer Invitational Winning Trends

  • 6 of the last 7 winners finished T5 in a previous API
  • The last 11 winners made the cut in the previous year’s API
  • 9 of the last 12 winners were in the top 40 in the OWGR
  • The last 12 winners had at least 135 previous career starts
  • The last 12 winners had at least one previous career win
  • 9 of the last 12 winners had at least three previous career wins
  • 11 of the last 12 winners had played in at least three previous APIs
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had at least one previous top 10 finish that season

Player Selection

Looking at the “Winning Trends” section above for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, a few things immediately stand out when searching for a winner for outright bets. Previous success and experience at Bay Hill matter. Multiple trends speak to that fact. Jordan Spieth remarked he had little chance for success his first time here simply because he had no idea where he could miss on his approach shots and not be penalized. Nine of the past 12 winners have been in the top 40 ranked players in the world. Class matters here. Also, each of the past 12 winners had won a PGA Tour event before their win here. Thus, win equity is another important quality. Obviously, recent form always matters. These trends can also be used for targeting players for DFS or other types of bets.

In looking at the data and player quotes, Par-5 scoring is weighted much more heavily for me this week. Those four holes have a birdie or better average of 38%. I also want players who have some level of comfort on Florida-style courses with Bermuda greens. That does not mean one has to be a great putter to play well here. Players like Lee Westwood, Corey Conners and Luke List have had good recent finishes here despite shaky putters.

Almost every player who has finished in the top five over the years has been tremendous tee-to-green. Another angle to attack is with international players. Other than Tiger Woods and Matt Every, recent winners have been non-American golfers. Bay Hill is similar in many ways to certain courses in the Middle East that are used on the DP World Tour. Also, the penal and “breezy” nature of Bay Hill resembles many European and Australian-style courses.

I will also be targeting players highly rated in Total Driving, which is a combination of Fairways Gained and Driving Distance. With this course being so difficult, past success on other “Major-style” courses is also included in the model this week.

Finally, long-iron play from 200+ yards will be crucial, especially with such a high percentage of approaches from that range. Related to that is par-3 scoring at Bay Hil, with each of the par-3s being in the 200-230 yard range. Every winner at this event over the past seven years has been ranked fourth or better in par-3 scoring for the week. That is an amazing stat nugget and emphasizes the importance of using quality par-3 players from that yardage range.

The Arnold Palmer Invitational Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG) and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance



Outright Betting Selections

*Lines accurate at the time of publication.

Hideki Matsuyama +2800

(0.72u) DraftKings

Quite frankly, this is a disrespectful price to a world-class player who has won three times in the past 11 months. Hideki Matsuyama’s ball-striking has been top-notch in his current run and he has even gained 9.4 total strokes putting over his last four events. Whether it’s tee-to-green, the “Core 4” model, or success on other “Difficult Scoring” courses, Matsuyama ranks highly in almost every single metric.

Sungjae Im +3000

(0.67u) BetMGM

Though Sungjae Im is coming off of a missed cut at the Honda, he nonetheless rates as the top player in the entire model this week. Yes, you heard that right. Better than Rahm. Better than McIlroy. He has been remarkably consistent and fits this course perfectly. He is strong off the tee, has the short game to scramble for par when he needs to and favors Bermuda greens. He finished third in both 2019 and 2020, and should be in contention to the end.

Matthew Fitzpatrick +3000

(0.67u) PointsBet

Matthew Fitzpatrick checks so many of the “Player Selection” boxes this week. He is an international player who thrives on difficult courses. He has impeccable course history with four top-13 finishes here in the last five years. He is also the best Bermuda putter in the entire field. He is also in really good form with five top-11 finishes in other strong field events since the start of last year.

Will Zalatoris +3100

(0.67u) FanDuel

The best player in this field not to have won yet, Will Zalatoris ranks fourth overall in the model this week. He’s fifth in Approach, second in Tee-to-Green and 10th in the “Core 4”. He finished 10th here last year and tends to thrive on longer, more difficult courses where having a strong long-iron game is necessary. Speaking of that, he is fifth in Proximity from 200+ yards and third in Par-3 Scoring from that same range. Even with putting being his main weakness, he has been positive in his last three events on Bermuda greens, gaining an average of 3.3 strokes per round.

Marc Leishman +3600

(0.56u) FanDuel

It has been a while since Marc Leishman has won on Tour. And the way his game is trending upwards, this might be the week. Finishing sixth overall in the model, he is consistent across the board in every single area. That is exactly the type of player who performs well at Bay Hill. He is a tremendous putter on fast Bermuda greens and loves this course as evidenced by both a first and second-place finish here over the past five years.

More Outright Selections

Finishing Position Picks

Top 10

  • Rory McIlroy +210, (currently +150) (2u) FanDuel

Top 20

Top 30

Top 40

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Featured Image Credit: Warren Little/Getty Images